2026.09.30 | TB | Media | Neptune Retail Solutions Primer

Primer • 8 Sep 2026

Companies: IBTA US

Expert Former Senior Executive in Sales & Marketing

Aastha Shah (Analyst) — Third Bridge Sector Analyst

Agenda

• Over 30 years’ experience in the marketing and advertising technology space
• Over three years’ experience at Neptune Retail Solutions (left within the last two years)

Introduction

Analyst: Please could you just state I agree or I disagree to the following statement. You understand the definition of material non-public information and agree not to disclose any such information, or any other information which is confidential, during the Primer Interview today.

Expert: Yes, I agree.

Questions

Could you describe what Neptune Retail Solutions does? What products and services does the company provide?

Expert: Neptune Retail Solutions is a digital incentives and shopper marketing platform, marketing company to help primarily CPG brands and retailers drive sales and achieve marketing goals and objectives.

Analyst: What do CPG brands entail?

Expert: CPG brands, primarily consumer packaged goods, sometimes referred to as fast-moving consumer goods, are basically things that are purchased on store in shelf. So, everything from both food products, like packaged goods like cheese and macaroni and peanut butter and candy and those kinds of things to non-food products, including shampoo, soap, toothpaste, all those types of things can move into the dog food and pet food category as well. Then, in general, in terms of the other areas that Neptune gets into, alcoholic beverage is a big and fast-growing segment, as well as pharmaceutical.

What is the value proposition of the company's products or services? What problem is the company trying to solve, in your opinion?

Expert: In general, it really satisfies shopper marketing needs for CPG brands. It helps encourage and complete the sale at shelf. So, while larger marketing and promotional elements may happen on television or digital media or social media that build awareness and consideration, it's often the products that Neptune sells that helps close that sale either at shelf or incentivises purchase through digital incentives, so things that happen within the store or within the store environment.

What is the full range of industries and business sizes that could use the company's products or services? What is its TAM?

Expert: In terms of the small, medium and large, I would say medium and large, primarily. It's definitely open to smaller companies as well. However, the scale and size and cost of entry can be difficult for smaller start-up brands, new brands. In terms of the primary market, it's really the larger in terms of where they are really going after, it's the Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Kraft, PepsiCo, Coke. The major CPG brands are really their primary targets, but they can also certainly help mid-size emerging brands or growing brands to get a foothold in the retail environment.

Analyst: How would you quantify small-sized vs medium-sized vs large-sized businesses using any appropriate metric? You mentioned that Neptune primarily targets medium- and large-scaled companies.

Expert: Probably maybe product distribution. I would say, if they are nationally distributed, it would be large. You think about Skippy peanut butter is nationally distributed across all retailers. Medium would be regional. So, it might be a brand that is in a few hundred Walmarts or certain retailers like I'm Justin Albertsons or Justin Krogers, so some of those things where they have got regional or mid-sized distribution of their product. Hard to come up for me, from my side to quantify total revenue.

Analyst: Could you provide an educated guess on the revenue of the companies?

Expert: I would say the medium size would probably be in the USD 100m range in terms of revenue, whereas the larger would be up in the USD 1bn-plus in terms of revenue.

Analyst: Would you say small companies are USD 0-100m in revenue, medium-sized are USD 100m-1bn and large are anything above USD 1bn?

Expert: Maybe USD 1bn sounds a little high. I would say probably USD 100m-750m [for medium].

Analyst: Do you think large companies have USD 750m-plus in revenue?

Expert: Not really my expertise in terms of knowing.

Analyst: Could the company target any industries apart from CPG, which is one of its core customers?

Expert: Yes. I think in terms of target CPG, consumer payment vehicles is another one. That's like the Mastercards, Visa, Apple Pay. In fact, Apple Pay has been a customer and those types of things, so consumer payments channels, pharmaceuticals. So, think about actual, where you need a prescription medication. Alcoholic beverage is another very large, both pharma and alcohol beverage is definitely fast-growing categories for them. Then, another, I would say, tertiary or even beyond, fourth level would be wireless, like a T-Mobile and AT&T, not quite as valuable or as important, but in the target range.

Could you profile Neptune's typical target customer across industries and business sizes? What is the ICP [ideal customer profile] or sweet spot for the company, in your opinion?

Expert: In terms of who the companies are going after, again, I would say it's that large CPG brand with national distribution and large marketing budgets. That would be again, Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Krafts, Coke, Pepsi, those sorts of things. I'm just saying, I need the specifics in terms of who within those organisations, but in terms of the types of target, it's those large CPG brands.

Analyst: How much revenue does the company make from the industries or sectors you mentioned, in your opinion? What is the revenue split across CPG brands, consumer pay and vehicles, pharma, alcoholic beverages and the wireless mobile industries?

Expert: Broadly, I would say CPG is probably 60-plus-%, again, both food and non-food. Then, alcoholic beverage is probably the number two and that's probably in 11-20%. Then, I would say, again pharma is probably third, 21-30%, actually 11-20%. I'm not sure these are all exact [ranges], but somewhere in that 11-20%. Then, I would say consumer payment is the [remaining 0-10%], somewhere in there. In wireless, I wouldn't even put a percentage on it. It's just definitely a target.

Analyst: What is the revenue split in percentage ranges across small-, medium- and large-sized companies?

Expert: I would say the vast majority is large, so I would say 61-70% would be in the large category. Then, 31-40% in the medium size in terms of percentage.

Could you mention any customer names that are either on Neptune's website or have been shared in the public domain, apart from the ones you already mentioned?

Expert: I think some of those ones I just mentioned, Unilever, Pepsi, Coca-Cola.

What are the key regions that the company derives its revenue from? Could you provide the revenue split across geographies?

Expert: I would say North America, so I would say primarily the US. Again, probably 81-90% the US and the other would be a smaller percentage, [11-20%], in Canada.

Analyst: Could you highlight the top three performing geographies or states within the US for the company?

Expert: It's a little hard because, in terms of the target, it really is national.

Analyst: Could you highlight the top US geographies where the customer companies are headquartered?

Expert: I would think that the Ohio area from a P&G standpoint is important. Believe it or not, Bentonville, Arkansas, which is where Walmart is headquartered that is a big important market for us because Walmart is such an important part of the retail environment. There are lots of consumer brands, Coke, Pepsi, P&G, everyone has large offices in Bentonville to service Walmart. Neptune then, as a result, has relationships in Bentonville as well, but I would say, again, New York, East Coast, Mid-Atlantic is important, Unilever, those kinds of things, Pepsi.

What are the company's core revenue-generating segments? What is the revenue split across the products?

Expert: In terms of those products, in terms of in-store media and so on, looking back at some or trying to remember some pieces of it, digital incentives is actually growing and largest piece of their overall revenue. I would say that probably 51-60% is digital incentives. I would say in-store signage, in-store media would probably be in 21-30% and digital media and digital out-of-home would probably split 0-10% each.

Analyst: To confirm, are the segments – (1) digital incentives, which is 51-60% of the revenue, (2) in-store media, which is 21-30% of the revenue (3) digital media, which is 0-10%, and (4) digital out-of-home, which is 0-10%?

Expert: Yes.

What is the typical revenue model for each core segment? Is it transactional [one-time payment for a one-time product or service provided], recurring [fixed payments at fixed intervals, similar to a Netflix subscription model] and reoccurring [unpredictable, consumption-based payments at regular intervals, similar to an electricity bill model]?

Expert: I would say each of these are slightly different approaches. Digital incentives are transactional, but across all of these, there's also an element that I think is recurring, which they would say, okay, they have upfront commitments. They would say, "You are going to spend X hundred million dollars," or whatever the number is, "in a calendar year," or, in some cases, two years, but it's primarily a single year. You have to spend this total amount and for that commitment of spending USD 100m, you will get preferential pricing. You have to spend that amount of money to get that preferential pricing. Again, it's a little bit of both of those, so it's definitely transactional. It's campaign by campaign. This will run for X period, one month, two months, three months, and it's an individual thing. The pricing and the overall commitment is often based on a total annual sum that you can then put together and say, we might get to the end of the year and say, "Hey, you still have 41-50% of your budget to spend," and they will spend it all on holiday and that's okay. It's just how they spend it out.

Analyst: What is the revenue model for in-store media, given that you already discussed the model for digital incentives?

Expert: I would say all of those are in that realm.

Analyst: Are all the contracts structured the way you explained it for the digital incentive segment?

Expert: Pretty much. The digital incentives and in-store very much have that role. Digital out-of-home and digital media are slightly less. I would just put them as transactional.

Analyst: Does Neptune get paid on a per-campaign basis?

Expert: For the most part, yes. With the exception where there's an annual commitment that says, "Okay, we are going to spend X dollars, but on a campaign-by-campaign basis, it's X number of dollars".

Analyst: What percentage of times do you think it's going to be transactional vs recurring?

Expert: I think the larger ones, it's almost always an upfront commitment or recurring, but in general, each programme, I would say 91-100% are in that transactional campaign where you run a campaign on X dollars and it comes and goes.

Analyst: How long are the campaigns typically for?

Expert: Usually, 2-3 months.

Could you provide a use case for each core segment? What is a typical example of how customers use Neptune's products and services? Could you describe a customer journey based on what happens within each segment, starting with digital incentives?

Expert: Digital incentives are digital coupons. They are promotional incentives that are delivered to consumers. Usually, primarily through a retailer app, so a CVS app and what Neptune provides in that, we are the middle person between the brand, let's say, Crest Toothpaste and CVS and we process that USD 1 off coupon that then lives in the CVS app. We have got relationships with pretty much the vast majority of retailers, again processing that transaction of and setting up and delivering and monitoring that digital coupon that lives in a retailers' app.

Analyst: What types of digital incentives does Neptune offer? Does the company also provide cash back and rebates apart from coupons?

Expert: Yes. They own a site called Checkout 51, which is a cashback app, which is again a shopping platform, so cashback, digital incentives. They do still operate in the physical paper coupons that are called FSIs. That's very much declining by the second, but they are technically still in that business. Those are the primary ones. They have some others that are similar to digital coupons, load-to-card coupons, but that's really the vast majority.

Analyst: How does Neptune measure whether an incentive actually drives an incremental purchase?

Expert: We see through our integrations with the retailers when those coupons are redeemed and where they are redeemed. We process that data and then we also work with [a] third-party research company that has relationships with the first-party sales data. [It] knows every product that's sold everywhere. We match those things up and say, "What is the purchasing habits prior to the incentive?" "The incentive was during this period in these stores."

Analyst: Where do consumers actually access and redeem the offers? What are the offers primarily on? What are the products that have digital incentives on them, given that Neptune services a lot of industries and products?

Expert: Primarily, again, most of the CPG. The other secondary types of products like pharma and cellular, it's really primarily food and non-food CPG brands that utilise those. Those coupons primarily live on retailer apps, so CVS app, Walgreens app, Albertsons app and so on. They are individual by retailer and retail-specific.

Analyst: Could you provide a use case for in-store media?

Expert: This is physical signage that lives in-store and there are a couple of different products that they have within the four walls of the store. Primarily, ShelfTalk, which is an 8x16 plastic sign that sits at shelf, usually at product. Again, this is to draw attention and highlight specific attributes that the brand wants to communicate at the shelf. Similar products are things called FloorTalk, which are big stickers that sit on the floor. There are other elements that, depending on the retailer, can hang within the store, like signage, whether it be standalone signage or other physical banners and those types of things, could be end-aisle displays as well, which are, think about like a freestanding cardboard stand that may have product on it, may have signage on it, anything that's physical in terms of signage within the store.

Analyst: Where in the store are the advertisements primarily placed?

Expert: Really, all over. They can be at the entrance, at the front doors. They could be, one area was on shopping carts. So, we think about a grocery store, on the shopping cart there's a physical sign, in the aisle within the store, on the floor within the store, really depending on certain areas of the speciality, like the produce section or the bakery or those sorts of things.

Analyst: Is Neptune responsible for physically placing and managing the advertising materials?

Expert: Yes. Neptune has a large like, the last number I remember was, about 3,000 individuals who go and both install them at certain times and then remove them and it's on a store-by-store basis. For instance, CVS has, let's say, 8,000 stores across the country. An advertiser may only purchase 1,000 of them or 2,000. So, specifically based on where those stores are, NRS employees will go in and either install or remove them, basing on the contracted time they are supposed to be up.

Analyst: Could you provide a use case for digital media?

Expert: This is primarily digital advertising that may be on the open web or within app. This is, again, targeted media that is usually targeted around specific retailers or shopping habits, finding audiences that are connected to specific products and then delivering again digital media banners and so on within the Internet environment.

Analyst: What digital media channels does Neptune use to reach shoppers?

Expert: I would say primarily open-web, some entries into e-mail networks and, I believe, they have tried to crack into social a little bit, but it's primarily open-web display.

Analyst: What data does the company use for targeting consumers?

Expert: Usually, we will partner with third parties like The Trade Desk or others that will actually own the targeting and we will arbitrage that media. We will buy it from a third party. Neptune will mark it up in terms of a cost perspective and then run that in conjunction with a media campaign.

Analyst: How is using Neptune different from buying advertising directly through Google, Meta or through retailers' media network?

Expert: It's not very different. In fact, the only difference really if a brand were to want to buy digital media, I'd be surprised if they went to Neptune specifically just for digital media. The value proposition is you have got digital incentives. You have got in-store. You are running this whole campaign. So, to run a holistic one-stop shop, Neptune will provide those services, in this case, digital media, that are part of a larger campaign. But again, in terms of differentiating from a Trade Desk or a Google or whoever, they are really not. In fact, they are probably more expensive. The one actually slightly different thing I would say to that is Neptune does have a lot of data that says you should buy in and around these specific stores. The actual location targeting that we do for in-store media can apply to the digital media, so that piece of it is a little bit unique.

Analyst: Could you provide a use case for digital out-of-home?

Expert: Yes. Similar to digital media, we utilise existing networks of digital out-of-home screens, whether it be gas stations or gyms or nearby digital screens that are near retail locations and then deliver media through those. Again, not very different or unique from a lot of other media companies in that market, but a little bit unique in that you can purchase that as part of a larger programme that would include in-store, digital incentives and so on.

Analyst: Where are Neptune's digital advertising screens primarily located? Are the screens located near retail stores or near other high-traffic locations?

Expert: Primarily near store. That's really the main focus is in and around retail. We don't really do much, let's say, at airports or in restaurants or those types of things where other digital home networks are. We are in and around and, sometimes, even in inside the four walls of a store. Like CVS has a great network of screens near their pharmacy, so we tap into those kinds of things.

Analyst: Does the company own the screens or does it have partnerships for them?

Expert: Partnerships. My understanding is that we don't own, especially in the digital out-of-home, any of them. It's really a partnership. In many cases, we are sharing that inventory. If they are, let's say, CVS, there are five slots where an advertiser could go, Neptune may own 2-3 of them. The retailer may own 1-2 of them and then some other [player would own the rest].

Analyst: Does Neptune sell all the products individually or does the company also sell them in a bundle?

Expert: Both. There are plenty of programmes that are sold individually where you just buy in-store or just buy digital incentives and there are many that bought all products included.

Analyst: What percentage of times do you think the products are bundled and sold vs individually sold?

Expert: If there are four products here, I would say three of them, digital incentives, in-store and digital media or digital out-of-home, one of those two, would be probably in the 61-70% of programmes because they are usually with a larger, so again, a Coke, a Pepsi, a Unilever would certainly buy multiple assets or products as part of an overall campaign and the smaller ones will say, "I can just afford in-store," or, "I can just do digital incentives."

Which of Neptune's four core segments do you anticipate being the fastest growing and potentially driving the largest share of revenue in future?

Expert: I would say the largest share of revenue will still probably be digital incentives. I think that's going to continue to be the most efficient moneymaker. It's very efficient in terms of EBITDA. In-store will continue to be a large piece of their overall revenue, but the EBITDA on that is very difficult because there are so many physical elements to it, but in terms of the fastest-growing, I would say digital incentives. I'd like to say digital media and out-of-home will be a piece of that in terms of growth, but in terms of scale, I think it still will be relatively small.

Could you specify the industry that best specifies or describes Neptune's core operations?

Expert: I would say consumer packaged goods, or I guess retail. At the end of the day, our clients are CPG, but we are retail media.

Analyst: Would you say the industry is retail media and shopper marketing based on your discussion until now?

Expert: Yes. That's exactly what I would say. That's really retail in terms of the industry.

What has the AAGR been of the retail media and shopper marketing industry over the past three years – less than 0%, 0-5%, 6-10%, 11-20% or greater than 20%?

Expert: I would say 20%-plus. Overall, as an industry, it's been very fast-paced. It's just been growing. We can get into some more specifics, but it's been growing very fast in terms of an overall industry.

What do you think have been the 1-2 key drivers of historical market growth?

Expert: I think it's the need for advertisers and CPG brands to deliver accountability. In the past, the reason this has been growing so fast is its stealing share from large national media, TV budgets and those types of things. What's been happening is brands have been saying, "I need to quantify my advertising spend," and retail media and shopper marketing is very good at being able to say, "I spent X and I saw X increase in sales," or didn't, but being able to match those two things together. So, I think that accountability and transactional elements of analysis is driving that growth. The CMOs and brand managers are saying, "I need to put my money where I know it's working and move it away from places I'm not sure if it's working," and retail media and shopper marketing are really good at doing that.

What do you think the industry's AAGR might be over the next three years?

Expert: I do think it's going to slow across the overall industry. So, I would say 11-20%, probably in that range, or maybe 6-10%, but I still think in the next three years, I could see another high teens and then slowing over time.

What do you think will be the 1-2 key drivers of future market growth? Why is its growth also going to slightly slow down, in your opinion?

Expert: I think in terms of why it's going to continue to grow, the retail environment for CPG brands has been very challenging. Even coming several years out of COVID now, there are still lots of changes within retail. Retail, in general, has been a very difficult market for brands to predict. It's been very volatile. I think the ability for brands to put targeted dollars toward increasing sales or stealing share from a competitor will continue to drive this industry well. I think the decline, again, I wouldn't say decline. The slowing of that growth, I think, will be largely due to a maximisation of the platform. There's just not as much, the number of retailers, the amount of inventory that's able to be utilised does have a limit. I think that growth is going to max out sooner than later.

To what degree do you think the industry is correlated to economic cyclicality? Do you think it's a counter-cyclical, very cyclical, somewhat cyclical, somewhat resilient or resilient market?

Expert: I would say it's somewhat cyclical. I don't know that it's super resilient. I was going to say very cyclical, but I would say somewhat because it's very economy-driven. Then, depending on the brand, they will say, "Hey, our sales are down." Some will just say, "Our sales are down. We can't spend any more money," or some will say, "Our sales are down, we need to spend more money to get those sales up," but I would say it's somewhat cyclical in terms of macroeconomics.

Analyst: Do you think retail media and shopper marketing solutions are need-to-have or good-to-have?

Expert: Personally, I think it's a need to have. I think largely because consumers are also less predictable and more finicky than they used to be. The other part of the need-to-have is your competitors are doing it. I think that the defensive position that a lot of brands will have is super important and this will continue to be an area that battles will be fought between Cokes and Pepsis and being able to do that. I think emerging brands also are starting to utilise this. Again, it's expensive in terms of the overall industry, but I think that's an area where you will see smaller brands will try and get a foothold in.

Analyst: What do you pre-empt the situation to be during an economic downturn when prices are high and people are cutting budgets? Do you think retail media and shopper marketing solutions are still going to be a part of customer budgets?

Expert: I do. I think it will be smaller, their budgets will shrink, but I think in terms of them eliminating it as a tactic or as a marketing channel, it will continue to be there. One of the other things that this channel does very well overall is protect against not only competitors, but private label. Private label is a big concern for big national brands. If you can get your CVS-branded Advil, it's going to be a lot cheaper than your Advil. There's a place that those brands need to continue to defend against that.

Based on public information, what technological evolutions or innovations do you think we should anticipate in the industry over the next 3-5 years?

Expert: I think AI will or should, within the overall industry, I don't know that Neptune will do this, but in general, I think AI could have a very important impact on predicting both consumer behaviour and consumer habits as well as basket and shopper assortment, what people are buying together and being able to drive smarter and more targeted campaigns and media around programmes, more so than the current human analytics that are being put toward it. I think that's going to be a big piece of it. AI is one. I would say another is the continued evolution of digital screens. We often think of digital screens as these big, large units that are at the front of a store or big TV hanging in a retail environment. I think we will see technology with smaller screens at shelf. The ability to drive networked digital screens inside the store, I think, will be an opportunity anyway for both retailers and companies.

Analyst: Could you provide a couple of examples of where you think AI can be used in the industry? In what processes could AI play a role?

Expert: I think a lot of consumer behaviour analysis, basket assortment, what people are buying together. They are buying peanut butter and jelly together, but there are lots of complexities in terms of people buying certain categories together. You think about a drugstore. There are lots of things in that store. Are we seeing baskets, assortments, meaning what else they are purchasing together with medication, but they are also buying school supplies. I think AI will help identify opportunities for brands, both in terms of who they are buying, what they are buying and how often they are buying it. [Also], I think a lot with purchasing cycles, how long does it take to go through that tube of toothpaste or that bottle of shampoo? AI, I think, will be an important driver in answering a lot of those questions.

Do you see any downside risks that might materially impact market growth over the next three years? Do you anticipate any potential regulation changes or tech disruptions in the retail media and shopper marketing industry?

Expert: I think, from a regulation standpoint, not really. There's one area that is within digital signage and in-store signage, I don't see any regulatory elements there. Where I do see and it's starting to pop up in California and I think in one or two other states, digital incentives, making digital incentives more equitable so that the need or requirement to have paper versions of digital incentives is becoming a little bit of a thing. It's not quite an issue yet, but over the next three years, it's something that could be an issue. Then, the other is predatory pricing. A lot of retailers through digital incentives will have different coupon values for different individuals. You might get a coupon that's USD 1 off. I might get a coupon that's USD 1.50 off and that's based on our purchasing habits. I do see that as a regulatory risk that could happen in the not-too-distant future.

How fragmented do you consider the retail media and shopper marketing industry to be? Do 2-5 players capture the majority of market share? Is it a monopoly? Is it fragmented or highly fragmented?

Expert: I would say 2-5 strong players. It's certainly not a monopoly, but it's not bigger than that.

How protected is the market? What are the barriers to entry in the market?

Expert: I think the largest barrier [to entry] is relationships with the retailers, the ability to partner with them, to be their partner in terms of a third-party seller to sell either their in-store media, signage and those kinds of things or to integrate and partner with them for their digital incentives. That is a significant barrier that some start-ups would have a hard time unseating some of the big players in there. Again, the Neptunes and Inmars and Acostas and a couple of others, they have got a pretty strong hold in there and I think it'd be difficult to unseat them.

What do you think are the barriers to scale in the industry?

Expert: I think the relationships with the retailers, that is a critical piece of this and I think in terms of barriers to growing is just the amount of retail relationships that they can have. There are so many CVSes and so many shoppers at each of those retailers. The scale is very large, but I think in terms of growing that scale from where it is now would be difficult. One other thing, just to go back on one segment about competitors in terms of others, the one challenger in this is retail-agnostic competitors, especially for digital incentives. We often talk about Neptune and Inmar and Acosta and a couple of others in this larger coupon world, but Fetch and Ibotta have really taken a big chunk out of the industry over the last few years and I see that continuing to grow and taking [share], at least in the digital incentive side. Not so much in the in-store or digital media side, but in terms of digital incentives, Ibotta and Fetch will definitely continue to grow their share of the business.

Who are Neptune's top three competitors? Could you name the most comparable competitors based on what they are doing and their sizes?

Expert: I think Inmar is probably the biggest in terms of their in-store. Fetch and Ibotta are two others that I would definitely [name]. I would say Acosta is another and then RR Donnelley, but I would say mostly Acosta.

Analyst: Who do you think are the most comparable competitors? Who do you think are the top three competitors that you want to talk about?

Expert: I would say Inmar and Ibotta are probably the two real [ones].

Analyst: Would you consider Inmar, Ibotta and Fetch for the discussion?

Expert: Yes.

What are the market shares in percentage ranges for Neptune, Inmar, Ibotta and Fetch? Alternatively, could you rank the players against each other as one, two, three and four?

Expert: I think Neptune is probably number one. I would say, in terms of different products, so the in-store media piece, Neptune and Inmar are really the two primaries. The digital incentive piece, Fetch and Ibotta come in, so again, in terms of one, two, three, I would say Neptune [is one], Inmar is two, Ibotta is three and Fetch is four.

What do you think are Neptune, Inmar and Fetch's revenues? Ibotta is a public company. Might Neptune's revenue be USD 0-50m, USD 50m-100m, USD 100m-200m, USD 200m-300m, USD 300m-400m or more?

Expert: I would say Neptune's revenue is over USD 1bn, or I would say probably USD 800m-900m. Inmar is probably USD 600m-700m. Fetch is probably a lot smaller. I would say probably USD 200m-300m.

What might be Neptune, Inmar and Fetch's revenue growth rates? Might Neptune's revenue growth rate be less than 0%, 0-5%, 6-10%, 11-20% or higher?

Expert: I would say 6-10% in terms of revenue growth. Inmar, in terms of percentage of their growth opportunity, is probably much higher. I would say 11-20%. Fetch, 6-10%. [Ibotta], I think there's still a lot of growth for those guys.

What have been Neptune, Inmar, Ibotta and Fetch's growth drivers for the last financial year? Do you think Neptune's growth was organic [the company has grown by itself], acquisition-based [the company's growth is a function of any acquisitions it made] or a mix [the company grew both organically and through M&A]?

Expert: I would say organic. I don't know if there's anyone else that Neptune is going to buy at the moment. I would say Inmar is mixed. Fetch would be organic. [Ibotta], I think mixed. They might buy somebody.

What might be the average EBITDA margin for the players mentioned – less than 0%, 0-10%, 11-20% or higher? How profitable do you think the players are on average?

Expert: Probably 21-30%. I know that, again, this is just ballpark range, but Neptune is in the mid-teens, I would say low-teens.

How would you benchmark each player's EBITDA against 21-30%, considering it as the industry average? Do you think Neptune's EBITDA is above, on or below industry?

Expert: I would say below industry. [Inmar] would be below industry. [Fetch], above. [Ibotta], above.

How do you think the players differentiate themselves, starting with Neptune?

Expert: I think Neptune's differentiation is really twofold. One is its depth of products. They have a lot of different capabilities that they bring to market. I think, secondly, their local install team, those 3,000 people who actually put the signs up, that's actually not very exciting, but very differentiating feature for them. Also, again, their retail relationships, just the number of retailers that they have.

Analyst: What do you think is a differentiator for Inmar?

Expert: Inmar, I would say that their price and their nimbleness. One of the problems is that they are not Neptune. One of Neptune's challenges is they are big and difficult to work with and slow. Inmar, while it is also a big company and has legacy, they move a little faster is my understanding and easier to work with and pricing. I would say pricing for Inmar as well.

Analyst: What do you think is a differentiator for Fetch?

Expert: I think, just their business model and their accountability. I think they are able to deliver much more transparency than Inmar or Neptune. I think Ibotta is also very similar in that their ability to deliver results, their product works very well and probably works better and more efficiently than Inmar or Neptune.

Analyst: Do all the competitors mentioned also have all four products that Neptune has or might there be any differentiation in the offerings?

Expert: There would be a change, too. Neptune, again, probably why they are ranked one is they work across digital incentives in-store and all that. Fetch and Ibotta are really just digital incentives. They may have some digital media capabilities, but they do not have in-store. Inmar definitely has in-store and digital incentives and some digital media. Inmar and Neptune are very similar and then Fetch and Ibotta are important players in it.

Analyst: What do you think is a differentiator for Ibotta?

Expert: I would say their integration into Walmart. They have a unique relationship with Walmart. That is a driver. I think they are also retail-agnostic, so they really can work across all retail partners and their retail relationships are very different than, let's say, a Neptune or Inmar.

What do you think are customers' top three purchasing criteria? How do you think the criteria rank by importance?

Expert: I would say [the] number one criterion would be effectiveness. Does it work? Does it deliver on their specific goals? The other criterion would be price and that goes with efficiency. [Last is], I would say, [easiness] to work with. Agility maybe is another word. Their ease of ways of working in operations.

Analyst: Would you label the third criterion as ease of use and operations?

Expert: Yes.

How important do you think price is to customers in the retail media and shopper marketing industry? Do you think the product is commoditised, somewhat commoditised or not commoditised at all, and why?

Expert: I would say somewhat commoditised. It's somewhat commoditised because, at the end of the day, it's delivering a coupon or a sign in a store and I think the reason it's not 91-100% commoditised is because of those other things like price and agility, ease of operations. The product itself is not that unique, but how it's delivered can be.

What do you think has been a key driver of Neptune's historical growth?

Expert: I would say its exclusive relationships with retailers. There were certain retailers that, if you wanted to work with Walgreens or with CVS or with Kroger, you had to work with Neptune. That exclusive relationship with retailers has been the main driver.

How fast do you think Neptune could grow over the next three years – less than 0%, 0-5%, 6-10%, 11-20% or greater than 20%?

Expert: I would say somewhere between 6% and 20%, 6% and 10% feels a little low.

Analyst: Could the company grow at 11-20%?

Expert: I don't know. Somewhere in the middle there, but let's say 6-10%.

Analyst: Why do you think Neptune is going to grow slightly slower than the industry, which is projected to grow at 11-20%?

Expert: They have lost some retail relationships in the last few years and that's been a big driver. They have lost Walgreens and a couple of others for several reasons, I think largely because of price and the operational piece of it. So that is one. Then, I think the other would be, I do think the digital incentives like Fetch and Ibotta will continue to eat into their product and I think Neptune doesn't really understand that as much.

What could be some of the most interesting ways to grow Neptune organically, in your opinion?

Expert: I would say improve their digital media and tap into the retail media network.

Analyst: How do you think the company could improve its digital media?

Expert: I think just be smarter and more efficient in terms of the networks that they utilise and, again, tapping into the retail media relationships that their retailers already have. So, a retailer will work with Neptune for their in-store signage and their digital incentive coupons, but they will work with somebody else or have their own in-house elements for their retail media networks for the digital.

What could be some of the most interesting ways to improve the company's margins, in your opinion?

Expert: Again, I would say probably moving away from the in-store, in terms of margin, moving away from the in-store physical signage. It's very expensive and inefficient. I think the more digital products they have, that will definitely improve their EBITDA and just overall efficiency.

Analyst: Would you look at monitoring a particular KPI or metric to improve the company's operational efficiency?

Expert: Operational efficiency, I don't know if this is too micro, but just the way approvals and deal structure that Neptune has is very laborious and very antiquated and is not agile and is not speed-to-market and is not very customer-friendly. So, I think their ability to, again, do more digital programmes, but just operate internally in terms of approvals and deal structure would be a big improvement for them.

What could be some of the most interesting ways through M&A to grow the company, in your opinion?

Expert: I would think somehow purchasing or partnering with a retail media network. It's the one area of the overall industry that they have not and have intentionally not gotten into and I think they should.

Based on publicly announced acquisitions, how would you describe the company's M&A strategy? Has it carried out any M&A in the past?

Expert: They have. I think, several years ago, they bought Quotient or Coupons.com and that was a big smart move for them. It was adding on new areas of buying the big player within the industry. In that case, it was Quotient that helped advance their [goal].

Analyst: Do you think that its past acquisition was opportunistic or growth-related in nature?

Expert: It was opportunistic.

Could it make sense for the company to acquire, merge with or be acquired by any of the players inside or outside the retail media and shopper marketing space, in your opinion? Could you comment on any acquisitions you think it can make?

Expert: Yes. I think they could buy a retail media network or some digital platform that really boosts, shores up their digital offering in a much better way.

Analyst: Could you highlight names of any potential acquisition targets?

Expert: Yes. They could buy a company called InMarket. They could buy a company called MiQ. Those are two off the top of my head, I would say.

Analyst: Do you think Neptune could be acquired by a player either inside or outside the retail media and shopper marketing space?

Expert: I don't think so, unless it's a large thing like Amazon or Google. Inmar would never be able to buy Neptune. Neptune may want to buy Inmar, but probably not. If somebody were to buy Neptune, it would have to be some major entity that is somewhat outside the industry.

What would you say are the 1-2 biggest risks that the company faces?

Expert: I would say the retailer is taking these services in-house. Right now, Neptune is a third-party service provider for all of our retail partners. It's very possible that those retail partners like CVS, Walgreens and Albertsons decide, instead of having a revenue share with Neptune, to just take those services in-house. That's happened in other parts of the industry in the past. Retail media had happened, so that's a possibility. That's one big risk. The other, I would say, is just digital incentives like the Fetchs and Ibottas and others that could eat into their overall profit.

Is there anything that the market does not understand about Neptune, in your opinion? Do you think there are any common misconceptions about the company?

Expert: Yes. I think Neptune has a lot more assets than they are putting out in the market and the market sees them as an old large established brand that just isn't as nimble.