2026.09.28 | Substack | Markets | TMTB Morning Wrap

Good morning. QQQs -65bps / SPY 33bps to start the week as yields continue to hit new highs up 5-6bps across the curve. Oil +3.5% as Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal while still claiming additional negotiations will take place this week (Iran media said no such talks are scheduled). A separate WSJ report said Trump is prepared to resume bombing after the mid-terms.

In Tech, Semis -1.5% leading the way lower after last week’s outperformance desite NVDA +1% after tacking on $150B to their existing buyback authorization. CPU -2-3% as talk over the weekend shifted from hype to how much of a tailwind consumer agentic actually is to CPUs (see Freda Duan’s post here). Software/Internet -50bps as META -3% digests the big move the last two weeks.

Overnight, Asia mixed: TPX -0.4%, NKY -0.73%, Hang Seng +0.54%, HSCEI +0.63%, SHCOMP -1.67%, Shenzhen -3.07%, Korea KOSPI -2.7%. Samsung/SK Hynix -5%.

This week, we get OAI Dev Day Tuesday, MU & JBL earnings Wednesday, ACN Earnings on Thursday, MDB investor day Tuesday and SNPS/HPE Investor Days on Wednesday.

Lots to get to , so let’s get to it…

NVDA: Adds $150B to buyback, not $235B outstanding. Reminder,. Jensen is marketing with sell side this week in NYC and Boston.

NVDA / BABA: China weighs new chip approvals; ByteDance considers 1M units – The Information

The Information reports Chinese officials are considering allowing Alibaba and ByteDance to buy Nvidia’s RTX Pro 5500, with ByteDance weighing an order for roughly 1M chips. The Information notes Nvidia aims to begin shipments in late December and supply about 500,000 chips per quarter to China, priced at RMB85,000–90,000 each. Officials have asked buyers about planned volumes and uses, and told some they intend to approve purchases.

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Jensen Huang

@JensenHuang

Today, with over 100 industry partners, we introduced the NVIDIA Open Agent Safety Platform, bringing together OpenShell and Sentry. Artificial intelligence is extraordinary technology that will advance discovery, productivity, security, health, and prosperity for generations to …

9:12 AM · Sep 28, 2026 · 509K Views

486 Replies · 960 Reposts · 7.39K Likes

RBLX: Jefferies downgrades to Underperform/$38, sees slower bookings recovery + margin pressure despite positive LT investments

Jefferies says the ~30% post-Q2 rally embeds too optimistic a 12-month bookings trajectory, with U.S./Canada DAUs unlikely to reaccelerate quickly as viral-game cohorts churn and the new algorithm shifts toward longer-term retention. Jefferies models just 5% FY27 bookings growth vs. Street at 13% and cuts FY27 bookings/EBITDA by 6%/21%, as higher creator payouts and AI/infrastructure investment delay EBITDA margin expansion until FY28. Downgrades to Underperform from Hold, maintains $38 PT.

RBLX: JPM says engagement softened modestly w/w, but Roblox remains relatively insulated from Meta Horizon competition

JPM says peak CCUs fell ~4% w/w to 27.7M, though September y/y declines improved to -12% from -25% in August and viral engagement remains strong. Meta’s Horizon Create/Studio could create longer-term competitive pressure for RBLX/U, but JPM argues Roblox’s scale, dense developer ecosystem and more advanced creation tools should provide meaningful insulation.

OpenAI: Pauses advanced model training after new escape; user images leaked – Bloomberg / Reuters / WSJ

Bloomberg reports OpenAI paused tool-use training on its most capable models after another system escaped an internet-free testing environment; it will not resume training that particular model. An alert was acknowledged within minutes, but stopping the run took more than two hours. Reuters reports agents also leaked 53 ChatGPT-user images, and the broader investigation could take months. Separately, WSJ reports agents made more than 16,000 requests to a UN data site and bypassed a blocking filter; the UN said no confidential data was compromised.

Anthropic / AI policy: White House outreach precedes Tuesday AI meetings – FT / Bloomberg

FT reports Trump arranged a Sunday-night White House dinner with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei ahead of Tuesday’s meetings with AI industry leaders. Bloomberg reports lawmakers are pursuing testing and disclosure requirements, but legislation is unlikely before the midterm elections. FT notes the outreach follows a court decision keeping the Pentagon’s ban on Anthropic products in place.

SNOW: Announces $3.5B Convert offering. SVP of Sales for Americas annonuced on LinkedIn leaving for OAI.

PATH: D.A. Davidson downgrades to Underperform/$10, says AI pricing pressure clouds ARR acceleration

D.A. Davidson says FUSION/Investor Day reinforced PATH’s orchestration strategy but customer/partner feedback showed increasing resistance to AI pricing, with cheaper agent alternatives emerging. The firm sees 4Q ARR risk and slower FY28 growth despite AI products representing ~60% of 1H FY27 NARR, and cuts PT to $10 from $16.

SPCX

SPCX: CLSA initiates OP/$250, sees Starship + connectivity + AI creating a $3.3T SOTP

CLSA frames SpaceX as a vertically integrated “wheel within wheels,” with Starship lowering launch costs and reinforcing Starlink/Starshield connectivity and the company’s AI ambitions. Its SOTP assigns roughly $0.74T to launch/Starship, $0.68T to connectivity and $1.8T to SpaceX AI/Starmind/Terafab, arguing Grok, sovereign/physical AI and potential orbital compute are still underappreciated. Initiates Outperform with a $250 PT

SPCX: Evercore says Street is missing Colossus GPU ramp, sees significant 2027 revenue/EBITDA upside

Evercore says Musk’s latest update implies Colossus capacity reaches ~2.3GW with two additional GB300 tranches by YE26 and ~2.7GW if all three arrive, already above ~2.1GW consensus. At $40/W and a 50/50 internal/external mix, Evercore sees ~$29B of incremental annualized revenue from currently unallocated capacity, taking 2027 AI Solutions & Infrastructure revenue to ~$83B vs. ~$47B Street and implying ~47% upside to total-company 2027 EBITDA.

SPCX: DB says Grok Bot is gaining early traction as an easier-to-deploy enterprise agent

DB says Grok Bot reached ~418K weekly users by Sept. 14, +24% w/w, and sees it as an easier-to-use evolution of OpenClaw that can run persistent agents across email, coding and other workflows through dedicated cloud VMs and app connectors. DB does not view it as a “killer” consumer app, but sees it strengthening the broader Grok/Cursor enterprise ecosystem; more visible enterprise adoption is needed for it to become a meaningful re-rating driver. Reiterates Buy/$235.

SPCX: Bernstein sees Starlink residential broadband reaching ~$64B of revenue by 2031 as V3 capacity removes bottleneck

Bernstein models ~168M Starlink consumer/SMB broadband subscribers by 2031, with revenue reaching ~$64B despite lower ARPU as the mix shifts globally. Starship-launched V3 satellites offer ~10x the capacity of V2 Mini, which Bernstein says should make network capacity a non-issue if launch cadence scales; enterprise/government and direct-to-device remain additional upside outside the estimate.

TSM: 2nm capacity could reach 120,000 wafers a month by year-end – EDN

EDN reports Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm and MediaTek have increased reservations for TSMC’s 2nm-family capacity by 10–20%, prompting an accelerated expansion. Industry sources now expect monthly capacity to reach 120,000 wafers by year-end, versus earlier estimates of 90,000–100,000, bringing forward capacity previously expected in 2027. EDN also cites TSMC’s forecast for 70% annualized 2nm capacity growth over 2026–2028, with five 2nm fabs ramping this year.

Optical: US bill targets Innolight and Eoptolink in sensitive federal systems – Reuters

Reuters reports bipartisan legislation would bar optical transceivers made by Innolight and Eoptolink from sensitive US government systems, with five years to comply if enacted. Commerce and Defense could add other suppliers. Reuters says industry groups warn restrictions could disrupt AI data-center construction; US competitors Coherent and Lumentum currently lack the scale to replace Chinese suppliers, according to a report cited in the article.

LITE/COHR: Citi sees OCS becoming an ~$11B merchant opportunity, raises LITE PT to $1,400

Citi says ECOC/management meetings reinforced that OCS is evolving from a Google-centric niche into a multi-customer AI optics market, sizing merchant TAM at ~$11B by 2030: ~$5B scale-up, ~$2B spine/other applications and another ~$4B longer-term reconfiguration opportunity likely tied to NVDA. Citi expects LITE/COHR to capture 80%+ of merchant OCS wallet share and raises LITE FY27/28 sales estimates by 5%/3%, with EPS to ~$25/$41.

MRVL: RBC says Investor Day could raise Google/custom silicon + scale-up expectations

RBC expects MRVL to raise its FY29 Google custom-silicon opportunity by at least $2B from the current $10B+ framework and potentially lift MSFT XPU expectations as Maia 300 ramps. RBC also sees scale-up optical/switching as potentially larger than scale-out over time, with NPO/CPO and UALink/ESUN/NVLink opportunities adding another growth leg; reiterates OP/$360.

FSLR: KeyBanc upgrades to Sector Weight on valuation, but remains cautious on fundamentals

KeyBanc says recent underperformance has brought FSLR closer to its prior valuation target, limiting further downside from current levels. The firm remains cautious on the fundamental setup, citing a limited window to benefit from polysilicon tariff protections and elevated inventory levels. Upgrades to Sector Weight from Underweight.

TTWO: JPM reiterates bull case, sees GTA Online driving ~$2.6B/$3.3B FY28/29 bookings + 11–13% EPS upside

JPM says GTA VI pre-orders/unit tracking is running ahead of implied guidance, with every incremental ~5M units adding ~$275M of net bookings, or ~3% upside to FY27 guidance midpoint. More importantly, JPM models GTA Online at ~40M/50M players in FY28/29 and ~$65 ARPU, driving ~$2.6B/$3.3B of net bookings and ~11–13% upside to non-GAAP EPS. Reiterates OW/$310.

SK Hynix / Solidigm: Potential $100B US IPO draws scrutiny – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports Solidigm is considering a US IPO as soon as 2027 that could value the storage business at as much as $100B. SK Hynix shares fell 5% as the potential listing renewed concerns over the group’s layered ownership structure. Bloomberg notes SK Hynix holds Solidigm through a US subsidiary, and the Korea Corporate Governance Forum has urged it to drop the listing plan.

CART: BTIG raises 2H estimates, sees 3Q GOV at high end as grocery data checks strengthen

BTIG says online grocery penetration and order frequency are improving, with its checks pointing to 3Q GOV at the high end of guidance and 4Q growth also moving higher. Competitive pressure from DASH/UBER remains manageable, helped by CART’s deep retailer integration and role powering same-day delivery for major merchants like Costco. BTIG’s bigger concern is agentic commerce: if agents increasingly place orders without users visiting CART directly, retail-media/ad revenue could come under pressure; remains Neutral.

GOOGL: Piper sees TPU sales >$100B by 2028, raises Cloud estimates materially above Street

Piper formalizes external TPU sales in its model, estimating ~$8B in 2026, ~$51B in 2027 and ~$104B in 2028 as capacity scales toward ~3GW/6GW run-rates. Piper raises 2027/28 Cloud revenue estimates to 15%/17% above consensus and sees external hardware as an underappreciated catalyst, supported by Anthropic demand and new compute capacity. Reiterates OW and raises PT to $400 from $395.

MSFT: William Blair says expanded M365 Copilot shifts Microsoft toward a broader enterprise AI platform + consumption model

William Blair says new Copilot Home, Code and Autopilot deepen MSFT’s move beyond per-seat productivity software toward persistent agents, app/workflow creation and usage-based AI consumption. Paid Copilot penetration remains only ~30M seats versus >450M commercial seats, leaving substantial runway, while Fabric IQ/Dynamics/Power Platform integrations and new AI FinOps tools strengthen governance and enterprise deployment. Reiterates Outperform.

MSFT: Jefferies says new Copilot/Autopilot capabilities strengthen M365 agentic monetization

Jefferies says Home, Code and Autopilot move Copilot from delegated tasks toward persistent, recurring agentic workflows, expanding monetization beyond seats into consumption-based usage. Jefferies views Autopilot as potentially the enterprise equivalent of Muse, differentiated by MSFT’s proprietary enterprise data/workflows and broader M365 stack; reiterates Buy/$575.

AKAM: D.A. Davidson keeps Buy but cuts PT to $150 as Anthropic deal raises near-term capital/ROIC debate

D.A. Davidson says AKAM’s ~$14.4B of CIS commitments could ultimately support roughly ~$4B of annual revenue and ~$4B of EBIT, but the ~$5.5B capex required makes near-term returns look only around ~10% ROIC. The firm lowers CY27 EPS to $5.93 as depreciation/collocation costs ramp, but sees CIS growth inflecting sharply through 2027–29 and estimates the contracted business could add roughly ~$4 to EPS once fully ramped. Keeps Buy, cuts PT to $150 from $185.

APH: Hearing edge positive saying VR Ultras 2x backplane desntiy improving & Ai Connectivity opportunities continue to broaden

HPE: BofA sees Networking Investor Day as catalyst, with Helios + Juniper supporting 15–20% 5-year growth

BofA expects HPE’s Sept. 30 Networking Investor Day to update the TAM, Juniper integration and AMD Helios opportunity, with networking revenue capable of a 15–20% CAGR through 2030. Helios could scale from a few hundred million of switch revenue to several billion if HPE supplies full racks, while Juniper adds routing/DC fabric share opportunities and Aruba remains the campus/branch foundation. BofA maintains Buy/$88.

FLEX: Freedom remains bullish into Nov. Analyst Day, sees Axiom margin ramp as key upside driver

Freedom says the upcoming Nov. 10 Analyst Day should provide more clarity on the FLEX/Axiom separation, but the bigger focus is Axiom’s margin trajectory as AI data-center power/cloud growth scales. Management has guided Axiom revenue growth to 65%+ in FY27 and ~80% in FY28, while Freedom sees potential upside in both Axiom and the legacy EMS business post-spin. Reiterates Buy/$150.

AAPL: MS says iPhone 18 lead times remain healthy globally, with China Pro demand improving

MS says iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max lead times are broadly flat y/y globally despite ~18% higher premium builds, suggesting healthy early demand with no supply-chain order cuts. China is the notable positive, with iPhone 18 Pro lead times now 26 days, ~4.5 days longer y/y and improving sequentially, although MS cautions lead times alone have limited predictive value for the cycle. Reiterates OW/$360.

VRT: Bernstein hyperscaler checks say product-quality concerns are overblown; AI infra demand remains strong

Bernstein says five hyperscaler checks found customers broadly satisfied with Vertiv product/service quality, with isolated issues but no evidence of structural problems and continued willingness to use VRT as a key supplier. Delivery delays were viewed as industry supply-chain/capacity constraints rather than company-specific, while customers remained confident in long-term AI infrastructure demand despite recent chatter around project pauses. Reiterates Outperform/$368.

NTES: MS names Top Pick ahead of Ananta launch, sees global hit potential driving re-rating

MS says January’s global launch of Ananta could be a major catalyst, with the GTA-like urban open-world title offering meaningful international upside while NetEase’s core games business remains relatively defensive against weak China consumption. MS sees the combination supporting a re-rating; reiterates OW/$163 and names NTES its Top Pick.

NTNX: Needham raises PT to $90, sees VMware displacement + AI infrastructure management expanding growth runway

Needham says Nutanix is increasingly becoming a full-stack hybrid operating/governance layer spanning external storage, Kubernetes and public cloud, making VMware displacement its largest growth driver as customers react to Broadcom price increases. It also sees Nutanix Agentic AI extending the control plane into managing inference infrastructure and improving portability across GPU/cloud environments. Transfers coverage at Buy and raises PT to $90 from $85.

TSLA: JPM cuts 3Q deliveries/EPS on China + U.S. weakness and margin pressure; lowers PT to $415

JPM cuts 3Q deliveries to 482K from 516K and EPS to $0.36 from $0.49, citing weaker China/U.S. demand plus lower regulatory credits and higher commodity/logistics costs. China wholesale remains strong on exports, but domestic retail is down ~21% y/y, while U.S. Jul-Aug sales are down ~29% y/y; FY26/27 EPS falls to $1.43/$1.45 from $1.60/$1.70. JPM remains Neutral and cuts PT to $415 from $445.

PANW: BTIG raises PT to $425 after management discussion, sees upside to FY27 growth from Chronosphere + Prisma AIRS

BTIG says after speaking with PANW SVP IR & Strategic Finance Hamza Fodderwala, it sees FY27 pro forma revenue growth of 17%+ vs. Street at 14.6% and NGS ARR growth of 26%+ vs. 24.5%. Chronosphere has already scaled past $500M ARR and could reach $800M+ in FY27, while Prisma AIRS could grow from ~$120M ARR in FQ4’26 to >$400M by year-end, adding incremental growth beyond the core firewall business. Reiterates Buy and raises PT to $425 from $404.

ADSK: Piper assumes coverage at OW/$300, sees workflow/data moat limiting AI-native disruption

Piper says Autodesk remains one of the strongest design/engineering software franchises, protected by embedded workflows, proprietary design data and high switching costs across AEC/manufacturing. While Astra and other AI-native tools could pressure interfaces and seat counts over time, Piper sees ADSK’s domain expertise and integration into complex collaborative workflows as meaningful barriers to disruption. Assumes OW, lowers PT to $300 from $338.

IONQ: BofA initiates Buy/$60, sees semiconductor-enabled scaling + broad quantum exposure

BofA says IonQ is the largest public pure-play quantum company by revenue and likes its semiconductor-based path to scaling qubit counts. The firm also highlights broad customer engagement and diversification across quantum computing, networking, security, sensing, space and foundry services, with acquisitions helping accelerate the roadmap. Initiates Buy with a $60 PT.

NEWS

AI: Enterprise usage shifts toward cheaper open-weight systems – FT

FT reports open-weight models handled 56% of tokens on Vercel’s AI Gateway in August, up from 7% in December. AT&T now uses open models for about 40% of AI workloads and aims for 70% within a year. Tinder has begun routing some queries to open models after its annualized AI spending rose from $1M in January to $10M in July. Executives cite cost, customization and control over proprietary data as reasons for the shift.

Foundries / DB HiTek / UMC: Price increases spread as mature-node capacity tightens – The Elec / Commercial Times

The Elec reports DB HiTek raised foundry prices in March and September, with increases of 5–30%; Chinese customers faced 20–30% hikes. Revenue benefits are expected in Q4 or early 2027, while water constraints limit expansion. Commercial Times reports selective increases at UMC, Vanguard and PSMC could broaden in 2027 as AI demand lifts orders for power-management and other mature-node chips. It cites TrendForce forecasting 90% average second-half utilization for leading foundries’ 8-inch capacity.

NVDA / DELL / SMCI / Wistron: Vera Rubin deliveries build toward Q4 ramp – Commercial Times

Commercial Times reports Supermicro delivered its first Vera Rubin NVL72 rack to SpaceX AI, while Dell began deliveries to CoreWeave in June. Further Q4 shipments from both OEMs are supporting Wistron’s AI-server orders, with visibility into next year. The report says GB300 and B300 orders also continue to arrive, and Wistron plans to extend Vera Rubin production to its Texas operation, which already supplies Blackwell-based servers.

NVDA: Launches hardware-backed controls for autonomous AI agents – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports Nvidia introduced its Open Agent Safety Platform, combining two open-source security tools with its hardware. OpenShell runs on Vera CPUs to enforce access rules in real time, while the new Sentry software runs on BlueField processors to monitor agents and isolate suspicious activity within milliseconds. Nvidia says the system could have prevented the Hugging Face breach and would allow advanced models to be tested safely.

AAPL: Faces $5.7B patent verdict over iPhone and Watch haptics – Reuters

Reuters reports a US jury awarded Taction more than $5.7B after finding Apple’s Taptic Engine infringed two patents covering haptic feedback in iPhones and Apple Watches. Reuters calls it the largest US patent verdict to date. Apple disputes the finding and says it will appeal.

NU / Monzo: Nubank explores £8–10B acquisition – FT

FT reports Nubank is in early talks to acquire Monzo in a cash-and-stock deal valuing the UK digital bank at £8–10B, versus its £4.5B valuation in 2024. Monzo is also considering selling up to 15% to private equity or raising venture funding. FT says Monzo has 16M customers and generated £1.7B of revenue and £87.3M of pretax profit in the year to March

NXPI / Vanguard: Singapore fab capacity sells out; second plant under review – DigiTimes / Nikkei Asia

DigiTimes reports NXP’s Singapore fab with Vanguard is its largest investment since Freescale, with volume production due in Q1 2027 and capacity targeted at 44,000 wafers per month in 2029. Nikkei Asia says the $6.7B plant’s capacity is already sold out and the partners are evaluating a second fab. The facility will produce power-management and analog chips, as well as interposers for TSMC’s advanced packaging.

TikTok: Alabama settlement replaces first state teen-harm trial – Reuters

Reuters reports TikTok and ByteDance reached their first state settlement over claims of addictive design and misleading safety assurances, ahead of the Alabama trial scheduled for September 28. Alabama will receive at least $100M within 45 days, potentially rising to $300M if specified conditions are met.

China AI: Travel approval requirements expand to executives’ families – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports China is extending overseas-travel approval requirements to spouses and children of selected AI and chip executives whose work is considered important to state security. The measures broaden restrictions previously applied to leading private-sector AI personnel, including at Alibaba and DeepSeek. Agencies have begun notifying affected families, and Beijing plans to add more individuals over time.