2026.10.02 | Substack | Markets | TMTB Morning Wrap

Happy Friday! QQQs +55bps ahead of NFP today with Oil -4% and yields down 2-3bps across the curve. BTC +2%

In Tech, Semis leading the way higher as NVDA +1.7% close to ATHs this morning on the back of MS making it a top pick after NDRs this week; STX/WDC ~-10% on news Toshiba is investing ¥60bn to double its production capacity for hard disk drives while targeting 30% market share; APP -5% continues to be weak, today on weaker 3p mention; ON +8% on revising SYNA deal terms (cash; immediately accretive).

Overnight, Asia mixed: TPX -0.99%, NKY -0.94%, Hang Seng -2.6%, HSCEI -2.31%, Taiwan TAIEX +0.25%, Korea KOSPI +0.46%. Softbank -5%

Lots of good stuff to get to, so let’s get right to it…

HDDs/WDC/STX: Toshiba to invest 60 billion yen to double HDD supply; demand expands due to difficulties in semiconductor memory procurement - Trendforce

AI data centers are driving a new wave of demand for high-capacity storage, prompting Toshiba to significantly expand its HDD production. According to Nikkei, the Japanese technology group plans to double production capacity for hard disk drives used in AI data centers within fiscal 2027. Toshiba will invest roughly JPY 60 billion (US$380 million) to expand its facilities in the Philippines.

The expansion marks Toshiba’s first major HDD investment in around five years. In addition to adding production lines at its Philippine plant, the company will begin handling new products that increase storage capacity per drive by as much as 40%, the report notes. Looking further ahead, Toshiba plans to work toward mass production of 65TB-class HDDs in 2030, followed eventually by 100TB-class models.

Some feedback on Slack:

NVDA: MS reinstates Top Pick after NDR, sees land/power constraints strengthening NVDA’s tokens-per-GW advantage

MS says after hosting Jensen Huang, CFO Colette Kress and IR Toshiya Hari, NVDA’s customer breadth, hyperscaler share gains and agentic demand reinforce the upside case. Management sees revenue per GW rising from ~$40B toward >$50B with Feynman as land/power/shell become the constraint, favoring NVDA’s higher token density; agentic workloads should lift CPU demand but drive much more GPU spend, potentially ~10x the token usage of human users. NVDA also sees CPU revenue ramping from ~$20B in 2026 to ~$40B in 2027; MS reinstates NVDA as Top Pick, OW/$300.

CBRS: Freedom upgrades to Buy/$209 after -17% selloff, sees OpenAI/NVDA fears overdone

Freedom says CBRS shares fell ~17% on reports OpenAI is using NVDA GPUs for its “Ultrafast” GPT-1 Sol model, but expects plenty of room for CBRS alongside NVDA, AMD and AWS, including potential architectures where GPUs handle prefill and CBRS WSE handles decode. Street expects CBRS revenue to more than triple to ~$2.95B in 2027 from ~$887M in 2026, with the key risks still timely capacity additions and execution. With shares near the ~$169 post-IPO low, Freedom sees pessimism as overdone and upgrades to Buy/$209 from Hold.

U/APP: Hearing Clev positive U/neg APP saying ROI on APP sounds pressured driving share gains towards U

U/APP: Wedbush says TRO denial favors Unity near term, but merits remain unresolved

Wedbush says the court’s denial of AppLovin’s request to immediately stop Unity’s Ad Quality SDK is only a ruling against interim relief, not on the underlying case. Wedbush sees Unity gaining ground, with Vector +23% q/q in Q2, reaching a $1B run rate two quarters early and Q3 Vector growth guided +19–21% q/q, while stronger Unity bidding in MAX could pressure APP take rates; it doubts APP will restrict Unity’s MAX access given the publisher-yield and antitrust risks.

ABNB: KeyBanc upgrades to OW/$191 on durable core growth + emerging hotel upside

KeyBanc upgrades ABNB to Overweight, arguing core growth is reaccelerating on product improvements, better conversion and stronger brand engagement, while hotels are emerging as a credible second growth engine and could add at least ~2pts to room-night growth over time with limited cannibalization. KeyBanc also sees ABNB as more AI beneficiary than victim given its differentiated inventory, direct traffic and brand, while shares trade below their 3-year median valuation and at a discount to lodging peers.

TWLO: Added to SP500 from SP400

ORCL: First insider buy > $1M since 2022

Prepared Remarks

@P\_Remarks

First $Orcl insider buy of >$1m since 2022 $3.5m from board member Stephen Rusckowski investor.oracle.com/investor-news/…

10:49 PM · Oct 1, 2026 · 6.35K Views

8 Replies · 5 Reposts · 94 Likes

U/APP: Hearing Clev positive U/neg APP saying ROI on APP sounds pressured driving share gains towards U

CLS: Bernstein sees ~$25B from new AI programs, with ’27 revenue/EPS materially above Street

Bernstein argues ’27 upside is broader than just OpenAI Jalapeno, sizing ~$25B of potential new-program revenue: ~$8B incremental Google TPU, ~$11.5B Jalapeno and ~$6B from 1.6T switching/AMD Helios. Even after heavily haircutting execution risk, Bernstein models $40.0B revenue/$23.79 EPS vs. Street $35.7B/$19.87, with company growth expected to accelerate from +65% in 2026. Key risks are Jalapeno manufacturing/ramp and Tomahawk 6 timing, but Bernstein sees positive risk/reward into the 10/27 analyst day and reiterates OP/$520.

Memory:

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

@DirtyTesLa We cut our RAM in half for the Tesla AI5 chip (now 72GB of LP5) and 1/3 for AI6 (now 144GB of LP6). This was the only way to get enough volume for Optimus production and greatly reduces cost. As it turns out, we think this will have a negligible effect on Optimus performance,…

7:51 PM · Oct 1, 2026 · 1.56M Views

521 Replies · 716 Reposts · 11.2K Likes

Memory: KB Securities sees memory upcycle accelerating, with DRAM/NAND pricing above expectations and 2027–28 tighter than 2026

KB Securities expects 4Q26 commodity DRAM pricing +10–15% q/q and NAND +15–20% q/q, both above market expectations, with SSD bit demand +80% y/y on AI inference. KB says MU is sharply raising 2027 HBM pricing as annual contracts catch up to DRAM inflation, while constrained fab/cleanroom capacity and HBM mix should keep 2027–28 supply-demand tighter than

1. Top picks are Samsung and SK hynix.

Samsung / HBM: Proposes 2027 HBM4 prices above 3× current HBM3E – Maeil Business

Maeil Business reports Samsung has proposed 2027 HBM4 prices in the mid-to-high $4 range per gigabit, versus about $1.50 for HBM3E, as annual supply negotiations approach their final stage this month. Samsung is seeking higher prices for HBM4’s performance, with the report citing stable 11.7Gbps transfer speeds and a peak of 13Gbps. Maeil also cites TrendForce forecasting industry HBM average selling prices up 121% in 2027, driven by a greater HBM4 sales mix and constrained supply.

AVGO: UBS NDR with CEO/CFO points to upside to FY27/28 AI guide, with XPU + networking momentum intact

UBS says after a virtual NDR with AVGO’s CEO/CFO, management framed FY27/FY28 AI revenue guidance as conservative, with v8i ramping in 2027 and its flagship XPU customer committed to the next two generations shipping in 2028/29; AVGO also confirmed ~4–5GW/year of XPU shipments in CY27. UBS sees rising content from SRAM, ARM CPU and advanced packaging, while networking is already ~30% of AI revenue and could grow faster as Tomahawk 7 doubles throughput and switch/interconnect counts rise. Powered-shell constraints are viewed as a timing issue rather than structural; UBS stays Buy/$470.

AVGO / Anthropic: Banks assemble $60B AI chip financing package – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports Broadcom’s banking syndicate is preparing a $60B financing package to fund AI chips and infrastructure for Anthropic and other customers. Banks are preparing to syndicate a $42B senior-secured tranche, while Blackstone is leading $18B of junior debt, committing $9B from its funds and planning to distribute the remainder. The financing has been under discussion for weeks and would support additional purchases of Broadcom chips and data-center equipment.

NVDA: Lenders seek stronger guarantees on GPU-backed loans – Reuters

Reuters reports lenders are pushing for stronger guarantees under Nvidia’s $500B financing initiative, questioning how much GPUs will be worth as long-term collateral. Banks typically underwrite chips over three to four years, versus Nvidia’s argument that they can generate revenue for a decade. Tens of billions of dollars of prospective loans are expected to carry stronger customer contracts and Nvidia guarantees; bankers say some structures may require investment-grade customer revenue rather than relying primarily on chip resale values.

AMZN / NVDA: Amazon explores $8B GPU sale and leaseback – FT

FT reports Amazon is in talks to place roughly $8B of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a special-purpose vehicle funded by outside investors, then lease the equipment back. The chips are already deployed across more than a dozen US data centers in five states. Investors expect the vehicle to obtain an investment-grade rating supported by Amazon’s credit quality. The proposal comes as Amazon expects $220B of capital expenditure this year, primarily for AWS.

CRDO: TD Cowen road meetings raise confidence, sees FY27 concern as SpaceX timing not share loss

TD Cowen says after hosting CFO Dan Fleming and IR Dan O’Neil, the gap between CRDO’s FY27 outlook and SpaceX commentary likely reflects timing/visibility into AEC orders rather than an architecture shift or share loss; underlying demand remains intact. At ~17x CY28E EPS, Cowen sees the market underappreciating durable copper/optical growth, with OCP in October showcasing ALC and December/F2Q27 earnings a bigger catalyst if SpaceX firms capacity needs and CRDO guides to a material revenue tailwind. Buy/$300.

MRVL: Piper says Investor Day could reset LT model higher, with XPU “Attach” the key upside

Piper is bullish into MRVL’s 10/6 Investor Day, expecting a new LT model potentially stretching to FY31 with ~$45B revenue and ~$19 EPS, implying ~45% 4-year EPS CAGR. Piper sees the biggest upside in XPU “Attach” rather than compute, highlighting the $120B Google deal focused on TPU attach sockets and estimating 2–3 attach chips per XPU at ~$3K ASP each; core compute ramps look slower, including MSFT, while AWS Trainium is expected to grow ~30% y/y in 2027. Piper also expects NPO adoption to ramp in 2H27 and sees a stronger optical/connectivity story into 2030; reiterates OW/$270.

SpaceX: Evercore sees Grok Bot as underappreciated always-on agent opportunity

Evercore says early adoption is already strong, with DAUs rising from ~60k to 533k in seven weeks and 10-day download cohorts scaling from ~130k to 782k; by days 31–40, downloads were >18x Claude’s and ~44%/30% of Meta AI/ChatGPT. Evercore sizes the long-term attributable TAM at ~$87B and base-case Grok Bot revenue at ~$17B annually, with the next key catalyst whether enterprise trials convert and usage broadens beyond developers into recurring knowledge-work workflows.

SOFTWARE

NOW: JPM partner checks show healthy growth + bigger renewals, but AI ROI scrutiny is delaying some deals

JPM says across 10 partner/customer conversations, NOW growth remains mostly double-digit with some partners at 20%+, while renewals are exceptionally strong and deal sizes are typically rising 10–20%. AI interest is high but production adoption remains gated by token costs, data quality, governance and ROI scrutiny, contributing to longer sales cycles, though partners view demand as delayed rather than lost. Pricing remains healthy, including ~12–15%+ increases at some large enterprises, while platform consolidation and ITOM/CMDB remain key growth drivers; stays OW.

OKTA: TD Cowen bus tour meeting with CRO/IR points to improving demand, but AI monetization still early

TD Cowen says after meeting with OKTA’s CRO and IR, demand is brightening with better pipeline conversion/deal expansion, while FQ2 RPO/cRPO grew 17%/14% y/y and new-product contribution continues rising. Emerging AI use cases are elevating identity/security demand, with OKTA pushing its vendor-neutral AI/Agent SSO positioning through partners including CRWD/PANW, but monetization remains early as conversations still center on governance/ROI rather than usage-based pricing. TD Cowen stays Hold/$200.

SNOW: TD Cowen bus tour meeting with CFO/IR highlights broadening AI demand, with core growth still healthy

TD Cowen says after meeting with CFO Brian Robins, IR and finance leadership, AI demand is broadening beyond CoCo into Cowork, AI Gateway, agents and early post-training use cases, with ~9.1K accounts using AI exiting 2Q but significant user-level penetration still ahead. Management is seeing rising interest in open-weight models/model routing and post-training on proprietary Snowflake data. Management also pushed back on concerns that AI is merely pulling forward consumption, arguing optimization risk is smaller than feared and the LLM + enterprise-data flywheel supports durable growth.

MNDY: Wells partner check points to softer 3Q/new-logo pressure, with AI adoption still nascent

Wells says after speaking with MNDY’s largest global partner, 3Q came in softer than expected as new logos remain pressured by weak outbound marketing ROI, AI search headwinds and more competition; the partner expects 2026 net-new ARR below 2025 and sees renewals getting tougher on pricing. September improved, and 4Q should benefit from larger renewals, but net-new customer trends remain challenging.

SAIL: KeyBanc initiates SW, sees agentic identity as secular driver but platform breadth caps upside

KeyBanc sees identity governance as a key control point for AI agents, estimating agent identity could reach ~20% of a ~$70B identity TAM and ~$190M of AI revenue within SAIL’s installed base assuming ~30% pricing uplift and ~40% adoption. However, SAIL’s limited PAM/runtime footprint and rising competition from CRWD, PANW, NOW and startups constrain the upside case; KeyBanc sees shares fairly valued at ~8x CY27 revenue/43x FCF. FY29 targets call for ~$2.1B ARR, including ~$800M of AI-driven ARR, 22%+ EBIT margins and $400M+ FCF.

INTERNET

DASH: Hearing M-sci positive saying GOV tracking near high end of guide

RDDT: Guggehnheim says September data shows audience reach deceleration and weaker Google search traffic

Guggenheim says September Ads Manager reach growth slowed to +17.0% globally vs. +20.8% in August and +6.9% domestic vs. +7.2%, though a mid-September targeting-model change makes the sequential data noisy. Similarweb/Google traffic weakened more clearly, with 3Q Google traffic -5.9% y/y vs. +8.9% in 2Q, while app downloads improved sharply to +46.8% y/y from -27.9%.

META: Needham says off-BS commitments raise EV by 35%, making valuation materially richer than peers

Needham argues traditional EV misses ~$628B of META off-balance-sheet obligations at 6/30/26, including ~$278B of contracted leases not yet commenced and ~$350B of non-cancelable commitments, >5.6x its ~$112B of on-BS debt + leases. Including these lifts FY27 EV/revenue from ~6.15x to ~8.32x, a ~35% increase vs. only ~9% for AMZN and ~3% for GOOGL; META also added another ~$68B of contracted leases in July.

CVNA: JPM sees AI risks overblown, raises 3Q on production recovery but cuts 4Q/27 on lower GoS margins

JPM raises 3Q EBITDA to $825M vs. Street $793M as unit growth improves to 40% vs. 38% prior, but cuts GoS margin to 6.9% from 7.5% as higher benchmark rates pressure loan-sale economics. JPM expects the rate impact to weigh more on 4Q before normalizing through 2027, lowering 4Q26/FY27 EBITDA to $695M/$4.125B, though FY27/28 estimates remain above Street. AI disruption risk is viewed as overblown; JPM stays OW/$100.

OTHER

COIN: Wells initiates EW/$200, sees crypto recovery but consumer fee compression limiting upside

Wells expects a meaningful crypto recovery through 2028, but says stronger activity may not fully convert to revenue as consumer pricing pressure weighs on take rates; its 2028 consumer volume is ~7% above Street, yet a 1.43% take rate ~9% below Street leaves transaction revenue ~2% below. Wells sees AI-driven fee transparency pushing users toward Advanced/Coinbase One or competitors, while USDC remains a key long-term upside lever but balances have been stuck around $75–77B for three quarters. Initiates Equal Weight/$200.

HOOD: Wells initiates EW/$125, sees LT winner but elevated expectations + softer retail engagement

Wells sees HOOD as a credible long-term winner, with international expansion the biggest customer-growth opportunity, but says current retail engagement is elevated while buying activity has cooled and newer cohorts remain untested. Wells argues the bigger LT question is whether HOOD can convert engagement into asset accumulation across Gold, retirement, banking and advisory; prediction markets are strategic but not essential, with ~$2B of revenue modeled by 2035 (~8% of total). Initiates Equal Weight/$125.

NEWS

EFX / TRU / FICO: FHFA plans to cut mortgage credit-report requirement to two bureaus – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports FHFA plans to require lenders selling mortgages to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to obtain credit data from two bureaus rather than all three of Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. An announcement could come as soon as October 12, with implementation one to three months later. The move follows FHFA’s decision to use the same mortgage pricing grid for VantageScore 4.0 and Classic FICO scores, eliminating the previous 20-point difference.

ON / SYNA: Revises Synaptics deal to $123 cash per share – onsemi

onsemi says it will acquire Synaptics for $123 per share in cash, or approximately $5.7B, replacing the original stock agreement valued at about $7B when announced. The revision follows an unsolicited competing proposal. onsemi now expects immediate non-GAAP EPS accretion and has identified additional revenue and manufacturing synergies beyond the previously announced $200M annual target. Morgan Stanley has committed debt financing, and closing remains expected by mid-2027.

SPCX / xAI: Compute rentals expand as customer commitments outgrow capacity – The Information

The Information reports SpaceX’s AI unit has become a major compute provider, securing billions of dollars in monthly commitments from customers including Anthropic and Google, and holding leasing talks with Microsoft. Anthropic’s disclosed commitments total nearly $84.5B. SpaceX plans to bring roughly 420,000 Nvidia GPUs online in November to help serve incoming demand, including a $1.1B-per-month contract starting in December. The report also identifies construction and drainage problems that could delay parts of the expansion.

OpenAI / NVDA / SoftBank: Nvidia and SoftBank complete final $20B investment installments – The Information

The Information reports Nvidia and SoftBank have each completed a final $10B investment in OpenAI, fulfilling their respective $30B commitments to the March fundraising round, which raised $122B at an $852B post-money valuation. OpenAI is now pursuing at least $30B of additional funding at a roughly $1.4T valuation. SoftBank’s cumulative OpenAI investment stands at $64.6B for a 13% stake; it funded the latest installment with an $11.1B high-yield bond offering.

Anthropic: Targets mid-November IPO and October 14 investor meeting – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports Anthropic is targeting an IPO as early as mid-November, with formal marketing potentially beginning the week of November 9 ahead of Thanksgiving. Bloomberg separately reports an October 14 meeting for select institutional investors, giving them access to senior management before the offering.

INTC / TSM: Intel 14A draws evaluation from major technology companies – DigiTimes

DigiTimes reports major technology companies are evaluating Intel’s 14A manufacturing process as a potential alternative to TSMC for advanced chipmaking capacity.

NVDA / PCB Supply Chain: Tests glass-free PCB materials for Rubin Ultra – DigiTimes

DigiTimes reports Nvidia is testing glass-free printed circuit board materials for its next-generation AI servers, including PTFE and hydrocarbon resin formulations. The materials are being evaluated for Rubin Ultra’s NVL576 switch tray ahead of the platform’s planned 2027 launch.

Huawei / Smartphones: Mate 90 launch highlights chip-capacity competition and memory inflation – Reuters

Reuters reports Huawei launched its Mate 90 smartphones with a new domestic Kirin chip, while Richard Yu said limited advanced-chip capacity must be shared between smartphones and Huawei’s Ascend AI processors. Memory costs have risen by an average of $200 per handset, squeezing margins. The flagship Mate 90 Pro Max starts at RMB9,999, up RMB2,000 from its predecessor. Reuters cites IDC estimating Huawei’s China shipments rose 13% in January–August despite a 7% decline in the overall market.

Samsung / Smartphones: Raises US Galaxy S26 prices by $100 to $200 – The Verge

The Verge reports Samsung has increased US prices by $100 across most Galaxy S26 configurations, lifting the base model to $999, while the 1TB S26 Ultra rises $200 to $1,999. The S26 and S26 Plus had already launched $100 above their predecessors, with Samsung partly attributing those earlier increases to higher memory costs. Apple and Google have also raised phone prices this year.

NVDA / China: State-backed firm disclosed restricted Blackwell chip financing – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports Semi-Tech Leasing, a Chinese state-backed financier, funded servers containing restricted Nvidia chips for AI infrastructure developer Glory View Technology. Investing.com’s account of the report says one disclosed transaction covered 32 Asus servers using B300 Blackwell chips, within financing for more than 700 servers. The report cites over RMB3B of sale-and-leaseback funding for Glory View since mid-2025, with much of the equipment intended for a China Mobile computing hub in Ningxia.

NVDA / China: US charges exporter over more than $300M of restricted servers – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports US prosecutors arrested the owner of Earthmade Computer over an alleged scheme to send more than $300M of export-controlled servers containing Nvidia GPUs to China. Prosecutors allege the company routed equipment through Malaysia and Singapore in 2023–24 and used false paperwork to conceal Chinese buyers. One cited purchase involved 27 servers containing H100 GPUs for about $7.6M.

PSKY: Warner acquisition debt falls sharply in initial trading – Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports investors suffered more than $100M of losses shortly after Paramount Skydance issued $52B of debt to fund its Warner acquisition. Eight-year US dollar junk bonds traded around 96 cents on the dollar on Thursday after being sold at par on Wednesday. Loans and investment-grade bonds also weakened, prompting complaints from investors to the underwriting banks.

OpenAI: Notifies more than 100 organizations of unauthorized agent activity – Reuters

Reuters reports OpenAI has alerted more than 100 organizations about unauthorized activity by its AI agents as it reviews roughly 50 petabytes of records following the Hugging Face breach. The review is expected to take months. OpenAI says it is adding technical and operational controls to address unintended internet use and inadequate restrictions on agent activity.

DIS: Plans TV consolidation and hundreds of additional job cuts – WSJ

WSJ reports Disney is preparing a television restructuring expected to consolidate divisions and eliminate hundreds of jobs. The plan would organize programming around streaming customers instead of separate legacy television brands and could affect executives across its production units, with further reductions expected at ABC News. Details may not be finalized until year-end. The changes follow more than 300 cuts this week, largely in human resources and IT.

CMCSA: NBCUniversal cuts hundreds of streaming technology jobs – Business Insider

Business Insider reports NBCUniversal is cutting a few hundred employees in its global streaming technology organization, including engineering and quality assurance roles. Most cuts affect Sky in the UK, with some US positions also eliminated. The reductions come as Comcast prepares to spin off NBCUniversal’s streaming and studio operations from its cable and broadband business next summer, and after Peacock recently reported its first positive adjusted EBITDA.