2026.09.22 | AC | Materials | China Cement 1H26 Review Pt.2

摘要

The concrete and cement products manufacturing industry (Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities C302) is one of the largest segments by scale within the non-metallic mineral products sector. Its offerings span ready-mixed concrete, precast concrete piles, precast concrete components, concrete drainage pipes, concrete utility poles, and cement pressure pipes, broadly serving real estate, infrastructure, water conservancy, municipal pipe networks, and new energy projects. In the first half of 2026, under the impact of the ongoing downturn in real estate development investment and a slight contraction in infrastructure investment, the industry overall demonstrated operational patterns characterized by "falling volumes and prices, compressed profitability, and structural divergence." According to the CCPA Express, nationwide output of ready-mixed concrete dropped 12.9% YoY in the first half of the year, precast concrete pile production fell 20.6% YoY, and operating revenue of concrete and cement products enterprises above designated size declined 22.22% YoY, extending the downward trend across major economic metrics. Concurrently, with water conservancy investment sustaining elevated levels, prefabricated buildings and new energy engineering driving structural growth in precast components, and the transition toward green, low-carbon, and solid-waste resource utilization accelerating, structural upgrading opportunities are emerging amid this top-line contraction. Drawing upon official public data, this report systematically reviews the industry's current operating status, supply and demand landscape, value chain costs, policy constraints, technological directions, competitive dynamics, and core risks.

V. Green and Low-Carbon Transformation and Environmental and Energy Consumption Policy Constraints

5.1 Industry Core Environmental and Low-Carbon Constraint Framework

The policy framework governing the green, low-carbon transition of the concrete and cement products industry primarily comprises:

First, the Carbon Peaking Implementation Plan for the Building Materials Industry. It sets out the carbon peaking roadmap for the sector. The crux of carbon reduction across concrete and cement products lies in reducing cement dosage and raising the proportion of solid-waste admixtures: cement is the primary source of embodied carbon emissions in concrete, and substituting it with high-volume mineral admixtures, low-carbon cementitious materials, and recycled aggregates can materially reduce carbon emissions per unit of product. [MIIT et al., Carbon Peaking Implementation Plan for the Building Materials Industry]

Second, green building material product certification and promotion. Green building materials certification spans precast components, ready-mixed concrete, masonry materials, and other categories. In 2025, the nationwide scale of green building material products surpassed 250 billion yuan across 85 certified categories. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue from green building materials exceeded 61 billion yuan, up approximately 12% YoY, as policies mandating preferential procurement of green building materials in government-invested works and public procurement projects continued to gain traction. [China Building Materials Federation]

Third, the normalization of environmental oversight. Environmental controls governing dust, washing wastewater, solid waste residue, and noise at batching plants, alongside hazardous waste management requirements (such as waste mold release agents and admixture packaging) at precast facilities, continue to intensify. In parallel, environmental crackdowns on sand and gravel quarries and tightening bans or limits on natural sand mining are compelling the industry to adopt manufactured sand and recycled aggregates.

Fourth, the policy orientation toward solid-waste resource utilization. The building materials sector comprehensively utilizes over 1.8 billion tons of industrial solid waste per year. Large-scale incorporation of fly ash, ground granulated blast-furnace slag, and steel slag powder into concrete, together with the rollout of construction-and-demolition recycled aggregates in municipal non-structural components, represents a key trajectory for the sector's green transition. [China Building Materials Federation, Report on High-Quality Development of China's Building Materials Industry]

5.2 Core Paths and Industrial Value of Green Transformation

The primary technical paths for the industry's green transition include:

l High-volume mineral admixture concrete: Raising the proportion of fly ash, ground granulated blast-furnace slag, steel slag powder, and limestone powder reduces cement consumption per cubic meter and lowers embodied carbon emissions while absorbing industrial solid waste.

l Recycled aggregate concrete: Crushing and screening construction and demolition waste yields recycled aggregates suitable for road bases, permeable concrete, and non-load-bearing precast components. Current bottlenecks include high water absorption and strength variation in recycled aggregates, meaning applications in load-bearing structural components still require updated technical standards and engineering verification.

l Ecological concrete (vegetation concrete): Deployed across river revetments and reservoir slopes, it integrates structural engineering protection with ecological restoration, addressing the technical demands of water conservancy and water network projects.

l Low-carbon cementitious materials: Forward-looking technologies such as alkali-activated materials and low-carbon clinker remain in the R&D and pilot demonstration phases.

l The green transition represents both a compliance baseline and an avenue for differentiated competition: companies with green building material certifications and carbon footprint accounting capabilities secure preferential status in government project tenders, realizing superior product price premiums and order stability relative to conventional peers.

VI. Building Industrialization and Prefabrication Upgrading

6.1 Core Segments of Prefabricated Products

Prefabricated buildings and precast construction constitute the industry's most significant medium- to long-term structural growth driver. Core segments include:

Prefabricated building components: Precast composite slabs, precast wall panels, precast stairs, precast beams and columns, and other products are seeing steadily rising adoption rates across affordable housing, schools, hospitals, and municipal public buildings. Standardized design and the compilation of universal component drawing catalogs are essential to cutting precast component costs and raising market penetration.

Municipal precast components: Precast utility tunnel sections, precast box culverts, subway shield segments, and precast inspection chambers align with urban renewal initiatives and underground space development.

Water conservancy precast components: Precast box culverts, ecological slope-protection blocks, precast pipe piles, and precast sluice piers serve hydraulic infrastructure projects. Strong water conservancy construction investment in the first half of 2026, which reached 515.1 billion yuan, provided sustained demand support for hydraulic precast components. [Ministry of Water Resources]

New energy precast foundations: Precast wind turbine foundations, photovoltaic pile foundations, and precast anchor bolt foundations represent rapidly expanding sub-segments in recent years.

6.2 The Reshaping Effect of Prefabrication Upgrades on the Industry

The prefabrication upgrade is exerting a structural impact on the sector. On one hand, factory production of precast components improves quality consistency and construction efficiency, matching the objectives of building industrialization and receiving policy endorsement. On the other hand, prefabrication imposes stricter requirements on corporate capital reserves, engineering capabilities, and standardization levels, accelerating polarization across the industry. The primary bottlenecks confronting industry development are that local structural design conventions still lean toward cast-in-place methods, while integrated collaborative frameworks across standardized component design, manufacturing, assembly, and quality acceptance remain underdeveloped, curbing prefabrication penetration. Moving forward, refining standardized generic component catalogs, establishing direct BIM design-to-production workflows, and training specialized prefabricated construction crews will be essential to unlocking demand for prefabrication.

VII. Intelligent and Digital Transformation and Upgrading

7.1 Core Directions of Intelligent Transformation

Intelligent transformation within the sector centers on the following avenues:

Intelligent batching plants: Automated batch weighing, automated mix-ratio optimization, automated vehicle dispatch systems, and real-time quality data uploads improve batching precision and operating efficiency while reducing manual errors.

Smart manufacturing in precast plants: Automated concrete pouring and distribution, intelligent curing kilns, AI-driven visual defect inspection, and component ID tagging with full lifecycle traceability lower labor overhead and minimize dimensional tolerances.

Digital twins and BIM integration: Linking BIM models across manufacturing, logistics, and on-site assembly enables end-to-end digital coordination throughout the design, production, transport, and erection of precast components.

Smart logistics: GPS fleet tracking and misdelivery prevention systems for transit mixers and component transport vehicles streamline dispatch logistics.

7.2 Industrial Value of Digital Transformation

The value of digital transformation lies in tightening quality controls (lifecycle traceability satisfies statutory lifetime liability mandates for construction projects), trimming operational costs (cutting raw material waste and labor inputs), and enhancing bidding competitiveness (digital proficiencies serve as evaluation scoring advantages in major tenders). For the extensive base of small and medium-sized enterprises with constrained capital, the upfront investment threshold for digitalization remains substantial, which will drive further divergence in digital adoption between leading industry players and smaller peers.

VIII. In-Depth Analysis of Core Industry Risks

First, the risk of sustained downstream demand contraction. The deep slump in real estate development investment is the industry's most significant external headwind. Should floor space of property new starts continue to slide at double-digit rates, concrete and precast pile demand across building construction will remain under pressure. Meanwhile, infrastructure investment growth has slipped into negative territory (-2.4% in the first half of the year); if local fiscal constraints tighten further, infrastructure counter-cyclical support may fall short of expectations. [National Bureau of Statistics]

Second, price competition and margin deterioration risks. Against a backdrop of sector-wide overcapacity, aggressive price competition continues to erode margins. The decline in operating revenue for enterprises above designated size (-22.22%) outpaced the drop in physical output, underscoring ongoing downward pressure on unit realizations. Barring a rebound in demand, the industry's loss-making footprint could widen further. [CCPA Express]

Third, accounts receivable and liquidity risks. The industry operates extensively on credit terms, burdened by prolonged payment settlement periods and high proportions of withheld warranty retention funds. In regions facing heavier fiscal strains, collection risks on government and LGFV projects have escalated; small and medium-sized enterprises exhibit fragile cash flow profiles, leading to an accumulation of bad-debt risks.

Fourth, raw material price volatility risks. Cement and aggregate prices remain sensitive to upstream supply constraints and regional supply-demand conditions. If raw material costs experience temporary surges that cannot be passed through to product selling prices, already depressed margins will be further squeezed.

Fifth, environmental and compliance risks. With environmental inspections, dual control of energy consumption, and carbon footprint accounting mandates tightening, non-compliant plants face forced operational shutdowns and rectifications. Furthermore, as carbon labeling and carbon footprint disclosures are increasingly incorporated into tender requirements, enterprises that fail to prepare early risk being disqualified from major project bids.

Sixth, regional overcapacity risks. Certain regions have seen disorderly capacity expansion in precast components, where localized gluts intensify price wars and leave newly commissioned projects exposed to low capacity utilization rates.

IX. Segment Comparison and Value Differentiation

Data source: CCPA, Express Report on Output and Economic Indicators of the Concrete and Cement Products Industry for January–June 2026 (based on National Bureau of Statistics data).

The underlying rationale governing value differentiation across product categories lies in end-market demand structures: categories closely tied to water conservancy, new energy, and municipal renewal exhibit superior demand resilience and profitability, whereas categories heavily reliant on real estate construction starts face the most pronounced near-term headwinds.

X. Industry Development Trends and Comprehensive Conclusion

10.1 Core Industry Development Trends from 2026 to 2030

First, total volume enters a plateau contraction phase, with structural upgrading taking center stage. Against the backdrop of a secular real estate adjustment, aggregate volume in the concrete and cement products industry can hardly repeat its past high-growth phase, with sector opportunities concentrating instead in high-value-added avenues such as prefabrication, greenification, and specialized products.

Second, water conservancy and new energy represent major incremental demand sources. With water conservancy construction investment remaining at the trillion-yuan mark for consecutive years (reaching 1,284.8 billion yuan in 2025) and new energy installations (wind turbine foundations, photovoltaic pile foundations) steadily expanding, structural demand will be unlocked across cement pressure pipes, precast piles, and precast components. [Ministry of Water Resources]

Third, green and low-carbon development ties deeply into solid-waste recycling. The industrial application of high-volume mineral admixtures, recycled aggregates, and low-carbon cementitious materials will reshape the industry's cost structures and competitive moats, making green building material certification an essential threshold for market access.

Fourth, industry concentration climbs gradually as outdated capacity accelerates its exit. Environmental compliance, carbon accounting, quality traceability, and financial entry barriers continue to rise, quickening the shakeout of small and medium-sized operators. Market share is poised to consolidate steadily among leading enterprises possessing scale, capital, green credentials, and regional layout advantages.

Fifth, deep penetration of intelligent and digital technologies. Intelligent batching plants, smart precast manufacturing, and full-chain BIM integration will become standard baseline capabilities for top-tier players.

10.2 Comprehensive Conclusion

In the first half of 2026, pinched between the profound real estate downturn and contracting infrastructure investment, the concrete and cement products industry continued to experience falling volumes and prices alongside compressed profitability. Physical output fell YoY across major categories, including ready-mixed concrete, precast piles, drainage pipes, and utility poles, while operating revenue among enterprises above designated size fell 22.22% YoY, leaving the sector in a deep cyclical adjustment. At the same time, structural highlights remained clear: cement pressure pipes bucked the broader decline on the back of elevated water conservancy investment, while prefabricated building components, new energy precast foundations, and green building materials maintained expansion, reflecting a transition from volume-driven to structural upgrade-driven growth.

Looking ahead, the sector's central operational friction has evolved from "inadequate supply" to the "coexistence of contracting demand and structural overcapacity." Capacity consolidation and upgrading will proceed simultaneously: uncompetitive facilities will exit at an accelerated pace, and industry leaders will expand market share by leveraging green, prefabricated, and digital proficiencies. Structural demand originating from water conservancy, new energy, and urban renewal will continue to provide runway for quality operators. For industry participants, scaling down real estate exposure, expanding footprint across water conservancy and new energy verticals, building out green low-carbon and digital competencies, and strictly mitigating accounts receivable risks represent the essential roadmap for navigating this industry cycle.

Risk Warning: The preceding content has been compiled from public information and industry Channel Checks; it does not constitute investment advice of any kind. Readers should proceed at their own risk.