← 返回

2026.10.11 | Substack | Weekly | Weekly Recap & Portfolio Adjustments

原标题：What Happened Last Week + Adjustments to My Portfolio. Trimming Some. Adding Some. 50+ Charts with Levels.

#weekly #markets

Substack · 2026-10-11

Yesterday I talked about how I want my page to continue to be heavy on the research, but increasingly provide more investment takeaways as well.

Including my personal strategies and how I navigate the market for those that are interested.

Each week I am going to do an article like this one here.

I intend to trim some positions this week and add some new ones I haven’t talked about on here.

So with that, let’s dive in!

What I Wrote This Past Week

1. An introduction to AI Medicine

An Introduction to AI Medicine. A Very Promising Theme.

Gaetano

·

Oct 6

Read full story

This amazingly marked the top of the market.

I got a bunch of crap from people on X for buying the top. But if they took time to read it, they would notice that I didn’t buy any of these stocks yet haha. These stocks are still quite far away from any risk:reward that I can tolerate (aside from maybe a quick swing trade). But regardless, I think there will be really great opportunity here when the dust settles. And I will work hard to find the best positioned companies at the right price. Also I spent some time on Bio/Pharma twitter and man, do they (generally) hate this run up. I get it and I played the genomics run up in 2020-2021 and I think it feels the same to lots of people in this space. But it’s very similar to the AI/semis/bottleneck trade we saw in Q2. Every company indiscriminately got bid up. And then many of them got crushed becuase they either 1) don’t acutally have anything going on or 2) they got so detached from their valuations. I am hoping for a broad pullback where I can get into the best positioned companies over the next few years.

2. Marvell Investor Day

Marvell Raised Its Outlook Again. Must Read!

Gaetano

·

Oct 7

Read full story

I thought this was such a bullish investor day. I really hope MRVL drops further as I would like to significantly build out my position.

3. Agility Robotics Investor Day

Agility Investor Day. What Changed? Is There An Opportunity Here? First Pure-Play U.S. Listed Humanoid Stock $CCXI $AGLT

Gaetano

·

Oct 7

Read full story

Maybe not as strong as Marvell’s investor day… But it did provide a lot of good insight.

4. QCOM quick visit + valuation

QCOM: Why I’m Excited About What Comes Next

Gaetano

·

Oct 8

Read full story

I am getting increasingly bullish on the long term vision for Qualcomm. I might be too pilled on physical AI/AI wearables, but it’s hard for me not to be bullish here. I think near term headwinds could keep the stock down but long term I think it could work for several reasons.

5. Upgrades to my Substack

More Value for Subscribers. Here’s What I’m Adding. Please Read!

Gaetano

·

Oct 10

Read full story

Just trying to make this place as valuable as possible.

A look at my Portfolio + Stocks I am Watching.

Alright, we’ve got some things to discuss here.

I’ve got some trimming, adding, and reallocating to do.

Some of this might surprise you.

I am going to break down the following:

Before we get into this otpical section, please understand a few things:

1 - This is all specific to my own investment strategy. Please do not blindly follow me. Rather take in the info, challenge it with your own thesis, and then do whatever makes the most sense for you. Just because I am trimming doesn’t mean I think it’s the top. And just because I am adding doesn’t mean I think it’s the very bottom.

2 - I have been invested in many of these optical companies for a year or so. Many of my initial purchases are up hundreds of percent.

3 - I could just be totally off with my timing. I am not a TA expert. I mostly make decisions based on valuation. Yes I use TA to try to be more precise with my entries/exits, but they don’t solely decide my strategy.

4 - I don’t have a hardset rule for what weight my ‘core’ position is for each company. It generally is around 70%. So if I trade around my core that means that 30% I am actively buying and selling, taking advantage of the volatility while the 70% just remains through it all.

5 - The market is so jumpy on any negative AI news. If we get any kind of major and sustained concern over Hyperscaler ROI or slowdown in AI dev, I think it could get pretty gnarly again. Also, I have mentioned many times that I think it’s very noteable that these stocks are doing as well as they are with the 10y this high. I am hoping that rates start to cool off soon and we can get another sustained leg higher. But if they keep ripping, I think something has to break. And maybe it’s high growth tech. Always on my mind, which is why I am being conservative on swings and more defensive than I have been.

Also, this is a really long article. If you want a tldr version based on your interests, I would plug it into your favorite LLM with some quesitons specific to your interests. Whether its knowing where I want to trim, where I want to add, what companies you are interested in by industry etc.

Also, please ask as many questions as you’d like!

Financial Disclaimer

This publication is intended for informational and educational purposes only. All research, commentary, price targets, technical levels, portfolio allocations, and trading strategies reflect my personal opinions and investment approach. Nothing presented should be interpreted as individualized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or a solicitation to engage in any investment transaction.

Personal Holdings and Conflicts of Interest: I currently hold or may establish positions in securities discussed throughout this publication, including common stocks, options, and other financial instruments. My positions, allocations, and investment outlook may change at any time without prior notice. I may buy, sell, increase, reduce, or close positions before or after publication. Any disclosed portfolio holdings or trading activity represent a snapshot in time and should never be interpreted as instructions for readers to replicate my transactions.

Investment Risk: All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Certain securities discussed may experience substantial volatility, liquidity constraints, dilution, or significant declines in market value. Options trading carries additional risks, including the potential loss of the entire premium paid. Short-term trading strategies and concentrated positions can amplify losses. Each investor has unique financial circumstances, investment objectives, time horizons, and risk tolerances.

Price Targets, Forecasts, and Technical Analysis: All price targets, valuation estimates, support and resistance levels, financial projections, and potential market scenarios represent estimates based on information available at the time of publication. These assessments rely on assumptions that may prove incorrect. Technical levels can fail, valuations can change rapidly, and anticipated catalysts may produce unexpected outcomes. No projected price, return, or investment outcome is guaranteed.

Research and Information Accuracy: I make reasonable efforts to use reliable information, including company filings, earnings reports, management commentary, industry research, and publicly available market data. However, accuracy, completeness, and timeliness cannot be guaranteed. Information obtained from third parties, including industry contacts and market participants, may be incomplete, preliminary, or subject to differing interpretations. Readers should independently verify material information before making investment decisions.

Past Performance: References to previous trades, portfolio returns, successful investments, or historical price movements are provided for context. Past performance offers no guarantee of future results. Individual results will vary, and examples of profitable transactions may exclude other positions that experienced losses.

Independent Decision-Making: Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should conduct independent due diligence and consult qualified financial, legal, or tax professionals when appropriate. My personal portfolio strategy may be unsuitable for other investors. Access to this publication, including through a paid subscription, creates no investment advisory, fiduciary, or brokerage relationship.

Publication and Updates: All opinions and information are current only as of their stated publication date unless otherwise specified. Market conditions, security prices, company fundamentals, and my personal positioning may change without notice. I have no obligation to update previously published research, forecasts, trade levels, or portfolio disclosures.

By reading this publication, you acknowledge that investment decisions and their associated risks remain your responsibility.

Let’s start with $LITE

They are going to continue to absolutely crush earnings calls for the foreseeable future and I believe they are the best positioned optical company for the foreseeable future.

But I think the market is pricing in a lot of this and it would take significant updates to really drive the share price higher. We have so much visibility into the future for them with them being sold out for years. What else can they tell the market that will impress them enough to drive the price up another 30-40-50%?

I think that if the semis market going through another correction, LITE could revisit the 700s again. If everything goes really right, and the market continues to award a premium, I could see LITE getting to 1500. But I don’t love that I personally feel like the 700s is more likely than the 1500s. Again, this is just me but it’s hard for me to shake it.

Today it is my largest optical holding. I haven’t trimmed yet, but I would like to. I have owned my core position since the 200’s. I have traded around my core often. If we close below $1000 with volume, I intend to sell a large portion of my position. With the desire to add back in if we see the 700s. I just don’t want to be as overweight here as I am.

FN

I am very encouraged to see the aggressive recovery over the past few weeks.

I would really like to see this close above $520 with some strength. If we do that I think that $560 could be in store and I would look to start to reduce my position there. Closing below $450 would be concerning to me and I would trim around my core with anticipation for lower.

$AAOI

Thankful that the ATM is over!

To be clear, I would expect AAOI to do at least 1 more ATM late NOV/DEC. Hopefully they dont and they can rely on some other instrument. But I have that in my base case. These next 2 quarters are extremely important for AAOI. If they can prove the rev ramp with qualifications on time and more customers, then I think we have lots of room overhead. If they don’t, and the market doubts their execution, I see lots of room lower. If execution is poor these next few Q’s, I see the 40’s-50’s. If everything goes as management expects, I see the low 200’s in store. So at $110, I think it’s at a good spot for me to maintain my core and have some swings in. But man, this trades so volatile and heavy. Definitely has risk.

$GFS

I have been increasingly bullish on GFS.

I recognize that the market has concerns and it will take several quarters for my thesis to play out. But I find the 40’s attractive with that ~$40 level as a pretty solid support. I anticipate them looking like a much different company mid 2027 and I expect/hope the market will start to award that soon. We just need more confidence that they can be a trusted, major player. If/when that happens, I think there will be gains to be made. Maybe I give them too much credit. We’ll see. Holding my core, added swings.

$COHR

This has been trading heavy. No doubt.

And I think I understand why.

There is doubt about Coherent’s 6-inch success. For two main reasons.

1 - The substrate suppliers (currently Sumitomo primarily, and increasingly AXT) aren’t shipping that many 6-in wafers. Where is Coherent getting all these wafers from? People I have spoken to with deeeep and direct industry relationships doubt that Coherent is getting that many wafers to do the ramp they want to do.

2 - The 6-in wafers that are being delivered supposedly result in very poor yield. They are really hard to make. And they have lots of issues. So while management says yield is better than 3-4 in, we don’t actually know which yield they are talking about. There are several types of yield. But there is disbelief that the finished yields they are getting are meaningful and that they won’t result in significant margin improvement.

I think it’s more of a timing issue than an existential issue personally. By mid 2027 there will be much more 6-in substrate supply and the processes should improve.

I also believe that major firms have run a strategy of long LITE, short COHR. With LITE being at ATH and COHR being well below, I would be curious if they flip this around with anticipation that COHR is in a better place next year.

That ascending line I have in COHR has held really nicely the past few weeks. It has been a level I keep adding to quick swings for a 10-15% gain. Hopefully we get some news this week that could break us out above. Maybe OCP will have something in store.

If we break below I will close out my swings and hold my core. Would look for the 230’s to add back to swings.

$MRVL

Like I mentioned recently, I think Marvell is in a really great spot long term.

I’ve got my core position that I am holding. I don’t have any swings in it right now. I would love to see the $240 level and see how we react there for potential swing adds.

$FORM

Testing has done really really well.

Earnings coming up will be interesting. We are much higher than we were at last Q. I only have my core position here. If we close below $130 I will close it out. If we get to new ATH I will close it out as well.

$VIAV

Really nice to see the strength here. Another name that just get’s punished often.

I’ve got my core position in tact. Hopefully we can close above $48 and work towards that $52-$56 level.

If we close below $44 I will trim and look to add back in the mid 30’s.

$TSEM I think the company is in a really great position and their tech is much better than GFS in many ways.

I don’t have a position currently but I would really like to see that $195-$200 area for a meaningful position size. Hopefully we get there. Would take some meaningful weakness in the market I think.

$SMTC Amazing strength. Really proud of this one. Stayed heavily convicted through the pullback.

I currently only hold my core position. Intend to hold that for a while even though I could definitely see a strong pullback to the $150-$170 area. I would look for $150 to add some swings.

$CIEN Such strong strength after the market digested the investor day.

I would really like to see a close above $460. I currently have core and swings in. If we close below $420 I will close out my swings and look to the $350 area to add back.

$ADTN Finally caught a bid after MRVL comments.

This is one where I see really meaningful upside if they can execute over the coming quarters. But up until a few days ago it was trading very heavy and the market was very willing to punish it. No swing for me. Just a long term high risk exposure.

$CRDO In hindsight that $150 area was such a great buy spot.

No position for me currently. Would look for $180 for an add. Don’t know if we get there or not but that’s where I am interested given what we know today.

$GLW Has just not been that exciting lately.

I’ve got my core position in place. If we close below $140 I think I am going to close it out mostly because I just see more upside from other names. Ideally we break this $170 level and get towards $200 where I would also consider closing out a good portion of my position.

$AXTI interesting spot here.

I’ve got my core position in tact. No swings right now. Would love to see a re-test of that $56 level pre earnings where I would most likely take some more. The InP shortage story is only going to get stronger in my opinion.

$MTSI Great strength and narrative behind this one.

I’ve got my core position in tact but no swings. Watching the $260-$280 area if we ever get there for some swings.

$NOK The base this stock is forming is significant.

I currently have my core and no swings. I am very bullish on their late 2027-2028 time period. I feel less confident in waht the stock does between now and then. I find that $9-$9.5 area attractive for swings in the meantime.

$IQE was looking good on the breakout. Now retesting.

I’ve got my core in tact and find the ~$40-$44 area attractive for swings. Hopefully this level can hold and we push above $60 to new ATH.

I think that’s about it for my optical positions.

Let’s move on to some Physical AI.

I am going to show a bunch of charts I am already invested in or want to invest in. Since this article today was not planned, I dont’ have all my financial models displayed.

But next week and every week going forward, I will continue to build on this article, with all the updates and I will also have my 12 mo base + bear case for each company. I think that will make it even more valuable.

Many positions I have taken were during the unwind in June/July. So my timing was quite poor. And many of these stocks will take many quarters/years to really play out. So while I am still building out the long term port, I believe the best way for me to maximize gains here is exactly how I do it with my optical port. Hold core, add/trim with periphery. So I want to share the stocks I am interested in and levels I like for those swings and be very transparent with you guys in addition to building out my core long term.

$BKSY This one trades so wild.

While the robinhood news I mentioned the other day isn’t a massive rev driver, I am hoping it is early stages of a perspective change for the company. For a swing I am looking at that $17.5 area for a nice return.

$BBAI I had feared that the market wouldn’t reward this one and for now at least that is playing out. If this $2.39 area doesn’t hold, I think it could get pretty gnarly below.

This is the position I have the least confidence in in my portfolio at this time and the one i see as the most risky. I am hoping that the next few quarters show some meaningful progress. I have no desire to add to swings here given what we know today.

$CGNX I think they are building a really great company for the next several years.

I like the $55-$57.5 area for swings.

$QCOM Again, I am feeling quite bullish on the long term.

I have swings in place including 3/19/27 $230 and 1/15/27 $200 calls. I don’t do long term calls often but I am starting to. Hopefully this works out.

$AEVA aside from BBAI this is the biggest moonshot.

It could trade in the single digits or it can trade in the 50’s. It’s going to be extremely volatile and uncertain for a bit. And heavily narrative driven. In a high rate environment, stocks like this don’t do well. I wish I was more patient on my adds in this one. But I am willing to ride out the story and see what happens. No swing interest for me at this time. Too much downside uncertainty with all the growth being in the future.

$INDI I’ll be honest I thought that $2.9 level was really going to hold.

I still feel the same level of confidence I did in this name when I first invested even if the chart looks pretty gnarly. I believe they are well positioned but it might take several quarters to play out. I would take that $2.45 level as an additional swing with a tight stop below it just incase things get really crazy. Really rough chart.

$INOD Might be one of the weirdest movement I hav experienced in a stock.

The way it trades is just so unique. As a result, I don’t really want to swing it because my read on it is not strong. But I am hoping that their next Q could really lean into both agentic and robotic and we could move up again.

$OUST was looking really good until a few days ago.

I do really like swinging this one. Because when it get’s moving it tends to go for a multi day run. I like the $32-$34 area for swings.

$LSCC Still a decent bit off highs.

I like the $100-$110 area for swings.

$VPG great rally off of that $60 level

I find that $60-$65 level attractive for swings. Hopefully we can push $80 again.

$NXPI I wonder if they will buy $AMBA

I like $218-$220 for swings.

$AGCO I’ve got a report coming out on this one soon.

While $100 might hold, I find $90 attractive for a long term + swing.

$DE Similar to AGCO had some recent industry headwinds that pushed the price lower.

Will be watching that $580 level if we get there. Would like $560 more.

$RRX Got away from me.

I want the low $140s. If we break above $170 I don’t think I’m getting it.

$BDC

Will be watching that $95-$100 level for a swing.

$CEVA great bounce off that $25 level.

Would be interested in that area again for a swing.

$TKR

Maybe that $100-$105 area, but I’d really like the $95 area for a long term + swing.

$NOVT

Looking for $110-$120 here for a swing + long term add.

$AMBA

That < $60 level has been a consistent place of support recently and I would add swings there. Hopefully if we do get a buyout its all cash and over $105/share.

$TDY

Interested in that $560-$580 level for swings.

$MCHP

Interested in $60-$64 level for swings.

$STM

Looking for that $44 level for a potential swing.

$CAT

I’d take $770 for a swing with a tight stop below. Then if it kept going I’d look for ~$660 for a swing + long term add.

$MBLY

Rough price action + stock. Hit with several analyst downgrades. I still believe in my long term thesis. But the next few Q’s might be rough for this one. No swing interest for me at this time given the chart.

$ON

The market liked the change of their deal with SYNA. But now giving it back. I like the $65-$70 area for swings.

$CCXI

I mean I’ll swing it at the $10.3 level if we get there. Don’t think id hold it for the despac though.

$MP

Interested in that $38-$40 level for both a long term + swing.

$ULBI

Looking for $5-$5.3 for a swing + long term (maybe).

Ok that’s enough Physical AI.

Now for ORCL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, META I have just been very slowly DCA every day. If they hit a meaningful support like a 200D I will buy heavier that day. But otherwise just a very slow drip.

Now some random stuff.

$CIFR

I really like swinging CIFR for quick trades. Up until the past few days it was quite predictable in that most days it would drop 5% or so and then recover.

But it broke recent levels and is now approaching yearly lows at $12.

I bought shares at $13.3 along with $15 calls for 1/15/27.

We could absolutely see lower and get to that $12 area.

But I did want some high beta exposure to neos and CIFR has been a decent vehicle for that for me.

$AKAM

The market really didn’t love the deal I guess. I get it, the dilution + capex is meaningful. But I still really like it long term. Give me the $90 area and I will add to my long term heavier. Also like the $90-$100 area for a swing.

$NKTR

Looking for the $36 area for a swing.

$BSX

I really am not so sure on this one. As you guys should know I really don’t like investing in charts that look like this. But I do it anyway sometimes. And it’s nice to have exposure that is non AI. I went long at $42 and will hold it for a while. I like $36 for a swing as long as nothing breaks.

$CBRS

Kind of a scary chart with now support below these levels but I did take some $164. Will probably set a stop if we close below $160.

$PACB

I am watching that $1.8 area for a potential swing. Very very volatile with lots of risk.

$VCYT

Watching that $38 area for a potential swing.

$TLT

I took 02/19/2027 $80 calls. Kind of a lotto play here. Not sure if my timing will be good or not. We’ll see.