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2026.09.29 | TB | SemiCap | Lithography 3Q26 Update & China Supply Chain

原标题：Semiconductor Equipment Series – Lithography Industry Q3 2026 Update & Overseas Expansion Opportunities for Chinese Supply Chain (Conducted in Mandarin)

#semicap #china

Third Bridge · 2026-09-29

Analyst-led • 23 Sep 2026

Companies: ASML NL, 002549 CN, 7751 JP, 981 HK, INTC US, A005930 KR, 2330 TW, 7731 JP, 300293 CN, 002371 CN, 603005 CN, A000660 KR, 300456 CN, 002222 CN, 688409 CN

Expert Independent Consultant

Melody Liang (ML) — Third Bridge Sector Analyst

Agenda

Key Insights

Introduction

ML: Hello and welcome to Third Bridge’s Interview entitled Semiconductor Equipment Series – Lithography Industry Q3 2026 Update & Overseas Expansion Opportunities for Chinese Supply Chain (Conducted in Mandarin). My name is Melody Liang, Third Bridge’s Sector Analyst, and I will be facilitating today’s Interview. We are ve[Expert]ased to have [Expert], who is a former Deputy Director, Sales at Beijing U-precision Tech Co Ltd, wit[Expert]day.

Expert], before we start today’s Interview, please state if you agree or disagree to the following statement: You understand the definition of material non-public information and agree not to disclose any such information, or any other information which is confidential, during this Interview.

Expert [00:00:31]: I agree.

ML [00:00:34]: First of all, before we start the Interview, I would like to ask you to briefly introduce yourself and your professional experience related to today’s topic.

Expert [00:00:43]: I previously worked on Project 02 focusing on domestic lithography machines for about two to three years. My work there mainly involved domestic lithography machines and high-precision intelligent equipment such as laser annealing and wafer bonding. This bonding includes temporary bonding, permanent bonding and hybrid bonding. Later I joined a zero-to-one startup that primarily focused on metrology, advanced packaging and dicing equipment. During this process, I also handled trading for products such as CD-SEM, DFI and precision parts, as well as after-sales service for clients.

Questions

00:01:59] What changing trends in the lithography machine industry should investors focus on in the past two to three months? Are there any related companies that are particularly worth paying attention to? What are the reasons?

Expert [00:02:19]: At present, ASML is definitely worth noting because it is a leading enterprise. Firstly, the prosperity of AI and related memory has probably pushed ASML's orders well into 2028, which is a good situation. At the same time, ASML's high-NA EUV has moved from Intel's validation stage to the mass production stage. Meanwhile, regarding domestic lithography machines, there was good news for immersion DUVs at the client end at the end of July. If the validation is successful in the future, it might have a certain suppressive effect on ASML at certain process nodes.

ASML's Q2 this year beat expectations, and it raised its full-year revenue figures. The core driver is AI, memory, NAND and logic chips. Currently, ASML plans to adjust its low-NA EUV production capacity to about 60-70 units in 2026, and the immersion type to around 130 units. It is expected to have a growth rate of about 30% YoY in 2027 and 2028. There is probably nothing else. It is mainly these two aspects. The shipment of domestic immersion lithography machines and ASML's high expected growth.

00:05:08] Is the domestic immersion DUV [deep ultraviolet] currently in a client-side validation stage? How long does this validation period generally take? When can we expect some mass-produced orders?

Expert [00:05:32]: It is estimated to be one year if it is fast, or around one to 1.5 years.

ML [00:05:42]: Which clients are mainly conducting the validation?

Expert [00:05:52]: Both Hua Hong and CXMT.

ML [00:06:00]: What process nodes does the corresponding immersion DUV mainly handle?

Expert [00:06:07]: It mainly focuses on process nodes around 28nm.

ML [00:06:15]: Wasn't it said earlier that the domestic 90nm process lithography machine was also under validation?

Expert [00:06:28]: That 90nm was in the past. There was news about 90nm previously, but later there was no news from 90nm down to more advanced nodes. Later, it was said that the Chinese mainland would develop immersion lithography machines around 28nm, also led by the H series. Currently, product applications on the Chinese mainland are mainly focused on nodes such as 28nm and 40nm. Apart from high-end and newly released AI-related industries, 40nm and 28nm can basically cover all aspects. Therefore, if the validation is passed at the 28nm node, this market should be quite large. It can cover basically everything except for AI-related NAND, logic and HBM.

00:12:20] What are the current unit prices of ASML's EUV [extreme ultraviolet] and immersion DUV, respectively? If calculated based on 60-70 ASML EUV units and 130 immersion DUV units, what scale of revenue can these equipment shipments generate for this year?

Expert [00:12:47]: Currently, for low-NA, it should be around EUR 170m-200m. If it is high-NA, it might reach EUR 300m-400m. For DUV at present, if it is immersion, it should be over RMB 100m, around RMB 150m.

ML [00:13:50]: After the domestic DUV passes validation in the future, what will be the approximate price difference compared to ASML's price?

Expert [00:14:02]: Generally speaking, it should be at a 30-40% discount to its price.

00:14:17] If we break down the immersion DUV by supply chain value, including subsystems such as light source, lens and wafer stage, which components or subsystems have a relatively high value proportion?

Expert [00:14:55]: The highest should be its light source part, followed by its optical system and then the wafer stage. The rest are its immersion system and other structural parts.

00:15:23] Which Chinese companies in the supply chain do you think are relatively outstanding or have great potential for future development?

Expert [00:15:34]: Among the outstanding ones, from a business perspective at present, companies such as Fortune Precision should be negotiating the trade of some structural parts with ASML for certain models of machines. It is in the supply chain for structural parts of some supplied models, and its performance here is also good. Of course, a large part of it is also driven by domestic equipment from Naura, but it also has some cooperation with ASML in the DUV supply chain and has passed ASML's rigorous certifications such as cleanroom, vacuum coating and nanometer-level precision. In addition, listed companies such as China WLCSP and SMEI have their own subsidiaries abroad. SMEI's is Silex, a Swedish company, mainly provides MEMS micromirrors for middle-end fine-tuning. In addition, listed companies such as China WLCSP and SMEI each have their own subsidiaries abroad. SMEI mainly relies on Silex in Sweden, which mainly provides MEMS micromirrors to help fine-tune the mid-stage. China WLCSP has also acquired a subsidiary in the Netherlands, which may provide it with some precision optical elements and optical components supplied to the DUV's optical path. SMEI acquired Silex in Sweden, but it seems highly likely that the Swedes will push us out because SMEI itself does a lot of things, and it is also sensitive due to political reasons. I heard that the Swedes are still very tough.

ML [00:18:56]: Does it face risks?

Expert [00:18:58]: That’s correct. There is SMEI in Beijing Yizhuang, but it is a completely different thing, and the components used are completely different. The reality is that Sweden did not give us the technology. China WLCSP also acquired the Dutch company Anteryon. After acquiring this company, it will provide some precision optical elements directly to ASML's DUV optical path, so its revenue growth this year has also been quite rapid.

00:20:30] If based on a relatively optimistic expectation of the future volume expansion of domestic immersion DUVs, which core companies in the domestic supply chain are worth focusing on?

Expert [00:21:06]: Firstly, regarding lasers, which are the largest consumables for lithography machines, companies producing nonlinear optical crystals such as Castech will be used in the light source. Their subsequent business may rise along with the global increment of DUVs. In 2025, its overseas business is expected to grow by about 18% YoY, nearly 20% YoY. This year, with the capacity expansion of DUVs and the subsequent performance of import substitution, its market share may gradually increase. The light source is the largest consumable. In addition, apart from such optical crystals, the light source also uses special gases such as fluorine, krypton and neon.

For these special gases, domestic companies such as Kaimeite produce such special gases for lithography. Including Huate Gas mentioned earlier, they all produce such special gases. As long as lithography machines and lasers are in use, consumables will be consumed. That is about it for purely domestic ones. Then there is the immersion system, such as Cheer. If the domestic H-series immersion lithography machine passes validation, it may also see good growth in the future. This is on the lithography machine side.

As for the major suppliers mentioned earlier for the three major parts - the wafer stage, light source and optical system - they are also the suppliers for domestic immersion lithography machines, so I will not elaborate on them. They will certainly see growth as well. Suppliers for the lithography machine's wafer stage and light source, namely U-Precision, RSLaser and Gopptix, which are the suppliers for the three major systems of the lithography machine, will continue to maintain high growth expectations. With the validation and even subsequent mass production of domestic lithography machines, they should also have a very good outlook because these are core components. What I just mentioned are some slightly niche ones that people might not know well.

ML [00:24:56]: How about SBS, which makes cleaning equipment?

Expert [00:25:07]: For cleaning, it mainly focuses on cleaning some internal optical components. In fact, as a service provider, it acquired UCM in Switzerland. SBS' Swiss company is a supplier for ASML's internal optical component cleaning.

00:26:41] You just mentioned many links in the supply chain. Which links have the highest value and the deepest barriers?

Expert [00:27:25]: Undoubtedly, it should be the optical and optical path systems. This is quite difficult, and the technical moat is relatively high. These two are the highest. Next would probably be its wafer stage.

ML [00:27:50]: The dual wafer stage from U-Precision?

Expert [00:27:53]: Yes, the dual wafer stage and the immersion system are the next in line.

ML [00:28:00]: What about things such as structural parts, including the precision structural parts from Fortune Precision, optical crystals and cleaning equipment?

Expert [00:28:08]: These are not in particularly large volumes, and their profits will be much smaller than those just mentioned.

ML [00:28:24]: Several companies in the light source system and optical system, such as RSLaser, Gopptix and CNEPO, have not gone public yet, right?

Expert [00:28:44]: Yes.

00:28:54] You just mentioned ASML's EUV is 60-70 units and immersion DUV is 130 units. Based on our previous exchanges, I remember its low-NA [numerical aperture] EUV shipments were about 40-44 units. This year it is 60-70 units. Roughly how many of these are low-NA and high-NA, respectively?

Expert [00:29:32]: As mentioned earlier, there are basically no high-NA units. It is only at Intel for what amounts to initial validation.

ML [00:29:47]: Didn't you say the validation was passed and it is now ready for mass production?

Expert [00:29:52]: Yes, the mass production validation has passed, but that is a matter for next year. The proportion of high-NA in 2026 should not be high, as it will basically be mostly low-NA.

ML [00:30:08]: Approximately what volume will ASML's low-NA and high-NA reach in 2027? You mentioned previously that the cumulative volume for 2026-28 might exceed 400 units.

Expert [00:30:47]: Adjusting it based on the current situation, the foreseeable number is around 250-300 units.

00:32:27] Why was the demand expectation of 400 units for ASML's low-NA and high-NA in 2026-28 revised down to 250-300 units? What is the core reason?

Expert [00:32:40]: There are also some supply chain factors, because some products may be delivered later. There are also some supply chain factors here, as some deliveries might be postponed. If we are more optimistic, the total global EUV volume by 2028 might be around 150 units, and the proportion of high-NA might increase, but it is hard to predict the exact number. Because the US is currently leading in AI, I feel there are still some uncertainties. Intel only stated that high-end process nodes cannot all be left in the hands of TSMC in Taiwan, but it is impossible to predict how much effort it will exert. There could be delayed deliveries. For example, if 40 units are needed this year, some might be pushed to next year. When 90 units are needed, some might also be pushed back, so there are some time delays. I think this depends on the overall delivery situation of the supply chain. 400 units should be an ideal figure when everyone works very fast, and cycles are very quick.

ML [00:33:43]: For ASML, which links or components in its supply chain are most likely to become a bottleneck due to delayed delivery?

Expert [00:34:03]: Deliveries are slower for parts such as the light source. For the US company it acquired, some production schedules might be delayed because many of its optical components are outsourced, meaning there might be delays for components of components.

00:34:53] In ASML's light source and optical component supply chain, who are the main suppliers? Are there opportunities for Chinese companies to penetrate in the future?

Expert [00:35:11]: It explicitly claims to have two main suppliers: Cymer from the US and Gigaphoton from Japan, which is now called Komatsu. However, since it acquired Cymer in the US, in reality, especially for high-end machines, it tacitly approves of or prioritises recommending this US company as the supplier. Because for clients, when they buy lithography machines, their requirements might not be very specific as long as the entire lithography machine meets their overall requirements, and they do not care which laser is used. Therefore, ASML will highly likely recommend Cymer from the US.

ML [00:36:25]: What is the approximate share of this company in ASML? And what is the approximate share of the Japanese one?

Expert [00:36:33]: Cymer has a larger share, but in fact, the Japanese one is also good. It is just that everyone is closer to the US.

ML [00:37:00]: Chinese manufacturers have absolutely no opportunities here, right?

Expert [00:37:09]: If it is on the high-end, we also have a little bit of an opportunity. If no major issues are involved during the validation process, I think there should be opportunities later. So we will probably have to look at the application situation at the clients' end later. If it gets stuck at the light source, some subsequent steps might be delayed.

ML [00:37:47]: Are these two parts the main bottlenecks causing ASML's slow capacity progress? Are there no bottlenecks elsewhere?

Expert [00:37:53]: There are bottlenecks elsewhere too, but it is mainly the light source.

00:38:42] If the R&D for 2nm and below process nodes lands in 2026, what is the expected shipment volume for ASML's high-NA EUV next year?

Expert [00:39:06]: As for next year, according to what ASML has currently disclosed, the high-NA volume in 2026 should be fewer than 10 units.

ML [00:39:27]: Did you say fewer than 10 units in 2026? Wasn't it said that there would be none in 2026?

Expert [00:39:35]: Yes, so it is fewer than 10 units.

ML [00:39:38]: This range is too large. Because if calculated, these 10 units also represent a market of several billions of EUR, which is very large.

Expert [00:39:48]: That’s right, so the total number is about 5-7.

ML [00:40:22]: What about 2027?

Expert [00:40:26]: For 2027, as I just mentioned, it is estimated to be around 30% growth.

ML [00:40:43]: Do both low-NA EUV and high-NA EUV have 30%?

Expert [00:40:49]: Yes, this still depends on the volumes of companies such as Intel in the US, Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC. TSMC is the major player, but it stated that it will not purchase ASML's high-NA prototype machines before 2029. It might have other supply methods, including whether it uses an advanced packaging architecture such as CoWoS-S or CoWoS-L to make the front-end lithography machine equivalent to the effect of such high-end lithography machines.

ML [00:41:57]: That means before 2029, TSMC's procurement demand is almost zero, and it mainly depends on Intel, Samsung and SK Hynix, right?

Expert [00:42:06]: That’s correct. Yes. The increment here might depend on how Intel and the US increase their stakes to restrict TSMC. Of course, this involves Taiwan Strait politics.

ML [00:42:58]: Does that mean high-NA EUV is mainly used in TSMC's 2nm and below process nodes?

Expert [00:43:21]: It may not be 2nm, but 5nm is also possible.

ML [00:43:26]: For 5nm, normally low-NA is sufficient. Why use high-NA?

Expert [00:43:33]: Some fabs might consider it from the perspective of yield rate, and there will also be crossovers. Basically, anything below 5nm will likely use this.

ML [00:43:48]: If TSMC does not purchase it, does that mean the high-end AI chips used in Rubin will continue to use low-NA EUV? Including the future Rubin Ultra, will low-NA EUV be sufficient and high-NA EUV no longer be needed?

Expert [00:44:11]: Yes, because TSMC's process is relatively strong. Through such process changes, including changes in back-end packaging, it can actually achieve process nodes around 2nm and 3nm, so it does not need that.

00:44:29] After all, the unit cost and maintenance cost of high-NA EUV are higher than those of low-NA. What is the urgency and necessity for Intel, Samsung and SK Hynix to choose high-NA EUV?

Expert [00:44:50]: It might be because they do not have a packaging process such as TSMC's. CoWoS was proposed by TSMC after all, and its various packaging processes are not outsourced. Normally speaking, on the Chinese mainland, everything is front-end production, and after production, it is handed over to the back-end for packaging. For example, SMIC giving it to JCET for packaging involves two different factories and is outsourced. But TSMC is different. It does everything itself. So I think there must be its own know-how involved, and its advanced packaging fab will help it achieve equivalent results for the overall project and reach higher process nodes. It might, for instance, optimise the overall process to achieve a low cost for high-cost tasks by improving machine utilisation rates, increasing the number of lithography layers and using photomasks that it designed itself.

00:46:15] You just mentioned that Fortune Precision is one of the very few domestic component suppliers capable of entering ASML's supply chain. It supplies tier-two components, not the core optical and motion subsystems. Meanwhile, its clients also include Naura, AMEC and Piotech. What do you think of its technological level, market reputation and market share?

Expert [00:46:48]: Currently, it only has a small number of orders for structural parts from ASML, and it has not yet reached a period of high or explosive growth. The cooperation is mainly on some precision machined parts because it produces items on cavities and gas pipelines, which are basically precision machined parts or, frankly speaking, mechanical parts.

ML [00:47:30]: How have Fortune Precision's growth and capacity expansion been since the beginning of this year?

Expert [00:47:40]: The overall capacity is good. Because along with Naura, which I hear has now received orders well into 2027 and 2028, it relies more on the growth of CVD, PVD and etch machines, so it has a certain level of growth.

00:48:11] What are the technological level, market reputation and market share of the company SBS?

Expert [00:48:20]: SBS' Swiss company is cleaning internal optical components for them, which I think should be quite good. As for the domestic side of it, it is unknown because this is likely mostly a European affair.

ML [00:49:05]: What is the proportion of Castech's lithography machine-related business, and how is its order growth?

Expert [00:49:16]: Castech's frequency conversion crystals are used in such excimer light sources, which is equivalent to a core component of a lithography machine. Its overseas business is expected to grow by about 20% in 2025. As DUV installations continuously increase in 2026, it is expected that its growth rate might exceed 20%.

ML [00:50:37]: Among companies such as U-Precision, RSLaser, Gopptix and Cheer, whose layout and progress do you think is faster and more leading?

Expert [00:50:55]: They are all about the same and can only manage applications at the immersion level for 28nm. If they were to go further down, I think it would be more difficult for those two, such as RSLaser and Gopptix, which make light sources and optics. However, I think the wafer stage is fine.

ML [00:51:40]: From a geopolitical perspective, will the US further restrict some of ASML's EUV deliveries to Taiwan and South Korea in the future? Is there such a potential risk of supply chain relocation?

Expert [00:52:16]: It should be said that deliveries to Taiwan and South Korea will not be restricted unless a massive emergency occurs, in which case it would definitely not work. Normally speaking, Taiwan and South Korea will not be subjected to controls.

00:52:45] Compared with ASML's immersion DUV, how do Nikon's and Canon's DUVs compare in terms of yield rate, operations and maintenance and spare parts, excluding price? In which application scenarios will clients prioritise choosing Nikon or Canon?

Expert [00:53:10]: For some speciality processes, such as power devices, including IGBTs, sensors and MEMS, they might not use ASML's machines, mainly considering the cost. In terms of yield rate, when there are many layers, ASML is stronger. For processes with relatively few layers, the yield rates of Nikon and Canon are still quite good, and their yield rates are similar. For maintenance costs, ASML's machines might be more complex to maintain, and the cost will be higher if the machine goes down. For Nikon and Canon, because their structures are relatively less complex than ASML's, the pressure of operations and maintenance will also be lower.

00:54:35] In terms of power devices, including sensors and MEMS [micro-electro-mechanical systems], what is the trend of import substitution for Nikon and Canon? What is the level of difficulty?

Expert [00:54:50]: For import substitution, it has to be looked at separately. From what I know, the MEMS process node is currently basically around 350nm, so SMEE can touch this area. For IGBTs, it is hard to say because the range is quite large, covering anything from 28nm to 90nm, and different nodes correspond to different lithography machines. If you mean 28nm, as mentioned earlier, we are in the validation stage. If you mean 90nm, it is quite awkward. We previously said that although we can do 90nm, no mass production line is using 90nm, and there was no news afterwards before jumping straight to 28nm. Therefore, it is very difficult to judge whether domestic lithography machines can be used in this range. At present, I think they cannot. It still depends on the validation situation at the clients' end at the end of July that we mentioned earlier. Basically, MEMS can undergo import substitution, but IGBTs generally cannot yet. Of course, there are also higher IGBTs, meaning those larger than 90nm, but their proportion is not large, mostly falling within the 28nm to 90nm range.

00:56:34] Will ASML's DUV export controls be further intensified in the future to restrict China's market from purchasing its new machines, spare parts and maintenance services?

Expert [00:56:46]: If it is an ordinary DUV, it is temporarily imperceptible and should be fine for now. However, as to whether it will be intensified later, because the heads of state of the two countries might meet soon, it is estimated that they will also discuss cooperation related to AI and semiconductors. The US hopes that we will have regular communication regarding AI with the US side, similar to high-level dialogues. It is said that there will be relaxation moves in the semiconductor sector, so we will have to see the outcome of the subsequent high-level talks. It is possible that for mature nodes, parts and such will remain as usual without the previous worry of intensified controls. As for whether high-end lithography machines such as 1980 and 2000 can be unblocked, that is probably a question mark.

ML [00:58:18]: Thanks again to [Expert] for their input today. This now concludes our meeting. Goodbye.