2026.10.09 | GP | Consumer | EU Running Footwear Channel Check 3Q26

Primary:

ADS:GR

AS

ONON

PUM:GR

NKE

Associated:

DECK

7936:JP

New Balance, Inc.

SKX

Viewpoint:

C-Suite

Moderator: Mayank Upadhyay (MU)

Guillaume Mathieu (GM), Chief Brand Officer - 11teamsports Group

SUMMARY

Overview

A senior executive at a premium, digitally focused European sports retailer discussed third-quarter 2026 running-footwear trends across more than 23 markets. Performance running sales fell well below expectations as demand normalized after the pandemic-era expansion, inventories rose across the market, and promotions intensified.

Nike and Adidas lost momentum in premium specialty channels, while ASICS, Salomon, Puma, and Altra gained traction. Inventory levels at the retailer remain healthy following order cancellations, supplier returns, and heavier discounting.

Key Insights

Running footwear declined for the first time in the retailer’s tracking, despite an expected high-single-digit increase. Consumers increasingly prioritize meaningful product innovation over brand loyalty. Marketwide excess inventory has increased discounting and pressured profitability. ASICS was the strongest major partner, led by premium road-running models. Adidas growth in broader channels was viewed as heavily distribution- and promotion-led rather than innovation-led, raising concerns about sustainability. Hoka demand remains strong, but European logistics constraints materially limited sales. The expert expects growth to recover through faster inventory reallocation toward innovative, smaller brands. Premium pricing remains accepted by consumers, although the expert believes some products are priced above their underlying value.

Competitive Landscape

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Brand

Positioning and recent performance

Outlook

Nike

ASICS

Adidas

On

Hoka

Puma

Salomon

Altra and Brooks

Remains the largest brand, but share declined sharply. Racing and several recent launches underperformed.

Moderate growth expected from a racing reset; distribution and supply remain risks.

Gained substantial share through strong premium models and increased purchasing.

Expected to remain a leading growth partner with several planned innovations.

Share improved slightly, but sales were promotion- heavy. Recent premium launches disappointed.

Purchases are expected to decline as the pipeline lacks sufficient strength.

LightSpray and Cloudmonster are promising, while several other franchises have weak consumer traction.

Double-digit growth expected from scaling innovation.

Strong consumer demand but constrained by logistics and availability.

Significant upside if operations normalize.

Small base, differentiated distribution, and credible Nitro innovation.

Business could triple, though running- brand equity remains limited.

Trail and gravel are performing better than road running.

Strong growth expected from a small base.

Small brands with strong expansion potential.

Retailer plans substantially higher investment.

Quantitative Insights

Metric

Third-quarter sales growth

Unit growth

Discount rate

Gross margin

Inventory volume

Inventory under six months old

Footwear mix

Fourth-quarter sales outlook

2027 revenue outlook

2027 unit outlook

2027 gross-margin outlook

Brand share shifts

Result or expectation

Down 7.7% versus planned growth of 8%

Down 9.3%

22%, up 2.3 percentage points

37.17%, down 1.5 percentage points

Down 8%

83.6%

91%

Up 7%

Up 8.2%

Up 7.6%

Up 0.6 percentage points

Nike 32.2% to 24.1%; ASICS 14.5% to 21.7%; Hoka 6.5% to 4.4%

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

MU: Good morning, everybody. Thanks for listening to today's call. My name is Mayank Upadhyay and I'm an analyst here at Guidepoint Insights. Today's topic of discussion is EU running footwear channel check. Chief brand officer at a major retailer on 3Q26 sales trends, brand performance, inventory health and order book development. We have with us today Guillaume Mathieu to share his opinions and observations on the topic. Guillaume, it's a pleasure to have you with us. It would be great if you could briefly describe your professional background for our audience and then we can start the Q&A. Over to you.

GM: Yes, thank you and good morning, Mayank. Guillaume Mathieu, Chief Brand Officer at the 11teamsports Group, gathering running, football, basketball, indoor and lifestyle categories. It's a performance specialty premium digital- led retailer across 23 plus countries in Europe. I've been in that position for more than 3 years and I'm total gathering about 23 years of experience in the sport industry, most of them in brands with 12 years at Nike, 3 years in Salomon and in some other companies around product, marketing, business unit management and merchandising.

MU: Great. Let's directly jump into the quarter. So how much did performance running footwear grow for you year over year in 3Q26 and how did that growth compare with your expectations while entering the quarter?

GM: Okay, so surprisingly running declined 7.7% on the Q3 this year. It's the first time we're monitoring a decline of running. We could really already see some slowdown, some consolidation of the marketplace, marketplace becoming over-inventoried and more transactional. And now it's really translating into numbers. So July to September minus 0.7% and the gross margin versus last year was also in decline minus 1.5%.

MU: Got it. What growth had you built when you entered the quarter? So how did this decline compare to your expectations?

GM: Yes, indeed. So we were planning to grow plus 8% in the Q3 as we were already comping a strong quarter from last year with some key franchises launches. So well below our expectations.

MU: Any particular reason you can pinpoint why this happened? Because at least in the third quarter we had some sporting, I mean we had the World Cup, etc. So any particular reason you can think of why running declined?

GM: So, yes, indeed, we had some big sports moments, but they were not so directly connected to running. I would say 2 big reasons. The first one is macro. And as I've said, we are getting into this post-COVID zone where the number of new runners are not that big. So we had a post-COVID boom when it comes to running, lots of new runners getting equipped. I think now that's stabilizing. Either they continue, but some of them also drop or move towards other sports or other exercises such as the HYROX in training. So that's one trend. The consumer fuel is not as strong as what it used to be generating stabilization. And when it comes to the inventory situation in the market, last year, because they've been quite dynamic, everybody has taken the habit to buy/over-buy and you can really see the situation of over-inventory market really dragging down the margin, the food price mindset on top of a lower demand. So that's a microeconomic and the other key factors from my point of view is the fact that in our business model, we had 2 strong brands, Nike and Adidas. Last year, they were on 32 + 16, almost half of our business, just those 2 brands, and they've really lost velocities. Nike on the racing segment, on the over-distribution of Vomero, Vomero Plus and Premium, Adidas, not a strong launch with the Adios Pro 5, excuse me, plus the spring launches. Those 2 big partners and brands have really lost velocity, which is partially compensated by ASICS, but not fully, so that's also the 2nd big reason why.

MU: Got it. And within this decline of 7.7%, how did price, volume and product mix contribute?

GM: So the product mix remained very stable on our side. We're still very heavy on footwear with 91% of our total.

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

MU: Sorry, what I meant was this -7.7% performance for the third quarter. How would you break into volume growth, price growth and mix performance?

GM: Oh, by price point, you mean?

MU: No, no. By pricing, by unit growth. How do you decompose this 7.7% into unit growth and pricing?

GM: So in unit growth, we lost even more. We lost 9.3% in unit growth versus value growth. So the ASP went down, which is a translation of a more transactional market heavier on discount. That's for the high-level view. And if you want, I can give you a breakdown by price tiering.

MU: Maybe before that, when you said, you know, volume declined even more than the turnover. So you received some support from the product mix or from the pricing. Could you maybe talk about that? From the fact that we had to move into a more transactional area, is that what you mean? Because we basically...

GM: Yes.

MU: So did the... Actually, let's, I think, talk about higher growth by price tiers, performance by price tiers. Maybe that will help understand this better. So could you talk about the performance in third quarter across price tiers?

GM: Yes, I think that will definitely help you understand. So where we've decreased the most is the range €140 to €160 with -14% versus last year, really driven by Nike and Adidas, the Vomero, the Adi Evo SL. The €160 to €100 price point got -11%. On the €180 to €220, we got +4%, and that's really also the translation of all the premium road ASICS models working very well, and those models tend to be on the €200 plus scope. So that's really translating the dynamism of the brands. And on the €220 plus, which is not so strong in terms of share of business, we got a -7% driven by poor results of AlphaFly from Nike.

MU: Got it. So essentially your sales shifted a bit towards the higher price product during this quarter.

GM: Yes, in share of business, yes, absolutely. We don't sell significant business below €140. So as you can see, we're pretty premium. But yes, we saw this shift.

MU: Got it. And can you maybe talk about the share movement by brands? Which brands gained sales share for you? Which ones lost out?

GM: Yes, absolutely. So our number one brand remains Nike, but with much less dominance than last year. Last year they were at 32.2% and this year the share of brands is 24.1%. ASICS really gained a lot; they moved from 14.5% to 21.7%. Adidas actually gained a little bit of share, 1 point from 15.8% to 16.8%, but that's very heavy on transactional. And on running also gained from 8% to 8.6%. Salomon doubled from 2.6% to 4.7%. So here we're really getting into a small zone. Puma also increased 20% from 2.1% to 2.7%. And Hoka went down actually from 6.5% to 4.4%. But the Hoka results are really driven by their shift in logistics in the European area, and that's really dragging down all the potential business because this should be a much stronger revenue driver, this brand.

MU: Okay. Any brand here that grew because you guys started to buy them more, you have increased your buying quite a bit or vice versa where you have decreased your purchases quite a bit?

GM: I mean, we've increased the buys big time in ASICS; that is really carrying a lot of the growth. In Hoka, we were really constrained. We would have loved to do at least 2 times more than what we're doing now. We could have easily because the brand is really resonating with the consumer. And with Nike and Adidas, we just decreased the buy by canceling, making some returns. So we've adjusted our inventory to market performances. The final piece where we

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

really invested and we could have done even more is Altra; we anticipated a growth so we really went big on it and we could have actually sold... we increased almost... we multiply close to by 2 and I think we could do by 3, times 3 for this brand. Small base, but very strong consumer desirability.

MU: Got it. Any observations around the core franchises of these brands like you talked about AlphaFly, but if you can just talk about some franchises that did well for you and some that did not?

GM: Yes, absolutely. The front end that I've done very well, very much around ASICS, Superblast, Megablast and Metaspeed are probably the 3 names, especially the 2 first ones. The Metaspeed has a bit more like promotional activity but still is selling through. The new Novablast 6 was also... okay, it really ramped up. I think it was also a question of really cleaning the Nova 5, Novablast 5 inventory. At the same time, we launched towards the end of the third quarter 2 big, big franchises, 1 from Nike, the Pegasus Plus 2, and 1 from Adidas, the Adios Pro 5, and both of them got a very soft response from the consumer to stay very positive. So not a successful launch. Pegasus Plus 2, the reasons we're really extrapolating is now the consumer has really mainly shifted towards the Vomero family so that's 1 element. And when it comes to Adios Pro 5, there's some product feedback which are not great. When you test it, you return the product after 1 or 2 runs, so there's a product problem which is really... that was not expected because Adios Pro 4, the previous model, was working extremely well for us in our premium running slash race positioning.

MU: Got it. Were any price increases implemented in the third quarter?

GM: No, we are really not into implementing prices neither in Q3 nor in Q4. I mean, you know Q4 is anyway a very strong price battle, most of the quarter with the whole Black Friday big era. When it comes to Q3, we're trying to still generate a profitable business in a much more transactional market. So this is more the goal we're trying to get after right now.

MU: Any noteworthy new launches for you during the third quarter?

GM: So we had indeed the launches I've mentioned, Novablast, Pegasus Plus 2 and the Adios Pro 5, they were the most remarkable ones. We had 1 additional launch with Hoka, but with the small units we had, I mean it worked, but it's very hard for us to really assess the performance of this launch due to all the operational problems or challenges they are having were really taking the bad consequences of them.

MU: How was the promotional environment? Could you talk about the depth and duration of the promotions as well as the proportion of sales that were driven through them?

GM: Yes, so when it comes to top 4 running, our discount percentage for Q3 was 22% so it's stronger than last year by close to 2.3 points, so even more than 2 points, so that's quite significant and this is also having an impact on margin by 1.5% with 37.17% in gross margin on this Q3 versus last year.

MU: How healthy are your current inventory levels? And if you can talk about your under 6 months old inventory or however, which way you like to segment it?

GM: Yes. So overall view, our overall inventory is -8% in volume than it was last year. So I would say we're in a good spot when it comes to inventory. On the 0 to 90 days, we're 59.1% of our inventory and 3 to 6 months, we are 24.5%. So the 0 to 6 months, which is usually the young age inventory, is 83.6% which is positive. And the 6 to 12 months is another 13.5% knowing that we have still some full price considered in-season product in that bracket or the neutral colors, white, black, gray, etc. So our inventory is good from an age perspective, from a size perspective. Where we are having much more challenges is because of the shift of brands that are really working for the consumer and those brands working much less. This is where we need to pivot and this is our biggest challenge.

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

MU: Got it. But a follow-up here, you said you were preparing for around 8% of growth, whereas it declined by 8%. So this huge 16% of gap in your expectations and still your inventory is declined. Could you maybe talk about how were you able to control your inventory when sales were so significantly short of expectations?

GM: Yes, it's a very good question. We've done a huge order management, booking order management over the summer. Lots of consolidation, lots of return to vendor, not only in running but also in other categories like lifestyle, basketball, to make sure we stay clean. And at the same time, the reason why we're so losing in margin and being more promotional than last year is also one of the consequences that we had to take to make our inventory cleaner.

MU: And any particular brand where you think the inventory specifically is a problem? In running today?

GM: Adidas. At the end of the day, it's very much connected with the performances of the brand, Nike and Adidas first, because they are the 2 biggest brands. So as soon as their sell-through becomes soft or the product reception is soft, like Adios Pro, Peg Plus 2, or Pegasus launch earlier this year in April, we have over-inventory situation and we need to take actions against that. There is also a third brand which is always for us a very interesting case, New Balance. So on one side, New Balance, we are able to sell through well some running product, but we continue to have old stock that we are not able to move as quickly as what we'd like. So when you think about... Return, New Balance is also part of the game, but in a very different spot than the 2 previous brands.

MU: And is there any brand where you probably would like to have more inventory but you are not getting it?

GM: Hoka, ASICS still, even if we have already a lot, we could sell even more, and Altra. Those are really the 3 names that are coming to mind.

MU: Got it. And then when you look at your order books for the next few seasons, next couple of seasons, which brands have the most exciting pipeline for you and which brands do you anticipate facing challenges?

GM: So basically most exciting pipeline, super small numbers, but I think Puma has strong innovations with a nitro based collection. Again, very small numbers, but they have a strong differentiation of the marketplace policy, strong moderns and willingness to really push on running. So this is positive. Nike, surprisingly, I put Nike in the red and green at the same time because they are resetting their whole racing strategy and this also matters a lot for us in our business. So this is positive. Now the big question with Nike is how they're going to really manage their distribution policy. And then we, I think we will see the scaling of the light spray innovations for on running, which can be a very interesting business driver in our case with all the foundation work we've done for lending this innovation.

MU: Got it. And are you confident of getting the supply of the brands and models that you are excited about?

GM: Okay. I think when it comes to supply, the big question for us remains Hoka. With all the supply problems we have now and the business constraints, that's a very big one. The other piece potentially could be Nike because lately we had some operation challenges with them, but those two brands are right now the most questionable brands. I would potentially add actually ASICS because sometimes they've been a bit light and just to bounce back to your previous questions, what are the brands that you see also performing next year? Here, ASICS can definitely be one of them. They're going to bring some innovations in both March, May and September that are going to be very relevant for the consumer.

MU: Got it. What growth are you building for the fourth quarter as well as fourth quarter 26 as well as year 2027?

GM: So a growth for Q4 right now will be plus 7% versus last year and also plus 1.4 when it comes to a gross margin.

MU: And what about year 2027?

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

GM: Ambitious quarter. So for 27, it will be... Consolidated 8.2 plus 8.2 in gross margins and we're trying to be plus 8.2 in revenue and plus 0.6 PPT in gross margin so high single digit growth and trying to work more on the profitability versus generating revenue at any cost.

MU: Any particular factors that give you confidence that you will be able to bring back this growth into high single digit categories after a decline in the third Q?

GM: To me, the big points are first, the market is stable, but the market is not down. There's still an appetite for brands from the consumer, but this appetite is more. Consumers are loyal to innovations more than to brands, so we just need to have the right supply in brands. So for me, the fact that we're able to evolve our operating model and being much more agile gives me confidence that we can really right-size Adidas and to a certain extent Nike to enable to get more open to buy to fuel the growth of those smaller brands like Puma, Altra. I didn't talk about Brooks because it's still very small, but I think we can do much more with Brooks on a small base and continuing to fuel ASICS. So we are confident that we can absolutely achieve that, especially with what's coming in the pipeline of those brands.

MU: Got it. Any, you said, you know, no price increases planned for fourth quarter also, but when you see new launches happening, are they happening at a meaningful price premium to previous models? So a model, you know, XYZ27, is it launching at a meaningful premium to XYZ26, something like that?

GM: I think the overall, yes, my answer will be overall the models are well-priced, and I would say for most of them they're actually priced very high. You know, I continue to be very surprised on how much consumers are ready to pay for running shoes, especially on the €180, €200, but this is a fact. Just for your information, the running market has increased average selling price by 12% from '24 to '25 and from '25 to '26, so there is a real willingness for those consumers to spend more in their, to have more premiumness and more quality in their running shoes. So this is a fact. Now, how priced are those models in this premium running area? I think it's... Yeah, it's well priced. I would almost think it's a bit too high for the true value of the product itself.

MU: Got it. And when you talk about 2027 growth of approximately 8%, what kind of unit growth are you building in it?

GM: It's going to be a unit growth of plus 7.6% and that's correlating with the fact that we have a gross margin increase of plus 0.6 PPT.

MU: Got it. Let's go through these brands one by one. You have already covered them in detail, but maybe if you can talk about your near term growth or degrowth expectations for them, that would be great. So starting with Nike.

GM: So Nike, we are on a plus 5% next year, driven by racing being back, but still at the same time we are seeing racing back and we're happy about it. We still don't know how the whole Vomero Premium will be managed from a marketplace point of view and we're not making heavy bets on that one. Adidas minus 10%. The newness we've seen, the upcoming newness are not strong enough and with the recent crash of the Adios Pro 5, we don't have any big hopes. We're gonna try to manage the business with a key partner for us. Puma, we are trying to triple the business next year. So as I've mentioned earlier, technology is strong, the distribution management is strong, the willingness to push and become a real player in running is also strong. So I'd say all the pipes are aligned. They just have, I mean, the name Puma itself needs a bit more equity, but in the running world, it's taking much less time than in other sports. So we are confident. On Running, I have plus 12%, so a light double-digit increase, which is above our current performances, driven by the fact that they're going to scale the LightSpray and we're key players for them in that space. Hoka is a big unknown. It really depends on the operating model. If the whole operations is set up, we are planning plus 43% increase. Asics continue to be our strong growing partners, plus 19% next year with again some

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

very interesting innovations in the premium running and premium road running space. New Balance, as I've said, we always have a mixed feeling, but we do want to grow with them so we're going to try to clean up as much as possible the inventory to fuel a 15% growth. Salomon, plus 40%. The base is small, there's still some good traction in trail, so we believe that given the small size of our business, we can continue to grow very significantly with them. And Brooks, again super small base, we have a concession model with them that we're going to try to evolve and we'd like to multiply by 3 the business here as well.

MU: Got it. I have 3 follow-ups, 1 each on Adidas, On, and Salomon. We'll start with Adidas because Adidas has been flagging quite a significant growth in running in the last few quarters. So why do you think suddenly things are slowing for them because they have been, you know, setting up records, marathon, their shoes are doing well, at least as per them, so RD0, etc. So what's happening? It's happening that some kind of slowdown is being visible there.

GM: Thank you, because I believe it's a very good question. The numbers that Adidas is communicating are running wide numbers. So they include what they sell in running specialty, yes, in small portion, but also sporting goods generalist, athletic specialty generalist, JD, Foot Locker, plus even the entry-level channels like Deichmann in Germany. So yes, the running is potentially doing well, but it's not a qualitative growth. It's not a growth driven by innovation. It's just a growth where you are pushing products, where you are being okay with them distributed everywhere and discounted, so it's not a sustainable growth. Nike is in a very similar zone with Vomero, Vomero Premium that are everywhere, JD, etc. And yes, Nike running is also growing, but we're declining just because we're running specialty. So we are in a more premium zone led by innovations, led by product distinction. And usually when we don't see growth, it turns out to be the case 2 years after in some sporting goods specialists. What Adidas currently has better than Nike is all racing segment, because to your point, they have some very strong shoes, they win major marathons, they've done a couple of sub-two in London, they won with Assefa 2 weeks ago in Berlin, still being injured and close to breaking the world record. So I would say it's a top, top innovation product. And by that, I mean the Evo 3 are definitely in a very good spot, and when we have them, we sell them like in minutes, but they are super allocated. In any way, they are business drivers, and where Adidas is struggling now is to be able to scale pure racing into racing and premium running. So they really have nothing in between pure racing that they dominate and the 160, 180 segment, and the Hyperboost, all the real recent launches, and even the Adios Pro 5 are not helping there.

MU: Got it. But just to drill down on this expectation, maybe if you have your growth expectations at the level of franchisees, that would be great. So I did Hyperboost, RD0, EOSL, whatever you can, whatever you have handy. If you can share some expectations there, that would be great.

GM: Okay, let me just open it. So you would like to see what franchises exactly you'd like to see.

MU: The key running franchises are Hyperboost and RD0.

GM: So Hyperboost, we are comping a launch here. So we're going to be -16%. And at Adios Pro, we are working as we speak on the forecast for next year. We're going to bring it down. We were supposed to grow 6%, but most probably it's going to be a decline. Low to mid-single-digit decline versus this year on the Adios Pro. And the Evo SL2 is going to be flat versus current results.

MU: Got it. Next is On, and especially if you can talk about On's future in specialty running. What are you liking? What are you not? Because On also gave out very strong expectations. Of course, there are a lot of levers behind it in the direction that they are taking the brand. But what according to you is the future of On in specialty running?

GM: On for us is one of the most, I don't want to say complex, but yet to a certain extent, one of the hardest brands to really position. We can really see all the colors of the rainbow. What we love is a light spray innovation. It's a true

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

innovation for upper, from manufacturing down to supply to consumer benefits to everything you can do with the shoe. We love that. We've been key partners. Next year, we're also going to scale it. So we're really trying to push the foundation of our business in that space. The Cloudmonster is actually working pretty decently. I have to say that's for us, that's a good revenue driver and it's also a strong premium road running. I mean, positioning though, this is also very positive. At the same time, there's still a lot of products that are not resonating, a lot of those franchises that they have with the Cloudsurfer, etc., for instance, that are just not resonating at the... The hope we put on them, you know, the X5, Cloud Surfer, just to name the most important.

MU: Got it. And lastly, Salomon, you talked about trail. Maybe talk about Salomon's future in road running also. I know they are creating their own niches as they go around gravel and all. But how do you think about Salomon's expanding beyond the core niches that it has?

GM: Well, it's also a very good question. It's a question we ask ourselves. We've really put 2 bets with Salomon. The first one was on gravel. And I think overall here, we're delivering against our expectations. It's a bit less premium positioning because they don't have enough model to differentiate, but it's overall hitting the mark. Running is much softer. We were having actually those same discussions with them on is it only for us? Is it across marketplace? So they grow in sporting goods, in running, they're going to tell you that they have great numbers, same story as what Adidas is also broadcasting. When it comes to running specialty, like the Phantasma 3 that they launched last February, it's actually having a very low sell-through. We need to sell it on discount. So for us, it's taking much longer than planned. And probably the triathlon, the sign up a partnership with Ironman, hopefully that's going to help them get faster or more legitimate in this space. But now that's a little bit the... they under-delivered in that space according to our forecast.

MU: Great, so with that, we are at the end of the line here. Guillaume, thank you so much for taking time out and sharing your insights with us.

GM: Thank you very much, Mayank.

DISCLAIMER: The statements or opinions expressed today are those of the Advisor and not Guidepoint, who disclaims all liability for the content provided. The Advisor may not disclose material nonpublic or confidential information or any information that would cause the Advisor to breach any duty or obligations. Guidepoint is not a registered investment advisor and the information provided is not intended to constitute investment advice.

10/11/2026 at 11:36 AM UTC