← 返回

2026.09.29 | TB | Energy | Equinor: Brazil Upstream & Supply Chain

原标题：Equinor – Upstream Activity in Brazil & Supply Chain Management

#energy

Third Bridge · 2026-09-29

Analyst-led • 14 Sep 2026

Companies: EQNR NO, PETR4 BR, 6269 JP

Marcio Correa Moreira (MCM) Operations Coordinator at 4Subsea

Olly Anibaba (OA) — Third Bridge Sector Analyst

Agenda

Key Insights

Introduction

OA [00:00:03]: Welcome to Third Bridge's Interview entitled Equinor – Upstream Activity in Brazil & Supply Chain Management. I am Olly Anibaba, and I'll be moderating today's Interview with Marcio Correa Moreira, former Manager, Supply Chain at Equinor.

Marcio, before we start today's Interview, please state I agree or I disagree to the following statement: You understand the definition of material non-public information and agree not to disclose any such information, or any other information which is confidential, during this Interview.

MCM [00:00:35]: I agree.

OA [00:00:36]: Could you start off with a brief introduction of your background and experience as it relates to our call today.

MCM [00:00:44]: Thanks. I'm Marcio Correa Moreira. I've been working for 25 years in supply chain, various positions, specifically to oil and gas. I joined 15 years ago, working for a subsea OEM, TechnipFMC. After that, seven years ago, I joined Equinor as Operations Supply Chain Manager, and I stayed there until November last year. All my roles were covering supply chain management, procurement, contract management.

Questions

00:01:26] The Bacalhau field came onstream in October 2025 with estimated recoverable reserves of more than one billion barrels of oil equivalent. How important is the Bacalhau project to the long-term growth prospects of Equinor's international upstream portfolio?

MCM [00:01:48]: The Bacalhau is going to be the largest production field outside Norway for Equinor. In terms of international strategy, it's the main field for growing for Equinor over the upcoming years. That is a transformative option for Equinor as North Sea matures and South America growth pattern is such. Yes, one of the main strategies for growing, and it's the first pre-salt field Equinor operates and that comes with a lot of uncertainties to be managed, but also cutting-edge technologies that Equinor leverages internally from North Sea experiences and also investing in new technologies and new supply chains.

00:02:53] How might Equinor enhance its supply chain for the Bacalhau field development?

MCM [00:03:01]: Firstly, first time Equinor buys an FPSO in such volume with the capacity of 220,000 barrels per day. It comes with build and operate. It was acquired from Modec and they had to EPCI the FPSO, engineering, procurement, construction and installation and then operate for one year. That is a new experience for Equinor. Subsea is also very challenging in terms of infrastructure and standards to cope with the high temperature and high pressure that pre-salt field exposes and that challenge has been managed together with a complete new set of technologies from the subsea suppliers. All in all, the supply chain is completely different from the experiences. Although the names are the same, the scopes and the contracting methodologies has to be different from the experiences in North Sea.

00:04:27] What strategies can Equinor and its partners implement to safeguard the Bacalhau unit economics against cost inflation in Brazilian offshore operations, thereby ensuring the field delivers on its targets for international growth and cash generation?

MCM [00:04:44]: The main challenge is not only the inflation, it's also cost creeps. Strategies such as performance-driven compensation embedded in the contracts. Sharing a little bit of the risk with the supply chain optionalities in terms of different materials and spare parts utilisation that can help to mitigate the cost creeps. When it comes to cost inflation, there's not much room for work there. The strategy was always to keep a very lean supply chain and a very fair compensation together with the suppliers. In one side, being in the Brazil and you have the benefit for the currency exchange, Brazilian reais to US dollars when it comes to the barrel quotation helps to protect Bacalhau's economics.

00:05:58] What are the main challenges in developing the Bacalhau field in the pre-salt area?

MCM [00:06:09]: As I said, technology is the main challenge there to cope with such stringent fields and conditions that bring some uncertainty. You have to be managing technical risks all the time. High temperature and high pressure wellheads. You need to cope with the challenge, but not increasing too much on the work package, the weight of the equipment. Other challenges come due to management of fleet and drillship utilisation. This has been one key bottleneck for Bacalhau fields, which we managed somehow to cope by bringing two drillships to Brazil that one is no longer in the picture, but the other is working very well to date. Managing the utilisation of these drillships and making sure the support vessel fleet is also well established, well managed. Those are some of the challenges being so far from the coast poses some logistics risks.

00:07:54] How might Equinor leverage its operational expertise to produce oil with low emissions? What skills or lessons did the company learn from its North Sea operations?

MCM [00:08:06]: Equinor has a lot of experience in North Sea with using electrification of the fields and flareless operations. There's many, many lessons we learned there that are going to leverage the pre-salt fields in Brazil. A lot of carbon emission reduction come from the combined cycle power generation. We were the first ones to design the FPSO with such technology in Brazil together with our supplier. Moving forward, of course, the no flare operation and in the future, leveraging electrification in the field. Bacalhau has one of the lowest carbon emission footprint in the world.

00:09:32] What would be a realistic timeline for Equinor to establish the electrification infrastructure for offshore operations in Brazil? What key hurdles remain?

MCM [00:09:43]: There is no timeline to date as far as I know, due to infrastructure constraints. It would be proving viable if all the market and the industry works together. If it's only a movement by Equinor, in my opinion, it would be very challenging in terms of bringing the infrastructure to completely electrify FPSOs in Brazil. Yes, it would be a next generation of options to reduce carbon emissions.

OA [00:10:27]: You mentioned that the Bacalhau field is one of Equinor's lowest-emissions assets. How does that compare to the company's other assets in the Santos Basin?

MCM [00:10:37]: I don't have the complete understanding of other carbon emissions for pre-salt fields. Compared to this industry, Bacalhau is half of carbon footprint.

00:11:08] In terms of FPSO [floating production storage and offloading vessel] deployment, how would unit OPEX evolve as operations transition from Modec to Equinor?

MCM [00:11:17]: The main target is to make sure the FPSO is coping to the main challenges. Having Modec operating the FPSO after one year that can be extended for two years is key. We have a smooth transition to Equinor. The whole design of the operation is designed to make sure that OPEX does not spike due to the transfer to Equinor. It's actually the opposite. It should be reducing when it comes to the Equinor's operations and operating models. Probably what we see is a much more controlled OPEX when it transitioned to Equinor.

OA [00:12:23]: Do you think the contract should be extended for another year, allowing Modec to be an operator so that Equinor can gain more experience and skills before it becomes the sole operator?

MCM [00:12:34]: The extension is an option, but actually, I can't say how it's faring today to be extended or not.

00:13:03] How do you see the FPSO utilisation rates trending for the rest of 2026 and 2027? What does this mean for additional production output per day?

MCM [00:13:18]: The current production output, it's around 110,000 barrels per day. It's half of its nominal capacity. The trend is to uplift to this production for 2026. Probably 2027, it will be very close to the nominal capacity of around 200,000 barrels per day. That is the trend.

OA [00:14:07]: How do production levels differ between the key blocks, specifically BM-S-8 or the Bacalhau Norte?

MCM [00:14:13]: Bacalhau Norte, it's around 100,000 barrels per day as far as I know. BM-S-8, I don't have that estimated production level with me now. Meaning that Bacalhau Norte would increase 50% of current production output.

00:14:47] What do you think is a realistic timeline for Equinor to reach its full nameplate capacity of 220,000 barrels per day? What steady-state FPSO utilisation rate is factored into your estimate?

MCM [00:15:00]: The production is estimated to get to its plateau in five years. Within five years, it gets to 220,000 barrels per day. That was the base case scenario for Bacalhau.

OA [00:15:18]: Do you think that there's an ideal FPSO utilisation rate that Equinor should be aiming for in order to sustain that production level?

MCM [00:15:28]: It said that's something around 85% utilisation.

OA [00:15:43]: If they Equinor is able to maintain that utilisation rate around 85%, how might that compare to other FPSOs that are utilised in deepwater operations in South America?

MCM [00:15:54]: That's more or less the industry standard to be around 85%, yes.

00:16:02] How do the recoverable reserves and decline rates of the Bacalhau field compare with Equinor's peers' ultra-deepwater assets in Brazil's Santos Basin as well as broader South American deepwater plays, such as the Stabroek Block in Guyana?

MCM [00:16:30]: Bacalhau is a large field, and the decline rates about the plateau, the plateau will be around 5-7 years. Then it starts to decline considering the 20-year, it will start declining in the 12th year of production. It declines around 10-15% per year. More or less that was the base case for Bacalhau. Compared to other reserves, it seems very similar, although pre-salt is slightly different from other ultra-deepwater. The industry utilises more or less the same standards, whether being pre-salt or post-salt. There is not much difference. Guyana is a very, very large field. They produce almost 5x than Bacalhau. I would say the decline rate would be the same, but for such fields and such large deployment of FPSO, it can vary more than that as you have more units in production, you have uplift in cost to be considered. There's many, many other variables that are not present in Bacalhau. It's very difficult to compare Guyana to Bacalhau. When you see other single unit fields like Bacalhau in Santos Basin, they are pretty much similar.

OA [00:18:20]: Would you say that there isn't much of a difference in the decline rates, whether it's pre-salt or other deepwater areas?

MCM [00:18:27]: It's not because it's pre-salt, but more if it's a single production unit or if it's various production units like Guyana. That's the main driver for my comparison.

OA [00:18:43]: Are you referring to subsea tiebacks by multiple production units?

MCM [00:18:49]: Mostly subsea tiebacks for the type of Bacalhau, yes.

00:18:54] From a cash breakeven standpoint, how does the competitiveness of the Bacalhau field compare with other ultra-deepwater developments across South America?

MCM [00:19:05]: Bacalhau is very productive and the breakeven is fairly low. It's a very competitive option for a field compared to other pre-salt. I would say, compared to Brazilian pre-salt, it's very competitive. Bacalhau is one of its kind in terms of production outputs and costs.

OA [00:19:38]: Would you quantify the cash breakeven points for the Bacalhau field? What are the potential cost inflation pressures that could increase the cash breakeven?

MCM [00:19:51]: It's around USD 30-40 per barrel breakeven. The other question was… Sorry…

OA [00:20:05]: What are the potential cost inflation spikes that could increase the cash breakeven?

MCM [00:20:12]: The main cost drivers for increase would be vessels utilisation, the drillship daily rate and labour. These just are the main cost drivers.

00:20:29] How would you assess the availability of skilled labour for the Bacalhau operations? Do you see engineer shortage risk moving forwards?

MCM [00:20:42]: There's always a potential for shortage, although Equinor's strategy offsets that risk pretty much due to other fields that are under development, internal skilled personnel utilisation. We don't have 100% dedication for all the fields. Some of the key positions we can leverage with other fields, and it somehow mitigates a little bit of that risk. Considering the growth of Equinor, it decided to keep as much as the specialised skilled professionals as possible even during the downturn. Now, we have the team in place to Bacalhau and other upcoming fields for the time being. That's how we managed. Yes, there is somehow a shortage in the Brazilian market for skilled personnel.

OA [00:21:51]: Is the local team predominantly domestic, ie, from Brazil? Would Equinor essentially transfer skilled engineers from other operations globally?

MCM [00:22:02]: Exactly. That's how it goes. We can leverage and transfer resources among different projects internally in Brazil, not needing to bring from other areas, other regions.

OA [00:22:16]: What would you say about Equinor's ability to poach staff from other operators in Brazil? Is that also common in the industry?

MCM [00:22:25]: Yes. Equinor is known to be a very competitive, very aggressive in terms of attracting resources and people. Yes, I would say we are fairly smaller player compared to Petrobras, for example. We can benefit a lot from being very aggressive in our policies and attracting talent.

OA [00:22:58]: How is Equinor able to attract its talent? Is it driven purely by wage increases? What are the additional factors at play?

MCM [00:23:09]: Mainly the benefit packages, bonuses. Then the third would be salary competitiveness because of the way it is structured, the whole package is very aggressive in compensation is not only wages, but everything of those three elements put together. All in all, we see this being very sustained.

00:23:39] How would you evaluate Equinor's strategy to drive substantial expansion in upstream revenue between 2026 and 2028 through production at the Bacalhau field?

MCM [00:23:57]: Bacalhau is going to be almost the main revenue generator for Bacalhau [sic] until 2028, where there is a new field coming on stream, Raia project. Bacalhau, which is there in Brazil, is going to be 80% of the production output. Everything else will be coming from non-operated licences we have in partnership with Petrobras.

OA [00:24:33]: Do you think Equinor will look to increase its stake in the licences with Petrobras, or would the company look to reduce it moving forwards?

MCM [00:24:42]: It's going to keep it fairly stable for the time being. If we think about 2028, there is no new prospect coming to production. Only after 2028, this new field together with Petrobras, Raia is Petrobras' partnership, will be coming on stream. Until there, only it's going to be Roncador as a non-operated asset and Bacalhau. The increase in revenue we will see is due to Bacalhau reaching its nominal capacity.

00:25:25] What are Equinor's main responsibilities as a non-operator in the licences with Petrobras? How much pressure can the company put on Petrobras in terms of infill drilling campaigns or cost measures?

MCM [00:25:41]: We collaborate very closely. Equinor is mainly there to support the technical recovery strategy. Everything else in that partnership is managed by Petrobras. For instance, they have to consult with us as a partner for investments and for big drilling plans, but they manage it along themselves. They come, we approve, but we don't execute. They are responsible for that.

00:26:22] You mentioned earlier that you expect the Bacalhau field to be the main revenue driver in Brazil. What do you consider to be a realistic annual cash flow target for this asset?

MCM [00:26:45]: I don't have this just on top of my mind, but coming to '26-'28, if we take that timeframe, we think that we're going to probably reach around 180,000-200,000 barrels per day, you can fare more or less with the price being close to USD 100 on how the revenue is going to look like.

00:27:16] What key decision criteria, timelines and capital allocation strategies would govern future infill drilling campaigns and potential phase 2 development for the Bacalhau field?

MCM [00:27:29]: Phase 2 for Bacalhau is still under the concept and design phase. We could have a trend on the table to bring either another production asset such as FPSO or tie-in strategy to the phase 1 FPSO. Both are on the table as far as I know, there's nothing decided, but the allocation would be to see how could technologically and safely increase the Bacalhau current FPSO production rate. This is a challenge. As far as I know, it's still on the table. The timeline for the decision is '27 Q1, if I'm not mistaken.

OA [00:28:35]: Given phase 2 is still in its conceptual phase, what strategy would be the best? Would it be to deploy another FPSO unit or to have some tieback to phase 1 development?

MCM [00:28:48]: That's my opinion and my opinion only that a tie-in strategy would be much economical than bringing a new FPSO. Based on what I saw in terms of production capacity and potential capacity during the prospect, I would say the most economic and quickly for coming to the stream would be to tie.

OA [00:29:19]: How quicker would the tieback to phase 1 development be compared to deploying a new FPSO? What's the time difference potentially there to come on stream?

MCM [00:29:31]: There are some variables there for, as I said, increasing the nominal capacity for the current FPSO, debottlenecking infrastructure. All in all, it's around half of the time from bringing a completely new FPSO.

00:29:50] Could you share your thoughts on the critical components and equipment needed for well control and subsea infrastructure?

MCM [00:30:10]: Yes. The subsea is, I would say, the infrastructure and bringing new equipment is fairly mature in Brazil. It's something that help all the operators to meet stringent local content requirements. All in all, the level of capacity is under control. I don't see lack of capacity for the time being and cost pressures in terms of bringing new orders to the supply chain. The material cost input to build to manufacture such equipment are spiking as we speak due to metal products, special alloys and speciality technology that goes together with the subsea equipment.

00:31:29] What annual cost inflation rate do you expect Equinor to encounter for Brazilian deepwater rig day rates, subsea equipment and regional offshore logistics?

MCM [00:31:42]: It's tricky bringing this side in supply chain, but I would say at very least, something around 8-12% could be expected annually.

OA [00:32:00]: What operational levers or supply-side cost mitigation strategies can Equinor leverage to mitigate these risks?

MCM [00:32:10]: One main strategy would be to bring in productive indicators, compensation based on performance. That means we share a little bit of the cost benefits and production benefits together with the suppliers in a way we can also mitigate risks of inflation, renegotiation of some of the key contractors and also leveraging together with upcoming big projects such as Raia. If you bring together and both negotiate some of these contracts, we may be able to mitigate the cost increase.

00:33:05] Which types of components and equipment could Equinor renegotiate contracts with suppliers for? How favourable could the pricing conditions be?

MCM [00:33:16]: For instance, subsea spare parts and aftermarket services, aftermarket being everything after first oil. When you deploy the equipment and start producing, everything after that point would be what we call aftermarket and vessels and logistics costs are very high. This would be something to be addressed and you can always leverage with other operations you have.

OA [00:33:54]: How could you leverage other operations to reduce the logistic costs?

MCM [00:34:02]: For instance, managing the fleet utilisation, so you can share fleet between assets that will offset [sic] the risk of one asset taking non-productive hours in such a high rates.

OA [00:34:21]: Could asset standardisation be another way of reducing costs?

MCM [00:34:27]: Of course, that would be depending on where it can be applicable. For instance, there are other costs that could be not viable to share resources. For instance, a drillship, mobilisation from one asset to another would be too expensive. In some cases, it's not viable. When it comes to standardising supporting vessels, anchor handlers, standardising power generation equipment such as turbines, turbine spare parts, compressors, these can all reduce costs.

00:35:17] For combined-cycle turbine power, what level of efficiency would you expect in energy consumption?

MCM [00:35:26]: I would say this is 90%, but I'm not technical enough, but this is very high production efficiency. There is always duplicity.

OA [00:35:38]: Could you elaborate on what you mean by duplicity?

MCM [00:35:43]: You have always a backup system. You have two turbines. One is operating, the other one is standby. When one is in shutdown, the other comes in. In terms of generating power, you work very close to 100%.

OA [00:36:05]: Would that also entail having a battery storage system unit in order to control energy supply?

MCM [00:36:15]: Yes.

00:36:17] What effect will the cost actions have on unit OPEX across Equinor's assets? How would they help safeguard the company's international free cash flow generation?

MCM [00:36:34]: I'm thinking on this question because, in one way, you will always keep your across-asset costs very under control. You can leverage resources, vessels, helicopters and everything. You can even leverage people. When you're not in a high drilling campaign in one asset, you can leverage to another. Just, all in all, if you manage to keep your costs under control and lowest rates than the inflation, considering the oil output, you protect your cash flow very well. That would be the way we anticipate the strategy to be at least.

00:37:46] What does the long-term future hold for Equinor in Brazil? Do you expect the company to explore more potential reserves or look for partnerships in a non-operator role?

MCM [00:38:12]: I would say, wherever it's possible, Equinor will operate the assets, but always with partnerships. Non-operated assets will be somehow in a lower degree. That's how it goes. For instance, there is a prospect field that Equinor bid last year. It was started as without partnerships only Equinor and now they brought in a new partner. That would be, to some extent, Equinor wants to operate more, most of the fields, but always with partnerships. Non-operated licence will be kept for strategic reasons.

00:39:08] Would Equinor look to explore opportunities in Guyana to expand in South America? When might you expect definitive results from the exploration licences in Argentina?

MCM [00:39:24]: Likely. Argentina has been something that Equinor explored for many years. We still didn't find wells with potential hydrocarbon. Canada is another aspect. There is a project that's under development for quite some years and that's Bay du Nord. Now it's in the greenfield phase. It's coming on stream. Guyana, I would say everybody is looking to that. I don't know. I'm not aware of any clear prospects in that area.

00:40:10] What can Equinor do to localise its supply chain and make sure key equipment and components can be procured in an adequate timeframe?

MCM [00:40:22]: Yes. As I said, we're mostly in the subsea and well control, this is pretty clear for all the operators. FPSO is more challenging, but we've been very successful and very creative on how to achieve local content and mitigate risks in a way our way to cope with the local content. I see localisation more and more is going to be taking place wherever the supply chain is also bringing viable solutions.

OA [00:41:10]: Are tariffs and geopolitical tensions also driving that localisation?

MCM [00:41:15]: Absolutely. Tariff is one of the key. As I said, the tariff is well linked to local content requirement. When you don't achieve the local content requirement, you can expect the penalties to be too high. Whenever possible, we always incentivise the suppliers to come and build infrastructure locally so we locally can… It's also payback during the life cycle of the equipment because it's too high of a penalty.

00:41:56] How do local content requirements in Brazil differ from other major exploration areas globally, whether that be the US Gulf Coast, Guyana or the North Sea?

MCM [00:42:50]: I would say the Americas, not only South America, but all the Americas, the local content is fairly higher than the North Sea as a whole. There are, of course, pressures there. In Americas, it's higher. The opposite, the reserves or whatever we can become a project in North Sea is considerably lower than Americas. This is a risk that can be managed, but you will have to manage it if you want to increase your outputs and develop new fields. Aside of Americas, you have Africa. Africa, I would say, is very comparable to what we see in terms of local content in Brazil and US.

00:43:47] Is there anything else you'd like to discuss about Equinor or its key assets in Brazil?

MCM [00:43:55]: Just a comment. Mentioning about other fields in Brazil, Peregrino was sold to another operator last year. Now, Roncador is one of the other assets under operation. That's not operated by Equinor. Keep in mind that in 2028, the production portfolio for Equinor is going to change significantly when you see Raia project coming on stream, and Raia, it's 50-60% of the output is going to be gas instead of oil. A lot of changes coming up for Equinor in the upcoming years. Yes, I just wanted to mention that.

OA [00:44:51]: Do you think that gas production will be predominantly for the domestic market or would it be for export sales?

MCM [00:44:58]: For the domestic.

OA [00:45:00]: That just about brings us to the end of today's Interview. Once again, thank you for taking the time out to speak with me today, and I hope you enjoy the rest of your day.

MCM [00:45:11]: Thanks a lot. Let's be in touch.

Transcription ends at 00:45:16 of the recorded material