2026.10.09 | GP | BKNG | Booking.com: B2B & Agentic AI Threat

Primary:

ABNB

EXPE

BKNG

Associated:

HLT

MAR

Viewpoint:

Former Executive

Moderator: Andrew Kule (AK)

Jeff Varhol (JV), Former Commercial Excellence Director for the Americas - Booking Holdings

SUMMARY

Overview

The discussion assessed a global online travel platform’s growth opportunities across integrated trip planning, business partnerships, alternative accommodations, and AI-enabled booking. The expert believes the platform’s global inventory and strong direct demand provide durable advantages, although a major rival currently leads in US travel packages and B2B technology.

Key Insights

Integrated trip planning can improve acquisition by serving travelers who need flights or cars but no lodging. Its larger long- term benefit is coordinated service across bookings when disruptions occur. Trust was identified as the main driver of repeat usage. Pricing, selection, loyalty benefits, convenience, and customer support reinforce that trust. The platform appears best positioned to lead globally in integrated travel, while its principal rival remains ahead in the US due to longstanding packaging capabilities. Consolidating several B2B products into one technology platform should reduce duplication and strengthen competitiveness. The expert expects meaningful contract wins after implementation. B2B margins are generally lower than consumer-direct margins, but B2B volume improves supplier negotiating leverage and captures demand that might otherwise go to competitors. In US alternative accommodations, the platform remains well behind the two leading brands. Success requires easier host tools, stronger consumer awareness, localized execution, and more individual-host inventory. AI may reshape travel discovery, but near-term OTA disintermediation appears unlikely. Payments, inventory connectivity, servicing, refunds, and reliability remain difficult to replicate at scale. AI could benefit OTAs through higher-intent traffic and reduced dependence on traditional paid search. However, traffic economics and customer lifetime value remain uncertain.

Competitive Landscape

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Company type

Positioning

Advantages

Challenges

Global booking platform

Strongest global position

Broad international inventory, trusted direct channel, substantial alternative- accommodation scale

Behind in US B2B technology and individual-host rentals

Major OTA rival

Leader in US packaging and B2B

Mature technology, incumbent partnerships, strong domestic awareness

Less global inventory depth

Home-sharing leader

Strongest US rental brand

Host-friendly tools and high consumer awareness

AI travel platforms

Emerging discovery channel

Personalized recommendations and potentially strong intent

Expansion into other services may dilute rental focus

Accuracy, fulfillment, payments, and support remain immature

Quantitative Insights

Metric

Detail

Integrated-trip growth

Low-double-digit growth, approximately twice overall transaction growth

Direct transactions

About two-thirds of total

Mobile mix

High-50% range, up roughly 5–10 percentage points over two years

B2B revenue sharing

Commonly around 40–60% or 50–50; some arrangements near 10%

B2B contract length

Typically 3–5 years, sometimes with 1–2-year renewals

Alternative accommodations

Approximately 37% of room nights; recent quarterly growth was 4%

US room-night growth

High single digits

AI-sourced room nights

About 1% or less

OTA outlook

Expert remains constructive over the next 3–5 years

AK: Thanks so much for joining us. My name is Andrew Kule. Today we'll be talking about Booking.com. We'll be talking about some of its initiatives along the lines of Connected Trip, the B2B opportunity, their ability to grow share in their alternative accommodation sector, as well as whether that could actually gain share in the face of agentic AI and whether or not that will be a disintermediation threat or can that be something that can be generative to their overall business? It will be discussed today with our advisor, Jeff Varhol, who's a former commercial excellence director at Booking.com and he also had a lot of experience working at a bunch of other OTAs in the past which I'll be

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

explaining shortly. If you have any questions for the advisor, please feel free to email me at ask@guidepoint.com, that's ask@guidepoint.com, and I'll try to work your questions into our conversation. Your questions will be anonymous and to encourage audience participation. Jeff, thanks so much for joining us.

JV: Happy to be here this morning.

AK: Likewise, just want to make sure you won't be speaking about any material, not public information, security prices, your investment holdings, provide any investment recommendations during today's teleconference.

JV: Yep.

AK: Great. So just to be clear, just to give us a little bit of background, can you just tell us a little bit about what you did at Booking.com in terms of that role of commercial excellence? And we've also had a lot of other roles at some of the other OTAs as well, Travelocity, Orbitz, I know they've all been consolidated, but nevertheless, I'd love to hear some of the roles that you held at those companies too, just for our perspective.

JV: Sure. Starting with Booking.com, which is the most recent, the director of commercial excellence in that role, myself and my team were responsible for all elements of supporting our accommodation partnerships. So that was both hotels and alternative accommodation suppliers. So when I say supporting all elements of it, think things like product and feature rollout, partner performance, participation in marketing and promotional campaigns, partner events, representing the company and working with our partners on strategic projects that were impactful to those partners in the region and those could have been large broad projects like adding net rates in the Connected Trip or smaller... I won't say small things like local payment opportunities like doing installments or adding PIX as a payment opportunity or payment method in Brazil. So all elements of supporting those partnerships across the region both North and Latin America. You're right, I've worked at many of the OTAs that you've heard of. I have the backpack collection to prove it and have been involved in pretty much all elements of the travel ecosystem with the exception of cruise. So I always tell people don't ask me about cruise because I can't help you. But I've been involved in air, hotel, car. I also have been very involved in the B2B side of the business, both in terms of managing direct partnerships and in supporting those partnerships while in the travel verticals, so air and hotel and accommodations. So AK: Great.

JV: that's a little bit of my history.

AK: Excellent. So let's get right into it. I think one of the things that we should talk about and something that the company has talked about, and we'll get to the AI agentic disintermediation conversation as our discussion progresses, but just some of the initiatives that Booking.com is trying to undertake to grow their share. I'd love to know your thoughts about their Connected Trip strategies and, you know, whether or not you think of these Connected Trips and a lot of companies, even TripAdvisor back in the day, are focusing on this end-to-end solution to increase frequency, loyalty, and customer LTV. Do you think that this Connected Trip does create incremental loyalty? And I know the company says that their data does show that their bookers who use Booking.com or the travelers who use Booking.com across multiple travel verticals and those who do return more frequently, but I'd love to know what you're thinking or what you observed in real time. You know, they did say in the second quarter call that Connected Trip transactions did grow low double digits, so twice Booking.com's total transaction growth. So give us your thoughts there, and also Genius levels 2 and 3 you could talk a bit about. So anything here that you think is meaningful would be interesting for us to learn about. Thank you.

JV: Yeah. The Connected Trip, in my mind, is kind of twofold in terms of the benefits or the potential benefits that it brings to Booking.com. 1 is it allows them to capture travelers who are looking at every kind of trip. There are lots of trips that don't include an accommodation. For example, you're flying home to see your family, you know you need a

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

flight and a rental car because you're staying with friends, whatever it might be. Arguably, they were missing out on a lot of that when they were just doing accommodations. So they've added flights and cars recently in the last 5 to 10 years. Those have been good growth drivers and 1 of the keys for them in terms of growth is they're bringing in not only customers who don't need accommodations but they're customers that are new to Booking.com, so those have been a good driver of customer acquisition. So that's 1 thing. The other thing is, and I think this is the longer term end goal of this, is it creates or can create a much better experience for the customer. Not only can you book multiple things at once and maybe you book everything you need for your trip in 1 transaction, but it also potentially allows for a much easier customer experience when something needs to be changed or when something goes wrong. We all know stuff goes wrong in travel. I sat on the runway or in the airport plane in Denver yesterday or 2 days ago for about 4 hours. The ability for Booking.com to then manage across all elements of your trip, they know your flight's delayed, they can change your rental car pickup time, they can let the hotel know you're going to check in after midnight, creating that opportunity and providing that customer experience is very significant and could be a big driver of loyalty and retention and getting customers to come back time and again. So over the long haul, they're looking to simplify what can be a very fragmented experience now and create a much more seamless, much better customer experience. I think the Connected Trip vision in and of itself isn't just about being able to book multiple components, which Expedia has been doing for years. They've had dynamic packaging for 20 years now. And so it does allow some things on the pricing side. It does allow multiple components and to diversify your revenue streams, but it also allows you to create a much better customer experience. And I think that's the key that Booking.com is thinking about long term. How do we take a single transaction, turn it into multiple, and then provide something that's really beneficial to the traveler that then encourages them to come back time and time again?

AK: Got it. So then Jeff, with that, what do you think encourages repeat bookings? Is it price? Is it Genius? Is it rewards? Is it convenience, personalization, or something else that we should be aware of? And you said how... Booking.com could change the time of a rental car pickup if your flight's delayed. Does that really happen in real time? But anyway, I have all the different buckets that I just mentioned. What do you think will be the biggest benefits?

JV: Well, to your point, what drives retention, I think it's some element of all of those things and it does depend on the traveler. The overarching thing that I would point to is trust. Do you trust the site that you're booking with to give you the best price, to show you the best selection of inventory, to take care of you if something happens, to have your back, if you will. And so from an overall perspective, what you see with their direct numbers to me tells me that a lot of people trust their site. They trust that they're getting a good deal or they're getting the right deal for that trip. They trust that if something goes wrong, somebody will be there to support them. And whether that somebody is AI or is an actual person probably depends on the complexity of the issue that you're having.

AK: Mm-hmm.

JV: But they are trusting that Booking.com is giving them the right information, the right pricing. And Genius, I think, is an offshoot of that, right? Once you get comfortable with a site, you're more willing to launch into a loyalty program to come back and book time again and to do it directly. Exactly. And so the fact that their direct bookings are in what I would call a really solid place, so about 2/3 of their transactions are direct, their mobile numbers are up, that's into the high 50s, which is up 5 to 10 points from 2 years ago. Both of those things tell me people trust their site and they appreciate that they're getting what they ask for and they're comfortable that if something goes wrong, somebody will be there to support them.

AK: Great. I want to switch gears. Well, let me ask one other question on this. So is this something that you feel like that Airbnb, I'm sorry, that Booking.com could do a better job on the Connected Trip than, let's say, Expedia, and to a lesser degree, Airbnb, who's trying to add more touch points with the traveler vis-a-vis experiences? So is this something where if you had to identify which of the OTAs has a lead on this front, who would it be?

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

JV: Yeah, I mean, I think you'd have to say you'd have to regionalize that a little bit because one of Booking's big advantages is how strong they are globally, whereas, AK: Yep.

JV: I would probably say Expedia is the leader on this type of service or offering in the US, maybe you would say North America. But Booking has more global inventory and Airbnb is still trying to get into some of these other spaces, both in terms of verticals and geography. So I think Booking.com is best positioned for long-term success in this space and to be the leader in this space. Are they there today? Probably not yet. But the fact that it's growing faster than the market at roughly 2x tells me that they're doing some things right, that the people who are booking multiple verticals are having a good experience and therefore willing to book again with Booking.com. Expedia, I would argue, has the lead in the US because they've been doing dynamic packaging for a long time and have that experience. But I think that from a global perspective, Booking is in the best position.

AK: Okay, got it. That's global. Okay, then how about the United States? Because I think the United States is going to be a focus for them. We'll talk a bit more about that in terms of their share versus Expedia, but just in terms of the United States, what's your thoughts on that market?

JV: I think today Expedia would be... I would look at as the leader there. Like I said, they've been doing dynamic packaging, which not only is multivertical, but allows you to manage pricing and to actually in many cases get better pricing because you're hiding the individual component prices. They've been doing that for quite a while and so they've got a lead there. You know, Booking.com obviously for a long time they worked on the agency model, which doesn't really work in a dynamic packaging environment. They've moved over and now have a wholesale or a net rate model, which allows them to start working on and combining prices in the background and presenting you with kind of an overall package price. So that's a component of the Connected Trip that certainly is in the works. Once they get that, then that playing field, I think is pretty leveled. And that's where maybe the global aspect of Booking gives them an advantage because if you're a US booker, you can book the same thing on Expedia and Booking.com in the US. If you're looking at Europe, Booking.com will have more inventory, could be a better option for you. If you're looking at Asia, Booking.com will have more opportunity than Expedia as well. So that's where the globalization, I think, makes a difference. Now, obviously, the impact of that will depend on what's happening in the travel market. You know, we've seen international have a little bit of a struggle this year just overall, but intra-region and domestic has remained strong. So that probably benefits Expedia a little bit. If we see international come back, which I think we will, it's just a question of some of the other things happening in the world figuring themselves out. When that happens, then I think Booking has got the advantage.

AK: Okay, I want to switch over to a different topic that we'll be discussing and that is in connection to the B2B side of the business and I know, again, just going back to Expedia that's an area that they've been pushing as well. The company has talked about how they want to get more partnerships with banks, travel management companies, airlines, et cetera. Talk to us about the B2B opportunity for Booking.com. Is it maybe, to the degree you can talk a bit about profitability and how that compares maybe with the B2C business, and are they behind in terms of establishing partnerships with other business providers? How in terms of generating incremental demand? So maybe give us a little sense there. I know that Glenn, you know, was very bullish on that opportunity. It's a big business, he basically wants to make it bigger. So the question here is, you know, the how and the why.

JV: Yeah, I think Expedia is certainly the global leader in the B2B space in travel, and there's a few reasons for that. First is just, you know, they've always had all the product offerings, right? So if Citibank or Chase came up for bid 5 years ago, Expedia could say, we have flights, we have cars, we have packages, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. Booking couldn't do that until, you know, the last 5 years or so. And even now with flights, they're not quite to where Expedia is. So that was 1, just the breadth of the product offering. 2 is Expedia has spent a lot of time and effort redoing their technical side to make it much more B2B friendly. So the example I'll share is when I was managing B2B partnerships,

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

this is 15-ish years ago, 10-ish years ago, if a partner said to me, I only want to offer 4 and 5 star hotels, well, that would require that we download a spreadsheet, we upload it into the system, we do this every, let's say, month to make sure that the information is reasonably up to date. It was a very manual and time consuming activity. In the current world, you know, what I envision is you've got a menu of things and you say, I want 4 stars and I want 5 stars and I want pet friendly and I want beachfront, you know, whatever the specific things are that you're looking for. And then the system applies that. So from a technology perspective, Expedia has a much more user-friendly platform than what the Booking.com suite of brands have had. And that's the third piece is. And Booking Holdings has essentially had 3 different B2B offerings, and really 4 when you add Rocket in. But you had Agoda, Priceline, and Booking each had their thing. Rocket has a different offering, and then there were times when a new opportunity would come up for bid and you would have those brands bidding against each other. And each of those had strengths and each of those had gaps that when you individually went out to bid for something you might have said okay well we can do this but we can't do that thing on the air side, making something up here. What Booking is now doing, what Booking Holdings is now doing is consolidating and they're taking the best of all of those brands and putting it into 1 B2B business. And so where Expedia has kind of got all of their things in 1 platform, Booking Holdings has not had that traditionally and are now working on it. So I would argue that within the next year or 2, that playing field will become much more even from a technology perspective, which is a huge part of this. And so as those new and big opportunities come up, Booking.com or Booking Holdings, I should say, will be much more competitive in going after that business. Then I think there's Booking might even have a little bit of an advantage because, again, from a global inventory perspective, they are head and shoulders above everybody else. So if you get somebody like an American Express that says, we want to be able to give our card members the biggest amount of inventory possible, Booking Holdings will have that now. Will they have all of the other features and bells and whistles that Expedia has? Maybe. You know, my assumption is that, and if I was running it, I would be out there talking with all these guys saying, okay, what are the things that you would like your B2B platform to be able to do? What are the features and functions you'd like it to have? What's on your wish list? What are the things that it doesn't do today that you'd like it to do and then try to figure out how we build some of that? So potentially, could they leapfrog Expedia? Maybe. Expedia is obviously not going to sit still because they've had great success investing in this space. And I would argue that this is how they're trying to go more global because, you know, they've seen a lot of wins in Asia Pacific. Their brand isn't very big there. So their strategy has been, well, let's partner with big banks and other well-known companies in those regions and be the travel provider for them and in that way we generate demand and get some piece of the bookings that we wouldn't otherwise get. Now, you're right, the economics of these deals are not as good as B2C for sure. It does depend a little bit though on the particular partner and what their goals for a travel B2B partnership are. There are credit card companies out there who, and I had 1 specifically tell me, we're not in this to make money off of the travel booking. We're in this to say we have the best offering for our credit card holders of anyone out there. And therefore, it's about credit card customer acquisition and retention. And so they didn't look at, they actually wanted us to reinvest the revenue share, if you will, into things like guaranteeing an upgrade in a hotel when it's available for our card members or guaranteeing a free breakfast or giving them a free shuttle ride, sorry, a free private transfer from the airport to the hotel. So they were looking at it as, "How can I say to my card members, 'I've got a better offering than that guy over there,' because then they win because I've got a credit card customer." Not only are they booking travel with me, but they're booking everything else because I am their credit card holder or credit card supplier. So the economics do depend. I mean, in general, if you're looking at a revenue split, in my experience, it's somewhere in the 50-50, 40-60 range, but I had some that were as low as like 10%. So it was very close to the B2C business in terms of that. However, obviously there's investment on the side of Booking Holdings or Expedia. So the actual margin is going to be not quite as big as the B2C side.

AK: Okay. I guess my question to ask you is, you know, when it comes to B2B and some of the economics that you mentioned, can you maybe sort of help us think about why do certain banks or corporate travel providers... I want to say banks, I'm talking about credit card companies, airline companies... select Booking rather than Expedia or another inventory supplier? So what exactly is Expedia or Booking doing differently, or are their approaches drastically

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

different, or are they very similar even when it comes to economics?

JV: Yeah, I mean, I think today the economics have been different because the technology is so different and the product offerings are different. So, you know, I would argue that Booking.com has to probably make more concessions today because they don't have everything from a technology perspective that Expedia has. Once those things even themselves out, which like I said, I think they will in the next year or 2 as this consolidation completes at Booking Holdings, then it's really going to be back to a more level playing field economics, although. Because so many of these big providers are already with Expedia, Booking might have to do some things to get them to shift the business. I mean, in AK: Well, okay, JV: the B2B space, being the incumbent actually gives a big benefit.

AK: So coming to you is definitely a benefit. Switching costs are probably high, et cetera, et cetera. But that said, do you think that Expedia had initially charged lower commissions to its partners in order to garner that business? And maybe that will be an enduring lead coupled with the fact that you said that these companies are very sticky, or do you think that Booking could also lower their commission and perhaps gain share? And if so, why wouldn't Booking just go in there to lower commissions to match or even beat out Expedia?

JV: My expectation is that they will get creative with how they go after the business, right? So there will be things like incentives for bringing certain amounts of volume. There will be 1 very specific example: Booking now has a co- branded credit card in the US. Maybe they cut a deal with other credit card companies that say, well, we will do something special for your cardholders. Maybe they do something with the banks that are providing competitive co- branded credit cards to say we will lower our rates because of that. I think they will get creative in how they try to win the business because today they AK: Okay, but do you think... so is that going to be just lowering fees or is it just fees? Is it for lower commission? Is that what it is? Or do they have to be creative and try to find other partners given the quote-unquote stickiness? And then 1 last thing to ask, are these partnerships exclusive or non-exclusive? So, can Amex partner with both Expedia or Booking or are these exclusive arrangements just so we understand?

JV: Let me answer the second part of that first.

AK: Yeah.

JV: The arrangements are exclusive from a technology perspective, so you're using 1 party's platform. From an inventory perspective, they very often use multiple sources. So, for example, today, I know of several deals where Expedia is the technology platform, but Booking.com actually provides some inventory as well. The thinking being, okay, if I'm a large credit card company, I want all the inventory that I can get. If Expedia can give me 80%, then I look for somebody else that can give me the other 20%. I'm making up the percentages. But AK: Yep.

JV: The way the agreement works is if Expedia's got the hotel, let's say, then when I make that booking, it's going to go through Expedia's hotel platform. If they don't have it, then it goes to a second party. And that oftentimes is Booking. It could be Sabre. It could be Amadeus. It could be a bed bank. It just varies. So today, there are many scenarios where there are multiple OTAs and/or GDSs involved, but the technology is exclusive. So back to the first part of the question about how could they get creative. They also might do things like create dedicated customer service lines or create priority lines for certain types of customers. They could extend any preferred rates that they get from different suppliers to specific credit card companies. So there are other things besides just the actual economics, besides cutting commission, that they can do that would provide arguably a better customer experience and so AK: Okay,

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

JV: Again AK: So Jeff, JV: Yeah AK: So with that, in terms of the pole position and trying to figure out where Booking could perhaps gain share from Expedia on the B2B front, if you're saying that the tech stack is exclusive, which kind of makes sense since you probably would just want to operate on one tech stack, but the inventories come elsewhere, is it possible for Booking to win, even if it may not have, quote unquote, the exclusive tech partnership, let's say an Amex for argument's sake or Chase for argument's sake, and they could still try to supply inventory to Chase and Amex in this illustration? Or is it kind of tough and it's really essential? If you're going to win and be in the pole position you need to have that tech relationship as you referred in terms of really garnering the most traffic and the best economics JV: Yeah.

AK: Is it kind of toughness really essential? Like, if you're going to win and be in the pole position, you need to have that tech relationship as you refer in terms of really garnering the most traffic and the best economics.

JV: Yeah, I think you really need to be in that pole position for 2 reasons. 1 is they will pay you something just for that service, right? And 2 is you're going to get the vast majority of the transactions coming through your platform. And that benefits you also in your discussions and your negotiations with your supply partners because if you're generating 500,000 room nights for a hotel through your B2C platform, maybe you're generating another 1 million through your B2B platforms, so you can say to them, okay, because I'm generating this much business, this is what I want to do in terms of economics. 3x is a significant difference and you, the OTAs, will use all of the transactions that come through their platform both B2C and B2B when they're talking about how much business am I bringing you to Mr. Hotel or Mr. Airline.

AK: Okay, got it. So that is part of the strategy of perhaps getting more B2B business. I believe that Booking.com is looking to consolidate some of its sub-brands, Booking brand, Agoda, Priceline, and look to the B2B business as well.

JV: Mm-hmm.

AK: You know, they think that consolidation could improve the product, reduce duplication. But do you think... and I think Glenn Fogel said... at a recent conference, often saying having 2 teams calling the same potential client is redundant, doesn't really work that way. He says it's easy to some extent to grow B2B very fast, but this is the question... cannibalizing your existing B2C business where the economics are much higher could be disadvantaged, and I know you referenced before that B2C is a higher margin business. So how do you thread that needle? How do we think about this combination or consolidating the business? I think it goes live in Jan 1 with a unified tech stack, et cetera. And what does that mean to the B2B business? What kind of leakage might happen as a result? And I think that even Expedia at some point also tried to consolidate some of their brands as well. And I know you work for a bunch of them, Orbitz, Travelocity, et cetera. So go ahead.

JV: Yeah, and that's kind of always been the challenge in the B2B space. You know, I think my perspective on it is there's kind of 2 approaches to take. One is, how can you do the best job possible at your own site, your B2C site, so that you can continue to get as much direct traffic as possible? Booking is obviously very focused on that, and that's a hedge against cannibalizing your direct business or your B2C through B2B partnerships. At the same time, you have to recognize that there is a huge amount of travel that's booked through credit card companies, through banks, etc. So your choice is you can either participate and get something for those, or you cannot participate and give all that to somebody else. The economics of it, at the end of the day, it has such a big impact on the supplier side. If you've got a big B2B business, it's not still as lucrative as B2C, but it is absolutely worth doing because you can have better discussions, better terms with your supply partners. Now, how do you measure that? That's hard. And, back in the day, we looked at things like, OK, we were partnering or we were powering a credit card company. Well, what percentage

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

of our bookings direct were on that type of credit card and how did that change when we started powering their other business? In many cases it didn't change a lot and that's because the focus was how do we keep the folks that are already booking with us coming back. And so that's the Genius program for example for Booking, or the loyalty program that Expedia's got. Co-branded credit card is a big part of that, trying to keep people on their site. The challenge with that is to win these deals, you might have to offer some of the things like your Genius rates to top tier credit card company members, in which case the incentive for them to book direct has shifted. So a lot of it is just managing and looking at kind of the actual performance and what kind of shifts you have. So there's a ton of data back there. I'm sure Booking.com and Booking is very, very data driven. I'm sure they've got a ton of data about every one of these partnerships or potential partnerships. And so if they see that, let's just make something up, if Citibank is a huge percentage of their direct B2C business, maybe they don't go chase that business because they don't think it's worth it.

AK: Well, that was my question. So how can Booking measure whether or not the B2B bookings are incremental rather than diverting from their B2C channels such as Booking.com, Agoda, or Priceline?

JV: Yeah, well, they'll look at all this data beforehand and they will have a lot of data from it. So the B2B businesses tend to be, in my experience, 3 to 5 year contracts. There's potential for an auto renew for a year or 2 in there. But when those come up, as part of the bid, you know, Citibank will say, "We expect to drive X million bookings a year. They've distributed in this way. The regions look like this." And Booking will look at that and they'll compare it to their own data and the information they've got internally and say, "Okay, so if we lose 1 million direct Citibank bookings, but we gain 10 million... making up numbers, of course... and we gain 10 million at 50% of the margin or 30% of the margin, do the numbers work? Yeah, they work. Okay, so fine. Let's go after this." Their expectation is the efforts on the other side to continue to retain the direct bookers will have some benefit and they won't lose as much as they model out. They'll model out the kind of worst-case scenario, and the expectation is that their efforts to retain direct business will make that a worst-case scenario that doesn't happen. But they will look at all of those things and try to figure out, does this make sense for us as a business or not? Also overlaying the fact that, okay, if we don't get it, Expedia very well might. What does that do from a competitive perspective? And so there's regional strategic things as well. So, you know, Expedia going into Europe, which is obviously Booking.com's biggest region, that's something that Booking might take a different strategy towards protecting their home turf, if you will. Versus both going into, let's say, New Zealand for something where it's more of an open playing field. So there's other different strategies that will come into play here as well, but Booking will take a very data-driven look at all of these different potential deals and then try to figure out, how do we mitigate any loss to the B2C side?

AK: Okay, got it. So then with that, and then we'll move on to a different topic, but just wanted to put a final point here. A few things. How do you ensure that partner rates don't leak into consumer channels and undercut Booking's own offering?

JV: Yeah, I got a question I asked you. Yeah, go ahead. If you could say that. Go ahead.

AK: I just had a follow-up question. It's an age-old question.

JV: You know, it's something that all the OTAs monitor. There are some sites that can do it better than others. You know, you've got things written into your agreements that say you can distribute these out to your distribution partners, but there are things that are written into the agreements that limit what can and can't be done. So, for example, you can't have a partner unbundle a package rate. So if you're Expedia and you've got a rate they're giving you that only can go into a dynamic package or a bundle, your partners aren't allowed to unbundle those. Does it happen? Unfortunately, yes, it does. Oftentimes, if that's called out, the OTA will either stop sending those rates to that partner or they will in some cases actually stop working with that partner entirely if there's enough instances of that. So it's really there is some technology that can be done to limit that, but then it's really up to the OTA to kind of

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

manage that because it is a risk, no question.

AK: Again, another thing too, just in terms of the benefits that we should be seeing here, are we going to see a more unified sales team? We'll see broader and more inventory, better pricing, shared technology, lower operating costs. So then when they flip the switch on, what are some of the early signs that we should be seeing?

JV: Yeah, I mean, I certainly think there will be... the first thing I would look at is what's the offering? What does the tech platform look like? What's all included in there from a product and a feature set? Because, again, my assumption is they're taking the best of all of those brands and putting them into one. So that'd be first. I certainly think we should see more efficiency, a better sales approach. Because you won't have brands competing with each other, they'll be going in with kind of 1 solution that everybody can support. So that would be another. And then I would be watching to see, and we'll have to see what we learn about this and what they share publicly, but I would be watching to see what they're doing from an approach perspective to try and win some of this business. Are they offering really... really low commissioned rates for some period of time? Are they creating really large incentives to drive business to them? So maybe the initial commissions would be the same, but if you reach a certain threshold, it dramatically changes. What are they doing to win some of these big businesses? Because I think that's where their focus will be. You know, the Citibanks and the Chases and the American Airlines and folks like that. How is, what approach are they taking to win that business? So that's something that I'll be really paying attention to.

AK: Okay. So bottom line with Glenn, I want to make this bigger. Do you think he'll be successful here? Like is this something?

JV: I do. The individual offerings have always been solid. They just haven't been as all-inclusive as they, in my opinion, should have been or needed to be. And so my expectation is by putting all those things together into 1 platform, they will have a very competitive offering and they will win a lot of big businesses.

AK: Okay. And then, you know, just in terms of the relative underperformance versus Expedia in 2026, would you attribute that to their B2B business not being as strong, or would you factor in, you know, one-off events such as their booking being more internationally focused, or the Middle East conflict, obviously most pronounced, and then conversely Expedia getting traction over the summertime with the World Cup.

JV: Yeah, I mean, I think there's a number of nuances there. B2B certainly is one of them. Expedia has seen B2B grow 20% plus the last couple of years. And that's significant because it wasn't a small base to start with. Arguably that's a business that Booking is not competing against them in. 2 is, Booking has historically been more dependent on international travel, and we know international travel is flat, more or less. And so domestic and interregional is where the growth has been. In the US, obviously that dramatically favors Expedia because they're still by far the biggest brand in the US and the most well-known from a Booker perspective. I do think that they got some tailwinds out of a World Cup. I mean, I think Airbnb didn't get what they expected. I think Expedia got more than maybe what they expected. So I think I would attribute it to those 2 things initially. But I would also say that Booking has actually seen pretty decent growth in the US as they made it a focus market. They're still certainly behind in the US on the alternative accommodation side.

AK: Well, yeah, that's my next question. That's my next question. So go ahead. Let's talk about the alternative accommodation.

JV: But let's segue right AK: Yeah, let's JV: into it.

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

AK: go to, yeah, JV: Yeah.

AK: yeah, let's go, yeah, do it.

JV: Yeah. I think that the biggest challenge in the alternative accommodation space for Booking.com is getting all of the inventory that certainly Airbnb has. But even catching up to Expedia there and the challenge that Booking.com has is in the individual or kind of the non-professional host space. So you think about the big providers of vacation rentals, the Evolves and the Vacasas, they work with all of the big OTAs, you know, Airbnb, Expedia and Booking. The individual hosts who are doing this on the side or they've got a beach house that they rent out when they're not using it. Those folks have been harder for Booking.com to sign up. The challenge there is most of those guys A, are doing this as a side business, B, are getting a lot of business from Airbnb or Airbnb plus Expedia. Those are the brands they started with. Those are the ones they know. And so therefore, if they're getting 90% of what they hoped for, there's not a lot of incentive for them to go add on another distribution channel, especially if they're managing it themselves and this is another piece where you know Airbnb's platform was designed for hosts so it's easier for them to sign up, it's easier for them to manage their rates, their inventory, their availability. Booking.com's platform was designed for hotels and that's different than what an individual host needs. So Booking has made a lot of investment and is continuing to invest in how do we make our platform easier for all alternative accommodation providers to participate in and to use, but it's not to the level of Expedia or... sorry, Airbnb or Vrbo. So AK: Well, let me ask you a question. Is some of that a branding issue? Before we were talking about consolidating brands, but maybe in terms of top of mind, Vrbo has that top of funnel effect. Obviously, Airbnb is almost a verb and also has top of funnel, whereas Booking.com, you may not think of alternative accommodation to Booking.com and maybe they need a brand. I know that Expedia bought HomeAway and merged it with Vrbo as well, but maybe there is a separate brand that may be more conducive, because I know on the one hand, Airbnb is trying to get to the hotel space. On the other hand, Booking.com is already in the hotel space, but maybe now it's pronounced from a messaging and marketing perspective on the alternative accommodations. So do you think this is a branding issue, let alone an inventory issue, but nevertheless a branding issue, customers knowing go to Booking for alternative accommodations? Go ahead.

JV: Yeah. I mean, I think in the US, you're absolutely correct. You know, Airbnb is synonymous. I mean, how many people say I stayed at an Airbnb regardless of where they booked it? So in the US, no question. There is definitely an awareness piece on the traveler side, on the booker side. And so from a supply side, if you're getting all of the business you need from 1 brand or 2 brands, then why go to a third? The thing that people don't realize is globally. Globally, Booking.com has more alternative accommodation suppliers than Airbnb or Vrbo, but that's because they're much more global. You know, over a third of Booking.com's room nights are all alternative accommodations. So when you look at the numbers. It's a huge number of room nights. It's just that in the US market, they are a distant third and still trying to play catch up. In Europe, they're much bigger. In Asia-Pac, they're actually bigger. I mean, and you're seeing Airbnb, you know, make... identify focused countries, France and Italy and Brazil and Australia and Japan where they're trying to grow their business, but they're not to the level of where Booking.com is globally.

AK: Okay.

JV: Oh, boy.

AK: Yep. So, I mean, this question may be more geared towards a host or manager of vacation rental properties, but, you know, Booking did a terrific job in the US or in Europe, you know, especially going after the fragmented, you know, boutique independently owned hotels. But it's not clear that could be repeated here in the United States from alternative accommodations. So do you think that they need a sales force here? Do you think they're going to win on price by offering lower take rates? Anything here from a strategic perspective that they can do in order to ramp up

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

more quickly on the alternative accommodations front?

JV: I think the investment that they're making on the platform side, the extranet side, is a big piece of it because you've got to make it easy for these guys to work with you. So I think that's the first one. They are trying to meet the individual hosts where they are. For professional hosts, they've got essentially everything everybody else has. It's the individual host where there's a significant gap. And so, from a Salesforce perspective, they're trying to figure out how do we get to these people. They've got a referral program, they're going to local short-term rental alternative accommodation events to try and meet with these folks. They're trying to work through the technology providers that some of the individual hosts work with, revenue management systems and channel managers. So they're doing all the right things. I think for me, the difference is they need to continue to grow their brand awareness as a place to make those bookings so that they can continue to try to cut into Airbnb and Expedia's share so that I as a host go, oh, well, you know what? I actually need this third one because as many people are shopping for short-term rentals on Booking.com as are on Expedia. And until that happens, I think you're always going to get the individual host going, "Well, if you're not as easy to work with and I don't need your business yet, then I'm probably not going to sign up with you." And I think that's the challenge is they've got to both make it easy and then they've got to bring the demand. And that's the piece that I think they're investing heavily in the US from a demand perspective and brand awareness marketing. You see them on the Super Bowl and blah, blah, blah. And I think that's all having an impact. Their brand awareness in the US is significantly better than it was 5 years ago, but they're still not to the point where Airbnb is, or Vrbo for alternative AK: Yeah, JV: accommodations.

AK: No doubt. No doubt. Okay. And also, do you think they should be focusing on whole homes, or do you think they should be focusing on, you know, units in apartments, apartment or condos, wherever it may be, I suppose like resort- based properties?

JV: Well, I think they should go after both of those. I think the space that they probably don't need to dive into is the shared space, which is a big part of Airbnb's inventory but has become less and less of their transactions.

AK: Got it. Okay. So we'll be looking for that. So you do think alternative accommodations was a drag or has been a drag in terms of the relative performance between Expedia and Booking?

JV: Yeah, yeah. I mean, certainly in the US, there's still a distant third and they've got to, I think they just have to continue to grind. That's a word I know Glenn likes, but they've got to continue to try and grind out that inventory and increase their brand awareness.

AK: Yeah, that's what they said. Yeah, that makes sense. And that's sort of consistent with what they said. Do you have any idea how long you think it'll take to see proof points of success on that initiative?

JV: Well, I mean, I think we're seeing it little by little. You know, their brand awareness numbers have gotten significantly better. Their domestic bookings in the US have gotten significantly better. And so I think with that, we should see some improvement in the alternative accommodation space. I mean, you couple that with.

AK: What I'll call the diversification of focus at Airbnb, which I'm very curious to see what that means for the short-term rental space. As they dive deeper into hotels, as they add experiences and services, if they do flights, they've now got a car partnership. What does that mean for the alternative accommodation space for them? And can Booking take some advantage of that?

JV: Yep. I think specifically the company said that the alternative accommodations room nights grew 4% in 2Q26,

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

represented around 37% of its room nights, and I think it also said that its overall US room nights grew at high single digits. But I guess they didn't really talk about... the management explained the US growth contributed to the mix difference because its alternative accommodations offering there is relatively small. So I think maybe that's a little bit contrary to what you said. I think they're saying that their mix in alternative accommodations is relatively small, but perhaps that's the nice opportunity. But I just want to double check that with you.

AK: Yeah, no, I definitely think it's an opportunity. It's just going to be... it's... you've got 2 very strong competitors in the space. And so you've got to continue to think about, you know, how can we differentiate, and I think right now they're just... they're still behind, if I'm being honest.

JV: Okay, got it. Yeah, I guess... And just 1 thing, just in terms of being behind, because there was no secret that Vrbo and HomeAway were working under Expedia and then had Airbnb. Any reason why you thought that they perhaps didn't focus intently on the alternative accommodation sector?

AK: You mean specifically in the US?

JV: Yeah.

AK: Yeah, I mean, I think that for a long time they were very focused on kind of going global and doing things that were globally relevant. And over the past, let's say, 5 years, I think they've realized that there's a lot more localization they have to do to be relevant in key markets. And I think, you know, you see them talk about product enhancements that they're making in some markets, whether that's local payment methods or the extranet.

JV: So I think that they've gotten better at thinking locally and actually making investment locally. But I think for a long time that wasn't their focus. Their focus was how do we do things, you know, how do we roll something out globally and something that works in Europe may not work in the US or in Australia. And so I think that the mindset shift where they're doing more localization. And I would argue AI is allowing them to do more of this in a faster time frame. I think that is kind of the key next step there. But I think it was before they were focused on kind of the overall platform and everything, and over the past 5 years they've gotten much more specific about, okay, these are things we need to do for the US, these are the things we need to do to win in Australia or Japan or wherever the other focus markets are.

AK: Okay, good. Let's talk about agentic AI, and this could be an hour-long topic in and of itself, JV: Easily.

AK: But I just want to get your viewpoints here on agentic AI and where you think the biggest risks are. The real risks are... I mean, we could all kind of extrapolate as to full disintermediation or the partners can go directly to Mews and just book directly via Mews and basically a Booking or Expedia gets X'd out of the whole entire equation. There could be other factors too where the top of the funnel is no longer Expedia or Booking.com, but it's Mews. But different scenarios, but I'd love to know your thoughts as to how this could play out and how well-positioned Booking.com is for it right now. They said it's still relatively low, about 1% of their room nights coming from any kind of agentic AI, but nevertheless, I guess we could all expect it to grow. So I'd love to know your thoughts in terms of how Booking.com is positioned, how we could either accommodate it or fight it or whatever.

JV: Yeah. I think, I mean, first of all, it's very early. So I think, you know, we're speculating on a lot of things here. My own perspective is certainly the top of the funnel will change and we'll get to some new equilibrium. Where there's some search, there's some, you know, a lot of social, there's some AI generated demand and where that demand goes, whether it's booked through an OTA or direct to a supplier or through some other booking platform, I think that will have to sort itself out as well and economics will have a part of that. The reason that I'm kind of bullish on the OTA space, at least for the next, let's say 3 to 5 years, is a couple of things. One, the complexity of the actual transaction,

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

working with the suppliers, taking payments and different types of payment methods of which there are hundreds globally, and Expedia and Booking, neither one of them have them all at this point but they're constantly adding more and then just having the right to sell in like a hotel's inventory. All of those things are stuff that's taken years for the OTAs to figure out and to do well. And so can AI do it? Absolutely. I think over time, but can they do it tomorrow and do it well? Probably not. The other piece is kind of that whole customer experience.

AK: Wait... but hold on, but you said probably not. Why not?

JV: Well, A, if you're an AI platform, if you're whomever and you want to do a booking, you have to have an agreement with the hotel to sell their stuff first and foremost. Then you have to be connected to whatever their technology system is so that you can debit their inventory appropriately. The first time that you book through Mews, let's say, and you show up at a hotel and they go, well, we don't have your booking or that room is double booked or whatever. That's the last time you book through Mews. And so from a supplier perspective, there's a lot of things that need to be connected to ensure that that transaction works appropriately. And even the OTAs don't get this 100% perfect. I mean, probably we have all showed up at a hotel for them to go, "Oh, we don't have your booking," right?

AK: Okay, fine, but let's be honest. But let's be a little more forward-thinking and why can't an ambitious, or at least like the big hotel chains like a Marriott or Hilton or IHG look to put their inventory via API or MCP to Mews and just let Mews access the inventory and then, you know, it could shift over to brand.com and those 3 brands have all the capabilities to transact.

JV: Well, they certainly can and they already are. But the thing you got to remember is that not all shoppers are going to go, oh, well, I just want to look at Marriott. I mean, the OTAs, the benefit that the OTAs have AK: It's JV: is AK: the meta, JV: yeah, AK: yeah.

JV: It's the choice, it's the options. I mean, if you're looking for a beachfront hotel in Miami, there's probably 100 different hotel sites you could go to. I don't know if that's right, but close.

AK: Yep.

JV: If you do it on an OTA site, you can see them all at once. And then if the OTA sites do it well and are able to personalize that through like a natural language search and you say, I want a beachfront hotel with a swim-up pool bar and a rooftop deck, and I want to be, you know, it's family-friendly. I need 2 connecting rooms. So that's going to narrow your search a lot. And if the OTAs are smart, they can show you 10 or 20 or 50 options that meet those exact criteria and you don't have to go to multiple sites. Can an AI platform eventually do that? Sure. But we all thought Google was going to do this too with Google AK: Yes, JV: search, right?

AK: We did. And we did 100%.

JV: Yep.

AK: So, JV: And we

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

AK: Yeah, JV: all saw how that worked out.

AK: Yeah. But I mean, so with that, you know, I don't want to get too deep down this road, but the point you just made is a bigger risk for Google in terms of Google being disintermediated from a CPC performance-based marketing approach where, you know, perhaps, the top of the funnel is no longer Google for your trip. It's Mews.

JV: I mean, I certainly think there is risk there, but I think obviously, you know, Google through Gemini is doing the same thing, right? So they're trying to invest in that same space.

AK: Yep.

JV: You know, the other thing that we don't know at this point is it's taken years for the travel companies, both the suppliers and the OTAs, to figure out what's the value of the traffic that comes to me from, let's say, Google Search, for example. And what they look at is not just did I get a booking out of it, but what's the lifetime value of the customer that was brought to me by that transaction? And we don't know that with AI yet. I mean, you're right, it's less than 1% of room nights at this point. But even at that, the average person travels 2 to 5 times a year. So it's going to take a few years to even just have enough data to go, "Oh, well, these guys are more or less valuable than customers that I'm getting some other way, whether that's through social or traditional search or whatever." The economics on that side, we still don't know. And we still don't know, are they converting better? Well, that's initially what we're hearing. But are they converting better one time, or are they becoming Genius members? Are they coming back multiple times, or is the AI traveler, the AI searcher, if you will, kind of the wide open to any option playing field type customer who's like, "Okay, this time I'm booking with Expedia, next time I'm booking with Hotel Direct, next time I'm booking with Booking.com, next time I'm on hotelreservations.com." You know, there's thousands of sites out there where you can book. Where will they end up? And is this bringing the same value to the OTAs as it does to the other search methods? And that's just, we don't know that yet.

AK: Okay, so just to be clear here, you're saying that you don't think the AI agents could basically reliably handle payments? Refunds, service failures, etc. That's basically the issue that you think JV: Yeah.

AK: is going to be the biggest. Okay, okay.

JV: Yeah, it comes back to trust.

AK: It's okay, all trust. Okay. So, with that, explain how you think Booking will interface with AI Agents. I think Expedia announced in September that they have a program already in place with Mews. But this explains, like, is this something that's going to be beneficial on that basis to both Booking and Expedia because perhaps they'll get even more traffic, perhaps conversion will be higher because maybe intent is even better if you're going through the whole Mews process? And then number 3, perhaps the traffic is so robust that CPC may not be as necessary.

JV: I think all of those things are potential outcomes. The third one, where CPC may not be as necessary, I definitely think that's an opportunity. I actually think meta sites are very much at risk overall, and there's a fair amount of traffic that used to come through meta to the OTAs. But if the traditional CPC model changes, then the question is, are you paying the same amount to the AI models to get that traffic? Again, we don't know what those economics are going to look like yet because, at this point, the AI sites are just bleeding money. So I think that potentially the OTAs can benefit from the AI platforms: more traffic, better intent, potentially better economics. Again, I think we have to wait and see on that. But I think that the overarching trust factor is the key one. We're already hearing complaints from customers who show up at a hotel and the room type doesn't exist that they saw online because of AI superimposed

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

something on it. There's... A hotel in Sedona that had customers showing up and writing bad reviews because it didn't have a view of a pond. They don't have a pond. That was something that was generated by AI. So there's still a lot of questions around the trust factor initially. I read something that said 90% of the AI platforms are getting their travel information from Reddit. I'm not sure I would go with that as the most trusted of sources for travel-specific information. So until that element gets cleaned up, that whole trust factor, I think the OTAs are in a decent spot. Again, I'll go back to Google. We all thought they were going to disintermediate the OTAs and obviously that didn't happen. I think that the complexity of the fulfillment, the importance of the trust factor, and remember that for some travel, if you're just traveling for business and you need a hotel a block from, or close to your office for 1 night, that's probably something you would let AI do and not worry too much about it. If it's your 2-week family vacation to Australia, you probably have a lot more invested in that and you're going to want to make those decisions on your own. So I think there's going to be a balancing there. I think over time, AI will have more impact there. But I think in the short term, I'm bullish on the OTAs maintaining a very strong position.

AK: Got it. But does that mean that they will have to improve their agentic AI capabilities? Like I think, Expedia brought Layla, which is a conversational AI agent. Is this something that they could still win and I'll think of going to Booking.com or Expedia for my travel? Or do you think that it just becomes... I really don't care where I get it from as long as my Mews agent is effective in getting me the trip or the itinerary that I want at a price point that I want at a hotel chain scale that I want and you know how they get it I'm indifferent unless JV: Yeah, AK: I mean, yeah.

JV: I'm...

AK: unless loyalty plays a role here go ahead JV: Yeah, well, it will be some of both because, I mean, there's already travelers who, you know, some are very loyal and always will stay at a Marriott and say they probably just go to the Marriott site. Will those folks go through an AI platform and say, you know, include Marriott in like a natural language search? Perhaps. And maybe they'll do it a few times and realize they're getting the same thing that they could get on the Marriott site. You know, having said that, I think, sorry.

AK: No, JV: I AK: go ahead.

JV: know what I was going to say.

AK: Yeah, JV: Yeah.

AK: go ahead.

JV: Yeah, the OTAs are investing in their own AI capabilities, right? So Expedia bought a company. Booking.com has said they're working with basically every AI platform out there and they're trying and testing and 1 AI platform may help them more with customer service. Another 1 may help them more with demand. Another 1 may help them with, you know, in-app natural language search. So they're absolutely investing in that, and I think they have to because I think that's what people will expect. And people already expect to some extent. So, you know, they're using that as a way to keep those direct numbers strong. You know, if they can, if Booking and Expedia can continue to drive roughly 2/3 of their transactions through direct bookers, then even as their businesses grow, they're doing something right and they're doing the things that travelers expect. And I certainly think that AI as part of their platform, whether it's

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

their website or their app, is something that travelers do expect now.

AK: Okay, great. Very helpful. I appreciate your insight here. We'll see how things develop, especially with Booking.com, taking more of the initiatives on B2B, you know, also consolidating some of their brands as well, and obviously the whole agentic AI debate.

JV: Yep.

AK: So thank you so much for a great weekend, and I'm sure we'll be following up after the company's report earnings. So thank you so much. Appreciate it.

JV: Thank you.

AK: Take care. Bye.

DISCLAIMER: The statements or opinions expressed today are those of the Advisor and not Guidepoint, who disclaims all liability for the content provided. The Advisor may not disclose material nonpublic or confidential information or any information that would cause the Advisor to breach any duty or obligations. Guidepoint is not a registered investment advisor and the information provided is not intended to constitute investment advice.

10/11/2026 at 11:32 AM UTC