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Software · Pattern · 2026.10.20

2026 年 software 反转的赢家,靠的是什么

SNOW、DDOG、NET、CRWD 回到了 2025 年高点以上,MDB 和大多数 seat 股没有。拆开看它们的共同点,再把它变成我们选 software 的筛选框架。

4家回到前高以上
+52~113%低点前的加速财报买入至今
17-35x赢家现在的 EV/收入
64条逐字原文

总体判断

口径:"反转"指 2026 年 2-4 月软件板块大跌之后,股价回到并超过 2025 年高点。符合的只有 CRWD、DDOG、NET、SNOW 四家;MDB 从低点涨了 54%,但还在前高下方 20%,是反例。对照组是 6 家按 seat 收费的大盘软件股,加上 TEAM。数据来自 IBKR 周线、各公司业绩会转录 (FactSet)、Knowledge Base 里的专家访谈和卖方摘要;63 条引文已逐字核对原文。

Executive Summary

四家赢家的共同点只有两条是硬的。第一,收钱的单位不是人头:DDOG 收数据量,NET 收请求量,SNOW 收计算量,CRWD 收端点和模块。Agent 越多,这些单位越多。第二,报表上的增速已经连续加速好几个季度,全年指引一次次上调:SNOW 的指引从 27% 调到 36%,DDOG 从 18-20% 调到 30%。

MDB 证明只有第一条不够。它也按用量收费,但 Atlas 增速连续 5 个季度停在 29% 左右,AI 客户只占 Atlas 的 3-5%;股价两次冲高都回落,现在还在前高下方 20%。

最有用的一条是时间:加速在 4 月低点之前就已经写在财报里。DDOG、NET 2 月 10 日的财报已经是 29% 和 33.6%,之后股价又跌了 15-16%,因为整个板块在跌。从那份财报当周买入,到现在涨了 52-113%。

问题是这些赢家现在都通不过你的价值标准:扣掉 SBC 后的 FCF 接近零或为负,EV/收入 17-35 倍。所以这个框架更适合用来提前找"下一个",并在板块被一起打下来时出手,而不是去追现在这四家。

赢家 pattern:五条

#条件四家赢家MDBseat 落后者怎么查
1AI 让收费单位变多 (不是人头)4/4是否收入按什么计:seat、员工数,还是数据、请求、计算、端点、交易
2已经报出来的加速:增速连续 ≥2 个季度加速,指引上调4/4否否季度增速序列;全年指引相对年初上调了几个点
3加速不靠一个 AI 大客户DDOG、SNOW 明确披露——剔除最大客户或 AI 原生客户后的增速
4计量的东西是自己的,不是转卖模型 token基本是是部分毛利率有没有因为 AI 产品明显下降
5股价被板块叙事一起打下来,而 1-2 条已在数字里4/4,低点前再跌 14-28%——板块跌 30% 以上时,筛出 1-2 条已经成立的

对照你的标准

  • 好公司:四家都是。客户留存高 (DDOG 毛留存 high 90s,SNOW NRR 126%),竞争格局清楚,AI 是加项不是减项
  • 便宜:四家现在都不便宜。SNOW、NET 扣掉 SBC 的 FCF 是负的;DDOG、CRWD 只剩收入的 4-6%
  • 预期差:预期差在 2-4 月最大,那时数字已经在加速,股价却跟着 seat 股一起跌。现在 DDOG 比前高还高 36%,CRWD 高 68%,预期差已经兑现
  • 怎么用:拿 1-4 条去筛我们的名单,找"收费单位对、但增速还没加速或刚开始加速、估值还没涨上去"的名字,等第 2 条出现

Follow-up

时间盯什么什么结果说明什么
11 月 4-5 日DDOG Q3 (指引 $1.135-1.145B,已计入最大客户减量);NET Q3 (指引 $736-737M)DDOG > $1.18B 说明剔除最大客户后仍在加速,pattern 第 3 条继续成立;NET 渠道专家说 Q3 bookings 环比持平,低于指引上沿要警惕
12 月初MDB Q3 FY27 的 Atlas 增速Atlas 过 30% 是 MDB 第一次满足第 2 条,也是这个框架里最便宜的候选 (约 8.5x);再停在 29% 就继续等
12 月初SNOW Q3 FY27、CRWD Q3 FY27SNOW 产品毛利率是否继续往下 (74% 之下说明 AI 收入里转售 token 变多);CRWD 净新增 ARR 是否达到指引 $343-347M
下一步研究用这五条深挖 ESTC、TWLO、ADYEN (收费单位对,但我们还没核对增速)哪家已经出现第 2 条、估值还在 10 倍收入以下,就进入 deepdive

证据限制:样本只有四家赢家,结论是归纳,不是统计规律;2025 年部分季度数字来自数据聚合网站;估值是粗算,不是一致预期;赢家里 SNOW、NET 的 AI 收入有一部分来自 OpenAI、Anthropic 这类前沿实验室,这部分客户集中度和持续性本文没有单独评估。

谁真的反转了

2025 年 10 月到 2026 年 4 月,软件股整体跌了三分之一 (IGV −36%)。市场担心 AI agent 会替代 SaaS:用的人少了,按人头收的钱就少了。反弹时分化很大:四家回到前高以上,大多数 seat 股还在前高下方 30-70%。

501001502025.072025.102026.012026.042026.072026.10CRWD 168DDOG 160TEAM 127NET 117SNOW 115MDB 97CRM 93IGV 92WDAY 81NOW 79ADBE 73HUBS 48MNDY 46
赢家 SNOW / DDOG / NET / CRWD MDB、TEAM IGV 软件 ETF 按 seat 收费的大盘股 (CRM、NOW、WDAY、HUBS、ADBE、MNDY)

IBKR 周收盘价,以 2025-10-27 当周 (四家赢家里三家的 2025 年高点) 为 100;CRWD、NOW 已按拆股调整;最后一根是 10 月 19 日开始的未完成周。

Ticker收费方式前高2026 低点 (周)高点到低点低点反弹现价 vs 前高2026 YTD
CRWD端点×模块 + Flex 承诺2025-102026-03-23-32%2.47x+68%+94%
DDOG用量 + 承诺额度2025-112026-04-06-45%2.47x+36%+107%
NET请求量分档 + 资金池2025-102026-04-06-34%1.78x+17%+63%
SNOW用量 (credits)2025-102026-04-06-56%2.60x+15%+44%
PLTR合同/订阅2025-102026-06-22-44%1.72x-3%+9%
IGV软件 ETF2025-092026-04-06-36%1.42x-10%+1%
MDB用量 (Atlas) + 许可2025-122026-04-06-48%1.54x-20%-15%
WDAY员工人数2024-122026-04-06-59%1.74x-29%-6%
TEAMseat2025-022026-04-06-82%3.76x-32%+47%
CRMseat 为主2024-122026-06-15-58%1.60x-33%-7%
NOWseat 为主2025-012026-04-06-63%1.75x-35%+3%
ZS用户数2025-102026-04-06-64%1.80x-36%-2%
ADBEseat 为主2024-122026-06-15-65%1.27x-55%-26%
HUBS版本 + seat2025-022026-06-15-78%1.33x-71%-37%
MNDYseat + credits2024-112026-04-06-82%1.59x-71%-37%

PLTR (−3%) 和 ZS (−36%) 没有做驱动研究,只放价格作参照。TEAM 从低点反弹 3.76 倍,是这张表里最大的,但那是从 −82% 的位置弹回来,仍在前高下方 32%,原因在 TEAM seats thesis 那篇里拆过 (迁移、打包和提价,不是 seat 加速)。

赢家的五个共同点

每一条先给判断,再给数字和原话。

AI 让收费单位变多

四家赢家都不按人头收费。Agent 替代人,对它们不是减项;agent 自己会产生更多被计量的东西。

公司收费单位AI 怎么让单位变多反向风险
DDOG数据量、主机、span、日志、调查次数;用量 + 年度承诺AI 应用和 agent 产生更多服务、trace 和工具调用;MCP 调用 2Q26 比 4Q25 涨 22 倍大客户用量太大后自建或换便宜方案 (OpenAI 转 Chronosphere)
NET请求量分档 ("T-shirt" cap 合同为主)、资金池、纯用量 (不到 10%)非人类流量 2026 年 5 月超过人类流量;开发者一个季度多 200 万拦截恶意 AI 爬虫不额外收费;cap 合同下收入滞后于用量
SNOW计算、存储、AI credits;产品收入占 96%agent 生成查询、管道、迁移;CoCo 让 Teradata 迁移从 2-3 年缩到不到 3 个季度CoCo 本身也能帮客户省钱;模型降价让每个任务收入下降
CRWD端点 × 模块;Falcon Flex 多年承诺额度;AIDR 按 token 包每台 agent 虚拟机要装传感器;AIDR 是单独计价的新模块核心端点数和员工、设备数挂钩,Bernstein 认为有天花板
MDBAtlas 按算力和存储用量;EA 按许可vibe coding 和 agent 带来更多应用和读写AI 新应用默认选 Postgres,单位变多但流向别家
CRM、NOW、WDAY、HUBS、ADBE、MNDYseat、员工数、版本,加一层 creditscredits 在长,但只占收入几个百分点 (Agentforce ARR $1.5B,约收入 3%)AI 提高效率,seat 和员工数长期被压
DDOG CEO:人用还是 agent 用,我们不在乎,因为按用量收费
Yeah. Look, I think one thing I'd say is it's hard to tell what we're going to be in four or five years. If you had told me two years ago that most engineers would go back to coding in the console, I wouldn't have believed you. And yet, that's one of the winning modalities today. Look, as far as we're concerned, we don't care whether most of the usage is humans. Most of the usage is agents, our business model lends itself to it pretty well like we're usage based then it doesn't really matter where the user is coming from that perspective. The way we see trends from up right now is we see both a stratospheric increase of agent usage. So, we have a ton of usage on our MCP server. We see customers trying to automate a lot with their own agents, using our agents, using a combination of those. But we also see an increase of usage of the web interfaces by humans. So, right now, the two work hand in hand, and we keep developing and pushing on both fronts.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-8-00-am-et.md L203
发言人背景:Datadog CEO (管理层)
NET CFO:加速来自可变 (用量) 收入;agent 会把 SaaS 从按 seat 推向按用量
Well, we – one of our Founders, Michelle, we make fun of her, because every year, when we have kickoff for the year and talk about the targets for what is to come and how we approach the year, we are only getting started. And now, this is our eighth year as a public company. So the beginning of the year, she said that the eighth is time. And I truly think that what you just said is true. When we think about our life in Act, Act I, Act II, Act III and Workers AI, we'll talk about it, Act IV, content protection, how we monetize it, we still – we think that that opportunity is going to thwart (02:04) what is already behind us. Last year, we were sitting here and agentic AI was still far away. The step-up of the LLMs only came in November and we were primarily concerned about convincing you all that our sales execution was on track, but productivity was coming that we felt comfortable investing in sales capacity, and that was driving the early steps of acceleration and growth in a quite significant way. Now, I think we are what you described in this paradigm shift of what an agentic AI world is going to do to us. And we find ourselves at a point where the network, the architecture, the biggest competitive mode of Cloudflare, the network itself seemed to be designed for what is going to come and support what agentic AI workflows are looking for, super low latency, secure Sandboxes to execute code and so on. So, what you look for are the signs that signal this early – the early innings. And because of the architecture of the network and the benefits, developers are flocking to Cloudflare. So, that is an early sign that I think is signaling this dramatic shift. Developer count was up 2 million developers quarter-over-quarter alone. You'll see that the acceleration of revenue is now happening in what we call variable revenue, right, so, consumption-based revenue. Another big shift, I think, in the agentic world is that we move and disrupt SaaS from a seat-based metric into highly variable consumption-driven revenue. That is where we see acceleration. We're at a point now where pretty much all the large names of AI native companies, whether it's Lovable, Sigma, Anthropic, OpenAI are building on Workers on top of the network. And one of the stats we gave at Investor Day was that we think about 80% of the significant AI enterprise infrastructure is a customer of Cloudflare. So, all the signs you want to see. And there's one trend that I think is signaling what is going to come when it – when we talk about Act IV. There was this vertical that we always were highly underrepresented. It was content creators. Media was always a vertical that was revenue weak at Cloudflare because there was not a lot of value for us just moving bytes from one place to another. And they are now shifting towards Cloudflare to start to protect and make their content that they create scares (05:04) in order to generate leverage. So, I think there are so many structural signs that signal what is coming. And that is, to be very honest, what gave us the confidence at Investor Day to raise our North Star, right? We said for many years now, 40% was our North Star. We shifted that to 50%. We'll exit this year with significant momentum in that direction. And I think there's clearly a world, and that is what we also said beyond 2027, where we will live in a world beyond the Rule of 50, and that will be the result of acceleration of Act III and Act IV.
2026-09-09 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Thomas Seifert · 2026-09-09-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-goldman-sachs-communacopia-technology-conference-9-september-2026-1-08-pm-et.md L24
发言人背景:Cloudflare CFO(现任)
NET CFO 在 Investor Day 解释计费结构:多数合同按请求量分档,收入滞后于用量
So, today, as you can see, we have four primary models of how we generate revenue. The easy ones, the flat rate, this is where we came from, where the world was easy on the IPO-ed and almost 100% of our revenue was subscription based. There is a larger share of pure usage-based revenue today, still under 10% where customers pay us in the rear. The complexity comes from the two other components of how we interact with our customers. Cap models and pool of funds. And you'll find out has a lot to do with T-shirt sizes and Nike Swooshes. And why is that? So, the majority of our contracts are based today on what we call a cap model. And requests in these contracts are the most significant measure for revenue. So, what does this mean? Think of a T-shirt you buy. A customer buys a T-shirt, commit to a ceiling of utilization of a product (01:51:38), for example, type buys, medium-size T-shirt, 10 million requests per month. And it gives us predictable and smooth revenue as long as the customer is using under this umbrella of what he has committed to. But what happens if a customer outgrows that medium-size T-shirt and has to go out and buy a larger one, let's say, small – from medium to large to $20 million requests per month? The traffic is increasing (01:52:09) more than the customer has planned. He needs to buy up. But however, remember, the customer is not going to buy what he consumes in the moment. He's trying to estimate what his future consumption is going to be. And this transition is letting our revenue grow, but it will lag to the inflection point of usage and makes, a little bit of sympathy from all of you, our job of guiding and forecasting a little bit more tricky.
2026-06-09 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Thomas Seifert · 2026-06-10-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-investor-day-9-june-2026-1-00-pm-et.md L895
发言人背景:Cloudflare CFO(现任)
CRWD CEO:AI 安全模块 (AIDR) 是单独计价的增量,不是替代原来的端点防护
So, on the first point, it is separate and incremental. It's another module and it's priced separately, which is, again, where we're seeing a lot of the growth. So, that is certainly a good fact to make sure that we clear up if there was any confusion about it. When we think about the beauty of the architecture and the platform, it's still using the same agent. And if you want to enable AIDR, again, that's a license entitlement. It's part of our friction-free deployment. Again, why is Falcon Flex so successful? Why have we been successful immediate time-to-value? You don't have to roll out yet another agent. So that's very important. And when we talk about sort of like the ramp of this, it's been incredible over the last couple of quarters, and we've seen almost the results, sort of, parallel some of the frontier labs' growth. As they continue to add more agents and capabilities, you have customers that are deploying more AI. They actually want to deploy AI faster, and they need to scale incredibly fast. So, when you combine what we're building with – again, it's on the same platform, that's the beauty, but we're able to monetize it separately. We think that's a home run, and we're showing the value to customers, and they're willing to pay for it because it's very unique in the environment. And they don't want to deploy yet another agent, right? They're getting it all with CrowdStrike, and that's what they're looking for.
2026-08-26 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · George Kurtz · 2026-08-26-corrected-transcript-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-26-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L357
发言人背景:CrowdStrike 创始人兼 CEO(现任)

对照组里的 seat 公司都知道问题在哪。Salesforce CEO 自己说"还困在按用户计价里",monday 说以前扩张只能靠加人:

Salesforce CEO:agent 带来的活动大涨,但我们还困在按用户计价的模式里
Yeah. And I think that that's what's really key. I think your question is so good, Gabriela. I'll tell you why it's so good, because I think that if you would ask us a year ago, we'd be like, well, we don't really know. But I think now what we see is, wow, all this new action on the network, call it agentic action, new user interfaces, new applications. It's just a lot more activity on our service. I mean, the amount of action at Salesforce on our service, the value that we're adding, the actual value that we can give to our customers is immense. So have we fully optimized that yet? No way. We're still trapped in some ways in old, per user pricing models. But the opportunity to build much more aggressive pricing to really represent the value that we're offering our customers, I think is enormous. And Miguel is really at the very beginning of what I think will be one of the most exciting journeys he's ever been on.
2026-08-26 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Marc Benioff · 2026-08-27-corrected-transcript-salesforce-inc-crm-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-26-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L562
发言人背景:Salesforce 联合创始人、董事长兼 CEO (现任)
monday 联合 CEO:改价之前,客户扩张只能靠加人加 seat
Yeah. Maybe just to add what Roy said. Before the changes in the product and the pricing, the only way customers could expand was to add more people and more seats. This is the first time that we added the new agent that we see customers expand not only on the seats for humans, but on AI consumption. And for us, this represent a new vector of growth that didn't exist before, which is part of why we believe so much in our strategy and why we believe so much this is a fundamental change in how the company will be able to grow going forward.
2026-08-10 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Eran Zinman · 2026-08-10-corrected-transcript-monday-com-ltd-mndy-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-10-august-2026-8-30-am-et.md L162
发言人背景:monday.com 联合创始人、联合 CEO (现任)

报表上已经加速,指引上调

第 1 条是必要条件,第 2 条才是触发条件:报表上增速连续加速,管理层随之上调指引。四家赢家都有,MDB 没有。

公司 (指标)一年前2025 下半年低点前最后一份财报低点后第一份最新一季全年指引怎么变
SNOW 产品收入增速26% (FY26Q1,谷底)32% → 29%30% (FY26Q4,2/25 发布)34% (FY27Q1)37% (FY27Q2)FY27 27% → 31% → 36%
DDOG 收入增速25%28% → 28%29% (4Q25,2/10 发布);非 AI 客户 19% → 23%32%;非 AI mid-20s36%;非 AI high-20sFY26 18-20% → 25-27% → ~30%
NET 收入增速27%28% → 30.7%33.6% (Q4'25,2/10 发布)33.5%36%Q3 指引 +31%;北极星从 Rule of 40 提到 50
CRWD 净新增 ARR 增速宕机后低基数+73% (低基数)+47% (FY26Q4,3/3 发布)+32%+51%;ARR 增速 25%FY27 净新增 ARR 增速 22.5% → 27.7% → 34%
MDB Atlas 增速26%29% → 30%29% (FY26Q4)29.4%28.9%全年 +300bp,但 Atlas 增速没动

公司披露 (各公司业绩新闻稿和业绩会,见第 7 节档案的出处)。CRWD 用净新增 ARR 是因为它的收入确认平滑,ARR 的边际变化最先反映需求;2025 年一些季度的数字来自数据聚合网站,已在档案里标注。

指引上调幅度是个好用的量化门槛。SNOW 年初指引 27%,两次上调后 36%,多了 9 个点;DDOG 从 18-20% 调到约 30%,多了 10-12 个点;CRWD 净新增 ARR 增速指引多了 11.5 个点。这些公司的指引一向保守 (SNOW 只按已观察到的消费做预测),所以上调幅度越大,说明真实需求越超出它们自己的模型。

SNOW CFO:指引上调最大的来源是 CoCo,而且我们只按已观察到的消费做预测
Yeah. Thanks, Sridhar. I'll unpack that a little on terms of impact. And so, CoCo had the largest driver to the increase in our forecast. As a reminder, when we forecast we only forecast observed behavior. And as Sridhar mentioned, that just happened in the quarter. And so this quarter we had a very unique opportunity to layer CoCo in the model, and that's reflected throughout the remainder of the year. We also saw acceleration in our core business, and that informs our outlook as well. And so there's no change to our guidance philosophy where 3% we view as a really strong beat.
2026-05-27 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Brian Robins · 2026-05-28-corrected-transcript-snowflake-inc-snow-us-q1-2027-earnings-call-27-may-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L191
发言人背景:Snowflake CFO (现任)
CRWD CFO:FY27 净新增 ARR 增速指引两个季度上调 1,150bp
Yeah. I think, Brian, the numbers back it up. Look, you start with the record Q3 pipeline. So, that prompted us to raise our full-year guidance by an additional 630 basis points. That means we moved our FY 2027 net new ARR growth rate from 27.7% at the end of last quarter to 34% this quarter. When compared to our initial guide for the year, we raised the growth rate 1,150 basis points or $116 million in just two quarters. That talks to the durability of the things that George talked.
2026-08-26 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Burt Podbere · 2026-08-26-corrected-transcript-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-26-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L268
发言人背景:CrowdStrike CFO(现任)
DDOG CFO:1Q26 环比新增收入创 Q1 纪录,老客户用量增长是 2022 年以来最强
Thanks, Olivier. This was a very strong quarter for Datadog. Our Q1 revenue was $1.01 billion, up 32% year-over-year. Our 6% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth is the highest for Q1 since 2022, and our $53 million quarter-over-quarter revenue added is the highest ever for Q1. That included the strongest quarter of sequential usage growth from existing customers since the first quarter of 2022. We also delivered an all-time record for sequential ARR added to the quarter. ARR growth accelerated in each month of Q1, and we see a continuation of these healthy growth trends in April. We also achieved strong new logo bookings. New logo annualized bookings, set a new all-time record by a significant margin and more than doubled versus a year-ago quarter. These included wins in Observability and included some of our newer products like security, data observability and Flex Logs. And our new logo average land size also set a record and more than doubled year-over-year as we continue to land larger deals. Revenue growth accelerated with our broad base of customers, excluding the AI natives to mid-20s percent year-over-year, up from 23% last quarter and 19% in the year-ago quarter. We saw robust growth across our customer base with broad-based strength across customer size, spending bands and industries. Meanwhile, our AI native customer growth continues to significantly outpace the rest of the business. This group continues to diversify and grow, including 22 customers spending more than $1 million annually and five spending more than $10 million annually. This group includes the leading companies and foundational models, code-gen tools, and vertical specific AI solutions. Next, regarding our retention metrics, our trailing 12-month net revenue retention percentage was in the low 120% percent, up from about 120 last quarter, and our trailing 12-month gross retention percentage remains in the mid-to-high 90s. Now moving on to our financial results. Billings were $1.03 billion, up 37% year-over-year, and remaining performance obligations, or RPO, was $3.48 billion, up 51% year-over-year, with current RPO growing in the mid-40s percent year-over-year. RPO duration increased year-over-year as the mix of multi-year deals increased in Q1.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · David Obstler · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-8-00-am-et.md L114
发言人背景:Datadog CFO (管理层)

加速不靠一个 AI 大客户

市场一开始怀疑这些加速只是 OpenAI 一个客户在烧钱。DDOG 和 SNOW 都正面回应过,数字站得住,这一点让反弹持续下去。

  • DDOG:非 AI 客户的增速从 19% 加速到 23%、mid-20s、high-20s。最大客户 (市场普遍认为是 OpenAI) 从 3Q26 开始减少用量,股价在 2Q 财报后一天跌了 19%;CEO 说剔除它增速"基本一样"。11 月的 Q3 是第一次检验
  • SNOW:CEO 说 AI 产品贡献了大约一半的加速,另一半来自核心平台和迁移
  • CRWD:一线销售说 AI 安全是新增预算,不是从端点预算里挪的 (前员工的观察,不是公司数据)
DDOG CEO:非 AI 客户的增速也在加速,从 19% 到 23% 再到 mid-20s
Thanks, Yuka, and thank you all for joining us to go over a very strong start to 2026. Let me begin with this quarter's business drivers. I'm very pleased to say that our teams executed very well and delivered revenue growth of 32% year-over-year accelerating from 29% last quarter, and 25% in the year-ago quarter. We showed broad based acceleration of revenue growth across cohorts including both our AI, and non-AI customers. Our AI native customers' cohort continued to grow and diversify rapidly both in the number of customers we serve, and the scale of those customers. And, this quarter included new land deals with two of the world's biggest AI research teams, helping them improve, and optimize their training workflows. I'll talk more about that in a bit. Even more impressive was the growth in our non-AI customers. Non-AI customer revenue growth accelerated again this quarter to mid-20% year-over-year, up from 23% last quarter, and 19% in a year-ago quarter. We think this is a sign of strong continued cloud migration, greater adoption of our products, and customers of all kinds accelerating their use of AI. Finally, churn has remained low with gross revenue retention stable in the mid-to-high 90s highlighting the mission critical nature of our platform for our customers.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-8-00-am-et.md L31
发言人背景:Datadog 联合创始人兼 CEO (管理层)
DDOG CEO:剔除最大客户,增速基本一样;其余业务已经连续五个季度加速
Yeah. The last thing I will say because I know so it's on people's minds, is if you back out our largest customer from our growth, you get pretty much the same growth rate, as the rest of the business has been accelerating very steadily. Actually we've seen, I think now five quarters of continuous acceleration from the rest of the business. And we feel very good about the – what we see in the market.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-08-06-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-8-00-am-et.md L202
发言人背景:Datadog CEO (管理层)
SNOW CEO:AI 产品贡献了大约一半的加速,另一半是核心平台和更快的迁移
I would roughly call it even, our AI products which is a pretty broad swath at this point. Absolutely, it's CoCo and CoWork, but it's also things like AI functions that make data operations proceed at an impressive scale, or even newer products like the AI Gateway. They contributed approximately half of the acceleration that we are seeing. But there are a lot of other products that are also demonstrating robust growth. And Brian touched on some of them. Whether it's Notebooks or applications written in Streamlit or React that are deployed into Snowflake and, of course, migrations themselves going faster. I have talked pretty much in every single earnings call over the past six quarters about migrations, and that is an area where we continue to get faster and faster. And some of the recent advances, both in models and harnesses, are letting us run long-duration tasks of a scale and complexity that we haven't been able to do before. And the rate at which workloads are coming onto Snowflake is also an important factor. And one anecdotal example that a big network equipment manufacturer is doing a Teradata migration in less than three quarters this year, and this is something that would have taken probably two to three years in any previous time. So, these are some of the things that are contributing to our acceleration and beat.
2026-09-02 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Sridhar Ramaswamy · 2026-09-02-corrected-transcript-snowflake-inc-snow-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-2-september-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L219
发言人背景:Snowflake CEO (现任)
CRWD 前大客户销售:AI 安全只能是新预算,身份、云、端点的钱挪不走
That's a great question. So identity, cloud, and endpoint, they're not going anywhere. You can't just shift the spending and neglect those items. So in my opinion this has to be new budget that companies have to find, create, etc. Because this is a new vector of attack, this isn't something we've dealt with in the past.
2026-09-01 · GuidePoint 专家访谈 · Konstantin Shostakovich · 2026-09-01-crowdstrike-latest-quarter-and-the-ai-security-demand-surge-from-a-frontline-strategic-accounts-view.md L251
发言人背景:前 CrowdStrike 西区战略大客户云安全销售专家,已离职(GuidePoint 标注视角为 Reseller);一线销售视角,样本局限于其覆盖的大客户

计量的东西是自己的

赢家收钱的是自己的东西:DDOG 的遥测平台、NET 的全球网络、SNOW 的数据和计算引擎、CRWD 的传感器。AI 收入里转卖模型 token 的部分越大,毛利率越往下走,这是要盯的成本。

  • SNOW:CFO 在 5 月承认 AI 产品毛利更低,当时说全年产品毛利率保持 75%;一个季度后指引降到 74%
  • NET:毛利率从 77.6% (Q4'24) 降到 73% 左右;CEO 明确拒绝"出租 GPU"这种生意,说那是"bad business"
  • 对照:seat 公司的 AI 层大多跑在第三方模型上。NOW 订阅毛利率指引降到 81%,ADBE 毛利率同比降约 100bp,MNDY 从 90% 降到 89%
NET CEO:不做卖算力的生意,我们卖的是"完成的工作"
Sure, Patrick. So I think not all revenue is created equal. And if you're selling what is just commodity compute, if you're basically letting a AI company use your balance sheet and your credit rating in order to buy servers that are the same as everybody else's servers, then like that's just not attractive business for us. And so I think that we're very disciplined. It's not that we don't get asked. But I don't think that's particularly interesting for us. I will say that we have a lot of interaction with the largest AI providers that are out there. And they're – again, they're all customers of ours. And so I think that it's – that you could imagine in ways where – that we would find something that where we could actually be a bigger and bigger player in providing the services to power more and more of the serious AI players that are out there in more meaningful and deep ways. But ultimately, like, we're not going to do that just selling commodity hardware because that, again, is bad business for us. I think the other thing that's different about us is that we've just always focused on how we can squeeze as much out of every CapEx dollar as possible. And so how is it that we can, not just throw money at a problem, but actually say how do we get more utilization out of that? And so our team is constantly trying to figure out how can you get more inference, how can you get more CPU, how can you get more out of the memory or storage that we have in every box that we have. And I think that that's just a very different attitude than you see elsewhere. And so, again, we know what the typical kind of inference loads are at the hyperscalers and their GPU utilization. And it's super low. And that's not the hyperscalers fault. It's that what they're selling is just a box and it's up to the customers in order to actually maximize the utilization. And customers often don't have the diversity of traffic or the ability to really schedule things in order to get the highest possible utilization. And so if we can, and in some cases, get 10 times as much utilization out of every CapEx dollar, then we can play these games and continue to grow revenue, but it's really high-quality revenue and it's revenue that doesn't require us to just throw money at it. Again, I think it's worth repeating things that somebody has said before, which is we're just in a very different business than the hyperscalers. The hyperscalers, the traditional first-generation cloud, are in the business of buying a server and then trying to sell it back, lease it back and get 5 turns of revenue off of it. We are in a very different business, where we're selling actually work getting done. And then instead of it being up to the customer to get as much out of the server as possible, we need to do the work to get as much out of the underlying equipment as possible and build the scheduling and efficiency and everything else that's out there. And I think that that is fundamentally the difference in our business and why like I don't think we want to get into the business of renting servers because, over time, it's a commodity business and it's not very attractive.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Matthew Prince · 2026-08-07-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L466
发言人背景:Cloudflare 联合创始人兼 CEO(现任)
SNOW CFO:AI 产品毛利率低于核心平台
Yeah. Karl, thanks for the question. You're absolutely right. Our AI products have a lower gross margin than our core platform. The one thing that we want to do with our AI products when we launch a new product like CoCo is make sure that we develop a great product, that we get massive adoption, and we've seen really good adoption with CoCo. We're up to roughly about – a little over 7,000 accounts have adopted CoCo. With that said, we're offsetting that and keeping the same product gross margin at 75% for the full year, and lower bandwidth costs, i.e., I talked about the AWS contract, and so we're offsetting it there. So that's how we're able to do that. We're committed to find efficiency to be able to maintain that 75% gross margin.
2026-05-27 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Brian Robins · 2026-05-28-corrected-transcript-snowflake-inc-snow-us-q1-2027-earnings-call-27-may-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L257
发言人背景:Snowflake CFO (现任)

一份财报完成反转

反转在价格上发生在一个点:一份大幅上调指引的财报。时间集中在 5 月到 8 月。

公司拐点那次财报次日股价之前的坏消息
DDOG2026-05-07 1Q26:增速 32%,全年指引 25-27%+30%8/6 2Q 财报后最大客户减量,−19%;9-10 月管理层澄清后收复
SNOW2026-05-27 Q1 FY27:产品收入 34%,指引 27% → 31%,同时公布 5 年 $6B AWS 合同+36.5%2025-12 Q3 FY26 后 −11%;2 月板块抛售 3 天约 −18%
NET2026-08-06 Q2'26:增速 36%盘前约 +15-16%5/8 Q1 财报后 −24% (增速 33.5% 持平,毛利率掉到 72.8%)
CRWD2026-08-26 Q2 FY27:净新增 ARR +51%+20.5%2/20 Anthropic 发布 Claude Code Security,两天跌约 17%
MDB2026-05-28 Q1 FY276/1 +18%,8 月 +45%9/1 Atlas 28.9% 没过买方 30% 的门槛,−13%;9/28 CEO 去 Meta,−18%

股价反应来自 IBKR 日线和 TMTB (Substack) 当日摘要。NET 8/6 的收盘涨幅没有查到。

最重要的教训:加速在低点前就看得见

四家里三家在 4 月低点之前的那份财报就已经加速了,但股价跟着板块又跌了 14-28%。那份财报当周买入,持有到现在,赚 52-113%。

Ticker财报日那份财报已经写着什么财报当周收盘之后的周低点再跌到现在
SNOW2026-02-25产品收入 30%,CoCo 2/5 GA;但 FY27 指引只给 27%$168$121 (2026-04-06)-28%+87%
DDOG2026-02-10收入 29%,非 AI 客户 23% (一年前 19%)$125$105 (2026-04-06)-16%+108%
NET2026-02-10收入 33.6%,一年前 27%$196$167 (2026-04-06)-15%+52%
CRWD2026-03-03净新增 ARR +47%,ARR 24%$107$92 (2026-03-23)-14%+113%

这说明两件事。第一,市场在 2-4 月没有区分"按人头收费"和"按用量收费",把所有软件股一起卖。第二,加速的数字是公开的,任何人在 2 月都能看到;需要的是一个框架告诉你哪些数字重要,以及能承受买入后再跌 15-30% 的耐心。

SNOW 是例外:2 月那份财报只加速了 1 个点 (29% → 30%),FY27 指引只给 27%,看起来在减速。它的信号要等到 5 月 CoCo 进入模型才出来。所以第 2 条不能只看一个季度。

价格是 IBKR 周收盘价;"到现在" 用 10 月 19 日当周的最新收盘。CRWD 按拆股调整。

反例:MDB、seat 股、TEAM

MDB 有第 1 条 (按用量收费),没有第 2 条 (Atlas 不加速)。TEAM 和 seat 大盘股两条都没有。

MDB:收费单位对,增速没动

MDB 卖文档型数据库,Atlas 是托管云服务,按用量收费,占收入约 75%。它在 2025 年 8 月就先涨过一轮 (Q2 FY26 周涨 44%),2026 年 5 月又跟着消费型股票反弹,8 月单月涨 45%,8/24 当周创下 $473 的高点。但 9 月 1 日 Q2 FY27 的 Atlas 增速 28.9%,没过买方期待的 30%,次日跌 13%;9 月 28 日 CEO CJ Desai 辞职去 Meta 做首席企业平台官,前 CEO Dev Ittycheria 回来做临时 CEO,又跌 18%。

MDB CFO:Atlas 连续第五个季度增长约 29%;AI 有一些贡献,但还小
So, as we talked about, we feel very good about the Atlas business. And what we look at is this was the fifth straight quarter of approximately 29% year-over-year growth, very consistent. We've increased the full-year guidance by 300 basis points from the previous guide, and that is also buttressed by a record net new $127 million net new Atlas dollars, as well as the increase in the net ARR expansion rate, and now Atlas is almost a $2.3 billion run rate. So as we look forward, we continue to expect really good growth from our larger enterprise customers, especially in the US. We started to see some benefit from AI even though it's small, but we are excited about the momentum, and we do expect consumption to continue to be consistent with what we've seen during the first half of the year.
2026-09-01 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Michael Berry · 2026-09-01-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-1-september-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L228
发言人背景:MongoDB CFO
MDB CFO 在 Investor Day:AI 原生客户只占 Atlas 3-5%,三年框架没计入企业 AI 的上行
Sure. So, as we look at Atlas, and we've said it multiple times in the last several quarters, we continue to feel very good about the Atlas business. Technically, going from 3% to 5%, the 3% was a big thing, Alex. It allowed us to say, hey, what do we really see call it in the near term? And we've seen all the growth that has been driven by the move-up market, which has been significant, that as we look at the geo expansion, the new products, as well as the platform and that is going to over time hopefully start to monetize. Again, good usage, but it needs to monetize more as we look at that. And then of course, you have the AI natives. So underneath the covers, I mean, look at the AI natives are 3% to 5%. It means the core by definition as a percentage continues to call it slow down but the dollars continue to grow. And we look at that over the next three years and we feel very good about growth in both of those and we really haven't baked in a lot of upside for enterprise AI. It's the thing we talk to you, folks, the most about in the question earlier on when is that going to pick up. And at some point, keep in mind AMP is great. Dev did a great job of through that. We also want sales to be able to sell it. That's going to help both self-manage in Atlas, but we do expect growth there. So, the confidence is in the go-to-market engine, the growth we see in our larger customers, the new product and continued growth in AI natives.
2026-09-29 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Michael Berry · 2026-09-30-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-investor-day-29-september-2026-11-00-am-et.md L1478
发言人背景:MongoDB CFO
渠道商 (5 月):MongoDB 上的 AI 项目没有预期多,向量数据库层看不出优势
It was, but our leadership had pushed us to that 15% mark. It's what we're hoping for, but we did not see as much AI work from a MongoDB perspective as what we were hoping for, as well as the other core differentiator that we didn't see as much of a competitive advantage for MongoDB when it came to selecting your vector database layer. And so I think one of the things that we're hoping for is more of that differentiation from MongoDB to say why do we need to use you as our vector DB of choice? And what are you offering in addition from an AI tool perspective that would separate you from the pack? And so unfortunately, although we had a lot of buzz and evaluations of MongoDB, we just didn't have as much pull-through that said, hey, we're definitely going the MongoDB route. That is the thing that we're seeing with MongoDB. There's a very loyal user base to MongoDB because it's been around for, you know, over 15 years, and that loyal MongoDB base is the one that will say yes, we're doing it. But if you don't have that, then it's a very crowded field and then it's a pick of choice of hey, pick a flavor and we're moving forward with that. That's what I'm seeing in the field from a MongoDB perspective.
2026-05-20(访谈) · GuidePoint 专家访谈 · Felix Chen · 2026-05-20-snowflake-and-mongodb-may-2026-channel-check-with-a-vp-of-data-and-ai.md L238
发言人背景:Launch Consulting Group VP of Data and AI(现任,咨询/实施渠道方);视角局限:只代表一家渠道商的项目样本,数字是其自身 MDB 业务增速而非 MDB 整体

seat 大盘股:AI 收入在长,但太小,主营在减速

公司增速走势AI 收入现价 vs 前高
CRM有机约 6-7% (报告 11% 含 Informatica)Agentforce ARR $1.5B,约收入 3%-33%
NOW订阅 cc 23%,有机约 19%AI ACV 超 $1B;渠道调研说真实 AI 用量只占新 ACV 6-12%-35%
WDAY14% → 13% → FY28 目标约 11%AI SKU ARR 近 $600M-29%
HUBScc 18% → 17% → 15%;NRR 103% → 102%credits 用量在涨,但主动降价-71%
ADBEARR 增速 12.5% → 11.2%;净新增 ARR 同比约 −39%AI-first ARR $650M+,约 ARR 2.4%-55%
MNDY30% → 22% → 指引 16-17%;裁员约 20%AI ARR 占净新增 ARR 17%-71%
WDAY CFO:FY28 订阅收入增速目标约 11%,等于今年下半年的增速
With that in mind and ahead of our upcoming Financial Analyst Day, I'd like to provide some early context for how we're thinking about next year. Our current target for FY 2028 subscription revenue growth is consistent with our expected second half FY 2027 growth rate of approximately 11%. We also see potential upside across new products, including Sana Enterprise, Workday Extend with Data Cloud, and our AI agents, all of which are seeing great early demand. In addition, we expect our non-GAAP operating margin to expand by at least 2 percentage points next year.
2026-08-27 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Zane Rowe · 2026-08-27-corrected-transcript-workday-inc-wday-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-27-august-2026-4-30-pm-et.md L240
发言人背景:Workday CFO (现任)
HubSpot CEO:中小企业被不可预测的 AI 成本挤压预算,出现降级压力
Let me be direct about what happened. April got off to a slow start, and the quarter we expected did not fully materialize. Two factors drove the headwinds. The first was deliberate. As we discussed last quarter, customers adopting AI want proof of value before they commit, and predictability in what it costs. So in April, we leaned into those trends and made changes across product, pricing and go-to-market. On the product side, we introduced trials so customers can turn on agents and AIO in their own environment with their data for their workflows. The goal was simple, let customers experience real outcomes before they buy. We knew this would create some near-term headwinds by extending the buying process, but we believe it's the right long-term trade-off. Lowering the barrier to adoption and building customer confidence and outcomes will ultimately accelerate AI adoption. So far, this approach has worked best with upmarket customers, where our teams and partners provide the support needed to make the trials successful. Our focus is to scale that experience so every customer can adopt AI with the same confidence. On pricing, predictability has become a defining theme in AI adoption. Businesses have been hit with unpredictable token costs, and they want pricing that is transparent and tied to value. In response, we introduced outcome based pricing for several of our HubSpot agents, lowered entry price points and are providing customers clear visibility and control over usage and spend, including the ability to set thresholds that fit their budget. The second factor was a shift in the demand environment in Q2 with increased budget sensitivity. Businesses want greater confidence that their investments will position them for the AI platform shift. As a result, purchase decisions are facing greater scrutiny, buying committees are larger and more deals require C-suite and board approval, leading to longer sales cycles. For existing customers, unpredictable AI costs across the broader landscape are impacting budgets, leading to budget optimization and downgrade pressure.
2026-08-05 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Yamini Rangan · 2026-08-05-raw-transcript-hubspot-inc-hubs-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-5-august-2026-4-30-pm-et.md L39
发言人背景:HubSpot CEO (现任);管理层视角
Funda AI 渠道调研:Now Assist 真实用量环比持平甚至略降,AI 用量只占新 ACV 6-12%
The gap between management’s AI numbers and real usage in our channel feedback persists: checks show 2Q Now Assist real usage flat to slightly worse vs. 1Q, and customers’ AI-driven consumption at only 6-12% of new ACV (management’s broad definition puts it at 40-50%); the AI ACV expansion is driven more by pricing bundling and SKU restructuring, and metrics like the 9x growth in agentic AI customers come off very low bases.
2026-07-23 · Substack · Funda AI 研究团队 · 2026-07-23-review-now-2q26-pull-forward-expected-restrained-full-year-guide.md L118
发言人背景:Funda AI (fundaai@substack.com) Substack 研究,基于渠道调研 (MSP/经销商) 与业绩会;独立研究机构,非公司人员;渠道样本有限,可能偏北美/欧洲经销商视角

TEAM

TEAM 按 seat 收费,过去一年的加速主要来自上云迁移、Teamwork Collection 打包和每年 7-10% 的提价,不是 AI 带来的 seat 加速 (见 TEAM seats thesis)。AI 带来的工作量 (MCP 调用一个季度 +400%) 要靠 12 月才开始收的 Rovo credits 变现。按这个框架,TEAM 第 1 条不通过,第 2 条的加速来源不对。

用来选股:筛选框架

把五条变成筛选流程。前四条决定"值不值得研究",第五条和你的价值标准决定"什么时候买"。

筛选流程

步骤问题通过标准淘汰标准
1 收费单位AI 让收费单位变多还是变少按数据、请求、计算、端点、交易、身份收费,或者 seat 外有已经计价的用量层且在长主营按 seat 或员工数,AI 收入只占几个百分点
2 已报出的加速增速是不是连续 ≥2 个季度加速,指引有没有上调连续两季加速;全年指引比年初上调 ≥3 个点增速持平或减速,不管故事多好 (MDB 是例子)
3 分散度剔除最大客户或 AI 原生客户后还加速吗公司披露非 AI 或剔除最大客户的增速,且在加速加速只来自一两个前沿实验室
4 自有计量计量的东西是不是自己的平台、网络、数据是自己的;毛利率降幅可控 (≤3-4 个点)主要转卖模型 token,毛利率一路往下
5 价格板块跌的时候,它有没有被一起打下来1-2 条成立,股价从高点跌 30% 以上—
6 你的价值标准SBC 调整后 FCF、IRR按 primer 的方法算,买点内才买—

套用到我们关注的名字 (初步,部分是推断)

名字收费单位1 单位2 加速3 分散4 自有价值结论
DDOG / NET / SNOW / CRWD见上✓✓✓✓✗好公司,现价贵。DDOG 买点 $150-170 (primer)
MDBAtlas 用量✓✗ Atlas 29% 持平—✓约 8.5x 收入;FCF−SBC 约 $0.09B,回购 $0.41B最值得盯的候选。Atlas 过 30% 就满足第 2 条;12 月 Q3 是检验
FSLY流量用量✓待看 Q3 (≥$192M)前 10 客户占 37%✓FCF−SBC ≈ 0不满足第 3 条和价值标准 (见 FSLY primer)
ESTC资源用量 (推断)大概率 ✓未核对未核对大概率 ✓未核对值得按五条深挖
TWLO消息和调用量 (推断)大概率 ✓未核对未核对部分 (运营商成本)未核对值得按五条深挖
ADYEN交易量✓ (agent 下单也是交易)未核对未核对✓未核对值得按五条深挖
TEAMseat✗加速来源是迁移和提价—✓现价 $215 > 买点不通过;观察 Rovo credits 收入
ZS用户数✗ (推断)未核对—✓未核对第 1 条大概率不通过,股价仍在前高下方 36%
GTLBseat✗————不通过

"未核对" 表示这次没有研究,只按商业模式判断收费单位。MDB、FSLY、TEAM 的数据来自本次研究和之前的 primer。这张表是筛选的起点,不是买卖建议。

和你的价值标准的冲突

四家赢家都是你说的"好公司",但没有一家通过"便宜"这一关:

TickerTTM FCFTTM SBCFCF − SBC估值 (粗算)现价
SNOW$1.20B$1.64B≈ −$0.45BEV/TTM 收入约 20x$315
NET$0.32B$0.52B≈ −$0.21BEV/NTM 收入约 30x$298
DDOG$1.07B$0.82B≈ +$0.25B (收入 6%)约 17-19x CY27 收入$260
CRWD$1.52B$1.31B≈ +$0.21B (收入 4%)EV/NTM 收入约 35x$228
MDB$0.65B$0.56B≈ +$0.09B,另回购 $0.41BEV/FY27 收入约 8.5x$349

FCF、SBC 是公司披露的季度数加总 (TTM 截至 2026 年 6 月或 7 月);估值是 subagent 用股本、现金和指引粗算的,不是一致预期,DDOG 用的是 Jefferies 的说法。SNOW 的 SBC 口径含相关雇主税。

这不是说框架没用。它告诉我们两件事:赢家在 2-4 月时 (DDOG 约 $105,SNOW 约 $121) 估值只有现在的一半上下,那才是"好公司 + 预期差 + 价格"同时满足的时刻;下一次板块被一起卖的时候,要提前准备好一张已经通过 1-4 条的名单。MDB 是现在最接近这个状态的名字。

附:逐家档案

每家公司的研究底稿:做什么、怎么收费、为什么跌、怎么反转、全部原文和发言人背景、数据问题。点开看。

赢家 DDOG · 现价 vs 前高 +36% 12 条原文

做什么:Datadog 卖云上应用的'监控+排障+安全'SaaS 平台:把客户服务器/容器/GPU 的指标(metrics)、日志(logs)、调用链(traces)、前端用户会话、安全信号收进一个平台,出问题时告警、定位、修复(现在加了 Bits AI agent 自动排查)。买家是工程/DevOps/SRE/安全团队,从初创公司到 F500 银行、超大规模云厂商的 AI 实验室都有;约 33,400 家客户,ARR>$10 万的 4,720 家贡献约 91% ARR (2Q26)。

怎么收费:用量(consumption)为主,叠加年度/多年承诺(commit+drawdown);少量按主机/按产品包。公司披露:按数据量/主机/span/会话/调查次数等计量,大客户签年度及以上承诺、超出部分按用量付费,按量阶梯定价。CEO 原话'we're usage based then it doesn't really matter where the user is coming from'(人或 agent 都计费)。CFO 2Q26: 'most of our enterprise customers ... have annual plus and then the pricing is generally volume-based pricing ... we have that level of commitment ... then there's usage'。Bits AI 正改为 'AI credits' 计价(2Q26)。专家说法(前欧洲销售):Bits AI 早期定价 US$500/月含 20 次完成的调查。

为什么跌:2025 年两段:2025-02 至 2025-04 (约 $150→低点 $81.6,2025-04-07 当周);主跌段 2025-11 高点 $201.69 (2025-11-10 当周,3Q25 业绩后) → 2026-03-02 当周低点 $98.01,跌约 51%。2026-02-23 时最大回撤 48.6% (TIKR)。 (1) 最大客户 OpenAI 集中度:2025-07 Guggenheim 降级至 Sell(PT $105),估 OpenAI 在 DDOG 的 ARR 从 2Q25 末约 $2.4 亿降到 4Q25 约 $0.8 亿,因其转向更便宜的自建/替代方案(卖方说法);之后市场普遍认为 OpenAI 核心监控迁往 Chronosphere(现属 PANW),担心 2026 下半年增长断崖。(2) 公司 2026-02-10 给出的 FY26 收入指引仅 +18-20% (FY25 +28%),并假设'除最大客户外业务至少增长 20%',对最大客户做'very conservative'假设——市场读成大幅减速。(3) 软件板块整体 'AI 取代软件/压缩定价模式' 的估值压缩,以及 2026-03 宏观波动;Acecamp 汇总的卖方纪要指出即使 DDOG/DT/HUBS/TEAM 财报不错股价也下跌。(4) 对 AI 时代 observability 架构改变(高基数、OTel、开源/ClickHouse 自建)的担忧(专家说法)。注意:TIKR 文章认为'The business did not cause it'——下跌主要是估值/板块而非基本面恶化(推断与媒体观点)。

AI 怎么变成收入:AI 让被监控的东西变多变复杂:(a) AI-native 公司(大模型实验室、coding 工具、垂直 AI 应用)本身是高速增长的云原生客户,推理在生产环境的流量直接变成 metrics/logs/traces 用量;(b) 训练成为新市场——超大规模云厂商的超级智能实验室和 neo-labs 用 DDOG 做 GPU 监控/训练任务可观测性;(c) coding agent 让更多应用进入生产,agent 的每次 tool call/重试都要被 trace(Wolfe: trace 价格约为 metrics 2 倍),且 agent 调用的工具多是跑在 CPU 上的既有应用,带动基础设施监控;(d) 传统企业'为 AI 做准备'的上云与现代化推动非 AI 客户从 18-19% 加速到 high-20s;(e) 新 AI 产品(LLM/Agent Observability、Bits AI、MCP server、AI Guard、GPU monitoring)直接收费,Bits AI 改为 AI credits 计价。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:变多。计费单位是数据量/主机/span/会话/调查次数,不是人头;AI 应用和 agent 产生更多服务、更多 trace 和 tool call,CEO 明确说人或 agent 使用都一样计费,且 MCP 调用 2Q26 较 4Q25 增 22 倍。反向风险:(1) 大客户在用量大到一定程度后自建或改用更便宜的方案(OpenAI→Chronosphere,PANW 称 Q4 净新增 ARR 含'nine-figure'级 LLM 客户迁移);(2) Bits AI 自动化可能减少人工排查,但公司称使用 Bits 的客户反而用更多产品。 计量的东西是不是自己的:是自己的:计量的是客户送入 DDOG 自有 SaaS 平台的遥测数据与在其平台上运行的分析/agent。底层跑在公有云上(成本在 COGS/OpEx 里,capex+资本化软件约占收入 4-5%),但不是转卖云资源;毛利率约 80%。 产出能不能数:能计数:span、日志 GB、主机数、会话数、调查次数、MCP 调用次数均可计量,公司也定期披露这些 AI 用量倍数。

时间线

  • 2025-11-06 3Q25 业绩:收入 $886M +28%,AI-native 占收入 12% (2Q25 11%),RPO $2.79B +53%,账单 $893M +30%;非 AI 客户增速 20%(据 4Q25 电话会回溯)。 股价:当周收盘 $162.81→$191.24 (约 +17%),随后 11 月创 $201.69 高点 (IBKR 周线)
  • 2026-02-10 4Q25 业绩 + FY26 指引:收入 $953M +29% (3Q25 +28%),非 AI 增速 20%→23%,RPO $3.46B +52%,cRPO ~+40%,账单 $1.21B +34%;但 FY26 指引仅 $4.06-4.10B (+18-20%),对最大客户极保守。 股价:Yahoo 标题称业绩后上涨 8.4%;但当周 IBKR 周线开 $126.72 收 $115.66,之后至 3 月初探底 $98 —— 未能扭转板块下跌
  • 2026-05-07 1Q26 业绩 —— 真正的拐点:收入 $1.006B +32% (前季 +29%),季环比 +$53M 为 Q1 新高;非 AI 客户增速升至 mid-20s (前季 23%,去年 19%);NRR 回升至 low-120s;RPO $3.48B +51%,cRPO mid-40s;新 logo 年化签约创纪录且同比翻倍;拿下两家全球最大科技公司 AI 研究部门(7 位数与 8 位数年化)。2Q 指引 $1.07-1.08B (+29-31%) vs 卖方 $994M (+20%);FY26 指引由 $4.06-4.10B 上调至 $4.30-4.34B (+25-27%),上调幅度大于 1Q beat,暗示下半年强劲、OpenAI 断崖担忧缓解。 股价:DDOG +28% 开盘、+30% 收盘 (TMTB);当周 $140.53→$200.16
  • 2026-08-06 2Q26 业绩 —— 基本面继续加速但股价回调:收入 $1.121B +36% (前季 +32%),季环比 +$115M 创纪录;非 AI 客户增速升至 high-20s;AI 客户 750 家,>$1M 的 31 家、>$10M 的 8 家;新客户贡献同比增长的约 30% (1Q 25%);FY26 指引上调至 $4.45-4.47B (+30%)。但 3Q 指引 $1.135-1.145B (+28-29%) 低于买方 ~31% 预期,原因是最大客户(九位数续约的'leading AI company')自 3Q 起用量下降,公司将其指引完全去风险化(只计入合同承诺)。 股价:DDOG -16%~-19% (TMTB 早盘 -16/-18%,收盘 -19%);此前自 1Q 业绩以来已涨 83% (Funda),仓位拥挤
  • 2026-09-10 ~ 2026-10 会议季:管理层澄清最大客户 + 卖方上调目标价:CFO 在高盛会议称最大客户已续约、'spending above the commitment',指引只计入承诺下限;Truist 称 IR 表示 4Q 假设基于合同最低用量而 3Q 跟踪高于底线;Wolfe 上调 PT 至 $340,称 agent 使 tracing 用量增加(trace 价格约为 metrics 2 倍)。 股价:9 月底股价回到 $277-300 区间,周线高点 $300.68 (2026-10-05 当周);2026-10-19 约 $261,YTD +92% (IBKR)

空方论点

  • 最大客户(OpenAI)从 3Q26 起降用量,2027 年集中度/优化 overhang;Funda 认为 Chronosphere 价格低 30-40% 正在 OpenAI 内部抢份额;PANW 管理层称其 Q4 净新增 ARR 含'nine-figure'级 LLM 客户从'incumbent vendor'迁往 Chronosphere。
  • Anthropic 等第二梯队 AI 客户也可能走同样的路(Funda 引专家:Anthropic 底层也用 ClickHouse,长期依赖轨迹可能类似 OpenAI);Funda 认为 Anthropic 在 DDOG 的用量增长 2Q26 可能见顶。
  • 估值:Jefferies 认为约 19x CY27 收入,风险收益不吸引 (Hold, PT $300);2Q26 业绩后因仓位拥挤跌 19%。
  • 用量模式在客户优化周期中波动大(2022-23 先例);Bernstein 看到 4Q 非 AI 云负载走软风险(AWS 网站数据)。
  • Bits AI 变现仍早:Funda 调研的大客户称 30-40% 情况答不出、ROI 算不过来;传统企业付费率 <2%。
  • LLM observability 被 Braintrust 等点状方案切走、OTel/开源降低迁移成本、AI 预算挤占其他软件预算(专家说法)。
  • SBC 约占收入 21%,无回购,每年稀释约 3%;GAAP 营业利润几乎为零(2Q26 $5.5M)。
  • 毛利率下滑至 79.6% (2Q26),可能与给大客户折扣、AI 投入有关。

原文

拐点季:增速 25%→29%→32%,且公司首次强调非 AI 客户也在加速(19%→23%→mid-20s),反驳'只是 OpenAI/AI 泡沫'的看法。
Thanks, Yuka, and thank you all for joining us to go over a very strong start to 2026. Let me begin with this quarter's business drivers. I'm very pleased to say that our teams executed very well and delivered revenue growth of 32% year-over-year accelerating from 29% last quarter, and 25% in the year-ago quarter. We showed broad based acceleration of revenue growth across cohorts including both our AI, and non-AI customers. Our AI native customers' cohort continued to grow and diversify rapidly both in the number of customers we serve, and the scale of those customers. And, this quarter included new land deals with two of the world's biggest AI research teams, helping them improve, and optimize their training workflows. I'll talk more about that in a bit. Even more impressive was the growth in our non-AI customers. Non-AI customer revenue growth accelerated again this quarter to mid-20% year-over-year, up from 23% last quarter, and 19% in a year-ago quarter. We think this is a sign of strong continued cloud migration, greater adoption of our products, and customers of all kinds accelerating their use of AI. Finally, churn has remained low with gross revenue retention stable in the mid-to-high 90s highlighting the mission critical nature of our platform for our customers.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-8-00-am-et.md L31
发言人背景:Datadog 联合创始人兼 CEO (管理层)
给出 1Q26 环比美元增量、用量增长、新 logo 签约、AI-native 大客户数、NRR 回升、RPO +51% 等核心可验证数字。
Thanks, Olivier. This was a very strong quarter for Datadog. Our Q1 revenue was $1.01 billion, up 32% year-over-year. Our 6% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth is the highest for Q1 since 2022, and our $53 million quarter-over-quarter revenue added is the highest ever for Q1. That included the strongest quarter of sequential usage growth from existing customers since the first quarter of 2022. We also delivered an all-time record for sequential ARR added to the quarter. ARR growth accelerated in each month of Q1, and we see a continuation of these healthy growth trends in April. We also achieved strong new logo bookings. New logo annualized bookings, set a new all-time record by a significant margin and more than doubled versus a year-ago quarter. These included wins in Observability and included some of our newer products like security, data observability and Flex Logs. And our new logo average land size also set a record and more than doubled year-over-year as we continue to land larger deals. Revenue growth accelerated with our broad base of customers, excluding the AI natives to mid-20s percent year-over-year, up from 23% last quarter and 19% in the year-ago quarter. We saw robust growth across our customer base with broad-based strength across customer size, spending bands and industries. Meanwhile, our AI native customer growth continues to significantly outpace the rest of the business. This group continues to diversify and grow, including 22 customers spending more than $1 million annually and five spending more than $10 million annually. This group includes the leading companies and foundational models, code-gen tools, and vertical specific AI solutions. Next, regarding our retention metrics, our trailing 12-month net revenue retention percentage was in the low 120% percent, up from about 120 last quarter, and our trailing 12-month gross retention percentage remains in the mid-to-high 90s. Now moving on to our financial results. Billings were $1.03 billion, up 37% year-over-year, and remaining performance obligations, or RPO, was $3.48 billion, up 51% year-over-year, with current RPO growing in the mid-40s percent year-over-year. RPO duration increased year-over-year as the mix of multi-year deals increased in Q1.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · David Obstler · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-8-00-am-et.md L114
发言人背景:Datadog CFO (管理层)
直接回答'agent 取代人后 seat 怎么办':DDOG 按用量计费,人或 agent 使用都计费,这是它和 seat-based SaaS 的根本区别。
Yeah. Look, I think one thing I'd say is it's hard to tell what we're going to be in four or five years. If you had told me two years ago that most engineers would go back to coding in the console, I wouldn't have believed you. And yet, that's one of the winning modalities today. Look, as far as we're concerned, we don't care whether most of the usage is humans. Most of the usage is agents, our business model lends itself to it pretty well like we're usage based then it doesn't really matter where the user is coming from that perspective. The way we see trends from up right now is we see both a stratospheric increase of agent usage. So, we have a ton of usage on our MCP server. We see customers trying to automate a lot with their own agents, using our agents, using a combination of those. But we also see an increase of usage of the web interfaces by humans. So, right now, the two work hand in hand, and we keep developing and pushing on both fronts.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-8-00-am-et.md L203
发言人背景:Datadog CEO (管理层)
说明指引方法:对最大客户比其他客户打更大折扣——这是 FY26 指引从 18-20% 一路上调到 30% 的原因之一,也说明 beat 空间。
It's both. It's the same guidance we used, and we're being very explicit. For all the business except for this largest customers, we've always taken the drivers and discounted them. And for this particular customer, we took a higher degree of conservatism than the other part of the customer base and discounted it more. And we were, I think, in the remarks and you interpret it correct, very explicit. And you're correct. I wouldn't, give that much weight to the very specific word, we're deliberate but not all that deliberate. And similarly, both David and I have a raspy voice today, but there's no hidden meaning. But I will remind everybody that we did not change. So if the question also, I think you asked is did we change or is this a different methodology of both the overall and the large customer, then the guidance, the last quarter or the previous. The answer is no. It is the same methodology, and that we've had, so no change. But this has been what we've always been doing.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · David Obstler (CFO) 为主,中间有 Olivier Pomel 插话 · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-8-00-am-et.md L321
发言人背景:Datadog CFO / CEO (管理层);FactSet 稿未标注发言人切换,按内容推断
首次正式披露最大 AI 客户九位数续约但 3Q 起降用量——2Q26 后股价下跌 19% 的直接原因。
And finally, we signed a nine figure renewal with a leading AI company. This long time, very large customer uses 17 Datadog products to enable unified visibility on production workloads at a very large scale, albeit with a usage reduction starting in Q3, which we considered in our guidance and which David will speak to.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-08-06-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-8-00-am-et.md L110
发言人背景:Datadog CEO (管理层)
管理层主动把最大客户'完全去风险化',让其余业务的加速不被掩盖。
Yeah. So maybe I'll take this one. I think we – so overall, we as usual, we don't want to comment too much on any specific customer because we also don't really control what's happening with any specific customer. We wanted to be transparent about this on the call, because we did see a reduction in usage and we took the liberty to fully de-risk the guidance for the rest of the year with respect to that customer. And again, the reason for that is we don't control what's happening to a specific customer, but we do have a great amount of control on what's happening to everything else in the business. And the business is booming. And we don't want that to overshadow basically the acceleration we see pretty much everywhere else in the business. So as we mentioned on the call, we renewed the customer, it's a longtime customer who uses many of our products. But there's not a lot more we can share.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-08-06-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-8-00-am-et.md L192
发言人背景:Datadog CEO (管理层)
回答'剔除 OpenAI 增速多少':剔除最大客户后增速基本相同(约 36%),其余业务连续五季加速。
Yeah. The last thing I will say because I know so it's on people's minds, is if you back out our largest customer from our growth, you get pretty much the same growth rate, as the rest of the business has been accelerating very steadily. Actually we've seen, I think now five quarters of continuous acceleration from the rest of the business. And we feel very good about the – what we see in the market.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-08-06-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-8-00-am-et.md L202
发言人背景:Datadog CEO (管理层)
2Q26 季环比 +11%、+$115M 创纪录;非 AI 加速到 high-20s;AI 客户 750 家及 >$1M/$10M 客户数;新客户贡献 30% 增量。
Thanks, Olivier. Our Q2 revenue was $1.12 billion, up 36% year-over-year. Within that, our 11% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth is the highest since Q2, 2022. And our quarter-over-quarter revenue added of $115 million is a record by a significant margin. We continue to see robust usage growth from existing customers, as well as a strong ramp in our new customers. Revenue growth accelerated with our broad base of customers, excluding AI customers to the high-20s year-over-year, up from the mid-20s percent last quarter and 18% in the year ago quarter. We saw robust growth across our customer base with broad-based strength across customer size, spending bands and industries. Meanwhile, our AI customers continue to grow rapidly and diversify in the quarter. This 750 strong customer group includes a broad range of AI startups as it has in the past, but now also includes hyperscalers using Datadog for in-house AI labs. In Q2, this includes 31 customers spending more than $1 million annually, of which eight customers spent more than $10 million annually. We also achieved strong new logo dollar bookings with particular strength in enterprise, where new logo annualized bookings more than doubled from the year ago, and we are seeing new logos ramping faster and contributing more to revenue growth. The portion of our year-over-year revenue growth that relates to new customers was about 30% in Q2, up from 25% in Q1.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · David Obstler · 2026-08-06-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-8-00-am-et.md L136
发言人背景:Datadog CFO (管理层)
回应'Bits AI 自动化会不会减少消耗':公司称用 Bits 的客户用更多产品、更多用户,不是零和——但这是管理层说法,需用 AI credits 收入验证。
Well, look, if we provide more value to, we'll get more. As I was saying earlier in the call, like, we sell more software by helping customers make more money or save money or both. And I think if we can automate more and let them do more, we'll provide more value. That's as simple as that. I think the future observability is not just observing, it's fixing, it's not waking up people in the middle of the night because something broke, but fixing it for them, it's not letting people do a damage control on a security incident because an attacker is in, it's preventing the attacker from getting into start with by auto-remediating issues. And we're very, very busy building all of that. And we're super confident that this will yield great business outcomes for us in the end. And that's what we see from customers in the market. Like when they use Bits AI, they use more of our product, they deploy more of it, they create more dashboards and alerts and everything else. They have more users inside of our product, like, it's not a zero-sum game.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Olivier Pomel · 2026-08-06-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-8-00-am-et.md L351
发言人背景:Datadog CEO (管理层)
CFO 解释最大客户:签了承诺合同、曾远超承诺消费、续约并延长合同,指引只计入承诺下限;并称 DDOG 不是集中型公司。
I think when you look – step back and you look at our gross retention, means are you staying on Datadog or not, it tends to be, we said, in the upper 90s, with larger enterprise being at the high end of that. So, we don't retain every customer, but the vast majority of customers have been making the decision to use the Datadog platform. And in fact over time, as I mentioned, the trend has been that it is economic, priority-oriented to instead of building an observability platform yourself to put your scarce R&D dollars into your product and your business. So, that's been the weight of it. But it isn't the case all the time, and it also isn't 100% or 0%. Many customers are doing a combination. And what we said all along, which is that from our largest customer, is that we have commitment contracts, and that customer was growing rapidly and spending above the commitment. But we know that in certain customers, there'll be sort of a tradeoff between. And what we said in our last earnings call was that, that customer renewed with us, staying with Datadog, extending the contract. And the usage there has moved around relative to what they're doing. Sometimes it makes sense to hook up a database that doesn't have to be or a metric store, doesn't have to be real-time with Datadog and put the other work that has to be real time. So, we had some volatility. And what we decided to do, given the investor focus on that, is to de-risk our guidance by putting in our guidance only the commitment can't go below the commitment. But we've always said that's a fringe case. For the most part, our business is not about outsourcing the hyperscalers' observability. We're not a concentrated company. So, in a weighted, and you see that in our gross retention, the vast, vast majority of our customer base, given the gross retentions we're talking about, have stayed with Datadog. And the fact that the net retention has been increasing means that they have been putting more of their workloads on Datadog rather than less.
2026-09-10 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · David Obstler · 2026-09-10-corrected-transcript-datadog-inc-ddog-us-goldman-sachs-communacopia-technology-conference-10-september-2026-12-30-pm-et.md L103
发言人背景:Datadog CFO (管理层)
前员工认为承诺+drawdown 合同让 DDOG 对用量可预测,文化保守;但日志/trace 是客户最容易缩减的部分——用量模式在优化周期仍有风险。
I think it's a bit tricky. Datadog, again, like I said, they're pretty conservative in nature and in culture. They would never try and depict the future where it's going to be much higher than what they expect. They're usually on the conservative side of things. I think usage, it depends because, again, there are a lot of commitments and drawdown type of contracts. I think that they know their customer base. They know the trends, they are on top of that. I think, again, things like usually logs could be one of those things where people can easily send less or more and sometimes traces as well. Again, it's not like I have any proof or a data point, but they see and they have tools to predict and see how these things are trending or know ahead of time. Obviously, they need to report only once per quarter, not necessarily in the middle of the quarter or every month on these things. I think more or less, they're probably on the right direction. Again, if you're saying suddenly, there's going to be a financial crisis and companies will have to reduce budgets and pay less for cloud providers and OpenAI and those kind of things, then, yes, obviously, it will impact. They will also look into observability and start thing, "Okay, where can we save more or maybe pay less for a given amount of time," and we've seen that in previous waves as well.
2026-08-07 (Third Bridge 2026-08-19 发布) · ThirdBridge · Eyal Engel · 2026-08-19-datadog-barking-up-the-ai-tree-scaling-telemetry-product-flywheels-enterprise-moats.md L146
发言人背景:现任 Cyera 产品营销副总裁;前 Datadog 产品营销总监(在职五年多,负责 APM、软件交付、代码安全、LLM Observability 产品营销)。视角局限:市场/产品岗,非财务或销售岗,无内部预测数据,且已离职。
回应'AI 让客户自建 observability'的空头逻辑:大规模自建需要自己的模型,成本高——但 OpenAI 的例子说明头部 AI 客户有能力也有动力自建/换方案。
I think it's going to be expensive at scale. There's the traditional build vs buy argument, obviously, where building in-house is not really free. You still pay for a lot of infrastructure and you still pay for full-time employees. Even if AI doing that, someone needs to build it and maintain it, but cost could be the more significant thing here on that sense, especially at scale. If you want to do it efficiently, you need to build your own models probably and use a combination of different methods, which is small language models and large language models and industry-specific models, and building models in-house, that's a whole different thing. I think it's not just like building an application and using Claude or OpenAI because then the cost could really be very high, I think, at scale of telemetry, especially of large organisations.
2026-08-07 · ThirdBridge · Eyal Engel · 2026-08-19-datadog-barking-up-the-ai-tree-scaling-telemetry-product-flywheels-enterprise-moats.md L66
发言人背景:同上:现任 Cyera VP Product Marketing,前 Datadog 产品营销总监;非工程岗,对自建成本的判断属于经验推断。

数据问题

  • KB 中没有 2026-02 的 4Q25 电话会,4Q25 数据来自 Datadog IR 官网转录 PDF/GlobeNewswire 新闻稿(WebFetch 摘要),未能取得完整原文段落;fool.com 原始页面经代理 403 无法下载。
  • FactSet 转录稿为连续文本,无发言人标签;引文中发言人按上下文推断(如 1Q26 指引问答中 CFO 与 CEO 交替发言)。
  • AI-native 占比口径不一致:4Q24、1Q25 披露为占 ARR (~6%、~8.5%),2Q25、3Q25 为占收入 (11%、12%);4Q25 起公司停止披露,2026 年数字只有卖方估算(Funda 估 2Q26 约 15%)。
  • 公司从未点名最大客户;'OpenAI' 为市场/卖方/专家的普遍判断(Guggenheim、Funda、TMTB 均如此称呼)。剔除最大客户的增速只有定性说法('pretty much the same'),无精确数字。
  • RPO 2Q26 $3.47B 较 1Q26 $3.48B 环比持平,同比由 +51% 降至 +43%;公司称 RPO/账单波动大,收入是更好指标。
  • Q4 2024 RPO 未查到;Q3 2024 季度数据未纳入。
  • 股价涨跌:1Q26 当日 TMTB 早盘 +28%、收盘 +30%;2Q26 早盘 -16%/-18%、收盘 -19%,各源略有不同。4Q25 业绩当日 Yahoo 称 +8.4%,但 IBKR 周线显示当周收跌,未逐日核对。
  • EV/NTM 销售倍数为推断:未查到可转债余额与 NTM 一致预期;Jefferies 的 19x CY27 为卖方口径。
  • Funda/TMTB 为 Substack 卖方/独立研究摘要,专家数字(如 OpenAI 2Q 用量 -10~20% 环比、Chronosphere 低 30-40% 定价)无法独立验证。
  • 3Q26 业绩尚未发布(预计 2026-11 初),是验证最大客户降用量影响与非 AI 加速是否持续的下一个节点。
赢家 NET · 现价 vs 前高 +17% 11 条原文

做什么:Cloudflare 运营一张覆盖 120+ 国家、350+ 城市的全球网络,挡在客户网站/API/员工前面,卖 CDN+应用安全(WAF、DDoS、Bot 管理,Act 1)、零信任/SASE(Act 2)、Workers 开发者平台(serverless 计算、存储、Workers AI 推理、Agent 沙盒,Act 3),并在搭建 AI 爬虫付费/Agent 支付(Act 4: pay-per-crawl、Monetization Gateway、Wallets)。买家从个人开发者(免费/每月几美元)到大企业、政府和 AI 公司(公司称约 80% 的主要 AI 公司是客户)。

怎么收费:混合:以订阅为底(按请求量分档的 'T-shirt' cap 合同为主),叠加 pool of funds 预付资金池和纯用量计费;可变/用量收入占比正在上升。Investor Day(2026-06-09) CFO 披露四种收费模式:(1) flat rate 订阅(IPO 时几乎 100% 收入为订阅);(2) 纯 usage-based 后付费,'still under 10%';(3) cap 模型(多数合同),客户承诺每月请求量上限,例如 1,000 万请求/月,超了就要买大一号 T-shirt——'requests in these contracts are the most significant measure for revenue';(4) pool of funds 预付资金池,2025Q4 新 ACV 中 20% 来自 pool of funds(2025 全年约 mid-teens)。Q2'26 CFO callback(卖方转述):可变收入是 Q2 超预期的主要来源,占比从历史上的高个位数升至两位数。Workers 按实际执行计费('You only get charged for when it's actually doing work')。Q2 发言:'moving away from a purely ratable SaaS model towards a much more diversified mix of pool of funds, consumption-based structures and also what we call T-shirt sizes.'

为什么跌:NET 不属于 2025 年 'seat 被 AI 替代' 的典型受害者(按请求/流量收费)。它的回撤集中在 2026-02 至 2026-05:TIKR 统计 52 周高点 $260 后最大回撤 36.76%(标注日期 2026-02-23);2026-04-09 单日 -11.6%~-12% 至约 $186(当日开盘前 YTD 仍 +7.15%),次日在 ServiceNow 被下调后再跌约 13%;2026-05-08 Q1 财报后单日 -24%(公司历史最大单日跌幅)。52 周低点 $158.83(具体日期未查到)。 (1) 2026 年 4 月软件板块被 'AI agent 摧毁软件商业模式' 的叙事重估,Anthropic 发布 Claude Managed Agents 被市场解读为基础设施层的新竞争者,叠加关税 risk-off;NET 估值高(TIKR 称约 130x NTM EV/EBITDA),下跌幅度领先板块。(2) Q1'26(5/7)财报虽收入 +33.5% 超预期 3%,但:Q2 指引仅隐含 ~30% 增速、与一致预期持平;DBNRR 由 120% 降至 118%;RPO 增速由 48% 降至 36%、环比仅 +2%;非 GAAP 毛利率 72.8% 远低于市场 ~75%;同时宣布裁员 1,100+ 人(约 20%)、计提 $140-150M 重组费用。市场担心高估值下增速将因基数变难回落到 30% 以下、Workers/推理拉低毛利、裁员影响执行。

AI 怎么变成收入:四条路径:(1) Act 1 流量/请求量:Agent 访问网站的请求量是人类的数量级倍数('if I'm looking for a digital camera as a human, I might visit five websites... My agent's going to visit 5,000'),而多数合同按请求量分档(T-shirt cap),客户触顶就要升级——CFO callback 确认合法的 agentic 请求与人类请求以同样方式产生收入;同时 Bot 管理/AI Crawl Control 让媒体等原本低收入行业上网。(2) Act 3 Workers:vibe coding 平台(Lovable、Replit、Base44 等)生成的代码部署到 Workers,Agent 需要轻量沙盒(isolates/Dynamic Workers)、推理、存储,按执行用量/pool of funds 计费;开发者数 Q2 单季 +近 200 万。(3) Act 2 SASE:企业需要细粒度控制 Agent 能访问哪些数据,Agent 安全成为零信任新的销售切入点。(4) Act 4:pay-per-crawl、Monetization Gateway、Wallets、cloudflare.pay、与 OpenAI 的研究试点,向 Agent 按请求收取'几分之一美分'——尚未形成实质收入。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:变多。计费单位是请求量/流量/计算执行/资金池消耗,而非人头。Agent 让请求量数量级增长(Prince:五年后非人类流量可能是人类的 1,000 倍),vibe coding 让'开发者'和部署的代码量暴增。风险:有恶意或客户不想要的 AI 爬虫流量,Cloudflare 拦截不额外收费('we don't charge the customers anything more for blocking up that traffic');以及 cap 合同下用量增长先于收入,存在滞后。 计量的东西是不是自己的:是自有的。被计量的是 Cloudflare 自建全球网络上的请求、带宽、Workers 执行和存储;GPU 也是自有机队(但量不大),管理层明确拒绝做'租 GPU'的商品化算力生意,强调靠调度把 GPU 利用率推向 CPU 的 70-80%。AI Gateway 会转发对第三方大模型的调用(部分透传别人的 token),这一块属于转卖性质,但规模未披露。 产出能不能数:能计数:请求数(公司公开每秒约 5 亿请求)、开发者数、付费客户数、Workers CPU 时间等都可计数;Act 4 的微支付交易数尚在建设(目标每秒千万级交易)。

时间线

  • 2026-02-10 Q4'25 财报:收入 $614.5M,+33.6%(Q3'25 为 +30.7%),超一致预期 $591.4M 约 3.9%;RPO $2.496B,+48% YoY、+16% QoQ;DBNRR 120%(+9pt YoY);大客户 4,298(+23%);FY26 收入指引 $2.785-2.795B。 股价:财报日 +5.24%(TIKR);随后仍卷入 2-4 月板块下跌
  • 2026-05-07 Q1'26 财报(反转前的最后一跌):收入 $639.8M +33.5%(超预期 ~3%);首次在 Q1 上调全年指引至 $2.805-2.813B(仅约等于 beat);DBNRR 118%(环比 -2pt);RPO $2.543B +36%(上季 +48%);毛利率 72.8%;宣布裁员约 20%。但领先指标亮眼:新增 100 万开发者(全 2025 年 150 万)、$1M+ 交易 +73%、新客户 bookings 增速 2023 年以来最高、pipeline 环比增速 5 年最高、毛留存率 4 年最高。 股价:5/8 收盘 -24%(盘前 TMTB 记为 -15%)
  • 2026-06-09 Investor Day:North Star 从 Rule of 40 上调为 2027 年 Rule of 50;称将在 2028 年之前超过 $5B 年化收入目标;GAAP 盈利最迟 2028 年;披露收费模式(T-shirt cap / pool of funds / 用量),解释 pool of funds 续约扩容带来的收入确认滞后(Q1 的 RPO/NRR 疲软部分源于此)。 股价:未查到
  • 2026-08-06 Q2'26 财报(反转确认):收入 $696.1M,+36%(Q1 +33.5%),超指引上限($664-665M,隐含 ~30%)约 4.7%,为 18 个季度最大百分比 beat;RPO $2.732B,+38% YoY、+7% QoQ(Q1 +36%/+2%);cRPO +35%;DBNRR 回到 120%(+6pt YoY);$100K+ 大客户 4,698,+27%(Q1 +25%),单季净增 282、YoY 净增 986 创纪录;毛利率 73.1%,8 个季度来首次环比改善;开发者 740 万(单季 +近 200 万);付费客户单季 +8 万、YoY +74%;Q2 >50% 网络流量为非人类。FY26 指引上调至 $2.864-2.870B(+32%),中值上调约 $58M,大于 Q2 beat(~$32M);Q3 指引 $736-737M(+31%)。 股价:盘后/盘前约 +15%~+16%(盘前至 $329.46,突破此前 52 周高点 $305);收盘涨幅未查到
  • 2026-08-10 发行 $2.175B 2031 年到期可转债:融资事件(非经营数据),增加潜在稀释 股价:未查到

空方论点

  • 估值:~30x NTM EV/Sales、远期 PE ~200x,需要多条业务线同时兑现 30%+ 增长(TMTB 8/7 bear case)。
  • 可变/用量收入占比升至两位数,季度间波动和指引难度加大;pool of funds 续约扩容造成收入确认滞后,RPO/NRR 单季可能'断档'(Q1'26 已出现)。
  • Q3 指引隐含增速从 36% 降至 31%;GuidePoint 渠道合作伙伴(Myriad360 VP)称其 Q3 Cloudflare bookings 与 Q2 持平、全年约 +15%。
  • 毛利率仍比去年同期低 320bp:付费流量与 Workers/推理工作负载毛利率低于均值;CFO 承认 agentic AI 请求毛利更低。
  • SBC 约占收入 20%,TTM SBC($520M)远大于 FCF($315M),无回购,持续发可转债(2026-08 $2.175B)。
  • Act 4(pay-per-crawl、微支付)的定价、采用速度、时间表都未定义,尚未进入预期;渠道专家称 AI Gateway 客户反馈有限、身份安全有缺口。
  • 企业销售负责人 Mark Anderson 即将离任;20% 裁员后的执行风险。
  • 宏观/板块:2026-10-16 AI 融资担忧导致云股回调,NET 单日 -7% 至约 $293;AI 支出若放缓,NET 与 SNOW、DDOG 同受冲击。

原文

把'非人类流量超过人类'这一事件定为 2026 年拐点(2026 年 5 月发生,早于公司自己预测的 2027 年),并说明恶意 AI 流量拦截不收费、想要的 Agent 流量要更高效地服务,以及按请求向 Agent 收微支付的 Act 4 设想。
Yeah, Saket, I think it's a pretty wild time. I was asked in the end of 2025 – in November 2025, when I thought that non-human traffic would pass human traffic and we pulled all the data, we ran all the numbers and we were pretty confident that it was going to be the second half of 2027. I was asked the same question again in March of 2026 and we did the same exercise and were surprised to see that it had moved up to be – that would cross in the first half of 2027. So, I was quite surprised when in May of this year, our team came to me and said, you won't believe it, but non-human traffic is now passed human traffic online. And to give you a sense of how this trend is playing out and with the big caveat that I have called it wrong at every point along the way, if the current trends continue, we think in five years, non-human traffic will be as much as 1,000 times as much as human traffic. In other words, humans will be a rounding error on the Internet, not because human traffic goes down, but that's just how fast we're seeing non-human traffic grow. And so, that's resulting in a number of things. The first is that for some of that non-human traffic, it's malicious. And that could be malicious like it's hackers or bad guys. It could also be it's malicious from the perspective of a particular customer's business model, where it's traffic that is maybe an AI company trying to take the content from a media company that relies on advertising. And in those cases, we block that traffic and we don't charge the customers anything more for blocking up that traffic, because we think that that's the right thing for us to be doing and delivering. And that's part of being a security company. At the same time, though, there are some people who want that traffic. And so, we're doing everything we can, not only to serve that, but to make it as efficient as possible to serve it, because if we're going to have 1,000 times as much traffic online, we've got to get a lot more efficient and companies like Cloudflare are critical to be able to support that for customers, whether they're large and small. The thing that I think is most interesting, though, is that, increasingly, as we talk to the AI companies and over 80% of the major AI companies are Cloudflare customers and rely on us as we have a great relationship with them and as we talk to others, it's clear that as agents are accessing all of these sites and the volume that they're accessing them on, the sort of give to get that you have with human traffic is different. And so, if you look at some of the things that we've announced this week during Agents Week, things like cloudflare.pay, that's us setting the foundation to be able to say how do we charge agents some – again, what will be a very, very small fee, fractions of a penny for every request that goes through, but for the request that pass through that traffic, because somebody has to pay for the bandwidth, somebody has to pay for the server, somebody has to pay for the people doing the work to create the content. And I think that the business model of the Internet for the last 27 years has been largely defined by advertising and really defined by Google. I think the business model of the next 27 years of the Internet is going to be very different and there's no company in a better position to define what it looks like than Cloudflare.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Matthew Prince · 2026-08-07-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L181
发言人背景:Cloudflare 联合创始人兼 CEO(现任)
管理层首次明确 Workers 从'抢占用户'转为'meaningful contributor to revenue',并通过 pool of funds 带入大企业合同;但没有披露具体金额。
Sure. So, I will start out not fully answering your question and then Thomas can continue to not fully answer your question. I think we haven't broken out by product area what our revenue or revenue growth rate is, but I can say that the Workers platform continues to be something that really drives an enormous amount of both new customer adoption and real revenue growth. And I think for a while, we were saying that we were playing for adoption, we weren't playing for revenue. I think that has tipped and we are now very much, again, not trying to maximize every dollar by any means, but that Workers has become a meaningful contributor to revenue. I think it shows up in the anecdotes that I gave about customer wins. More and more of them are signing pool of funds deals because of the fact that Workers is part of it and that their developer teams are saying, hey, yeah, sign with Cloudflare, use their Zero Trust, use their reverse proxy services, but also make sure that we've got something available where we can use their Workers platform. And so, that tends to drive that and drive a lot of consumption through that as well. I think that – so, for sure – and again, I think you see this in the paying customer count that the PLG, kind of product-led growth, is definitely going great. But you're also seeing, if you just look at like – you do this across earnings calls, you add up, we give basically the same number of customer win examples every time. If you just added up the dollar amount of those contracts and figure out what the average is, those have been ticking up and up and up. And I think that that is still very much a function of a great enterprise sales team where people want – if you're going to sign $10 million plus contracts, no one is putting it on a credit card. Those are deals that humans negotiate with each other and there needs to be a level of trust and relationship and a knowledge that if something goes wrong, someone's there to fix it. And that's what great enterprise sales leaders do. What I think our enterprise sales team is doing is getting more technical. And again, that – well, even those people who are great salespeople, but they weren't particularly technical, I think we're giving them the tools to become much more technical. And I think over time, I mean, what I've challenged our team and the sales team, and I think that I will – that this challenge will be met fairly quickly, is who's going to be the first salesperson who is in a meeting and while sitting in that meeting, delivers a feature before they even leave the meeting and it gets shipped to production. We're building the system to be able to do that. And I think our sales team has leaned in to say, yeah, it's really important to still go build relationships, but we need to be technical. We need to be able to understand and talk to the technical leaders that are on the team. And at the end of the day, the best product is still what's going to win.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Matthew Prince · 2026-08-07-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L354
发言人背景:Cloudflare 联合创始人兼 CEO(现任)
确认收入模式从 ratable SaaS 转向 pool of funds/用量/T-shirt 的混合,带来更高波动,所以指引保守。
Yeah, the trajectory of the business is clearly up and to the right for both revenue as well as operating income. But as we said at Investor Day, their business model is also going to evolve. It's moving away from a purely ratable SaaS model towards a much more diversified mix of pool of funds, consumption-based structures and also what we call T-shirt sizes. As the business accelerates, that also leads to more and more customers burning through their T-shirt sizes faster, pool of funds are getting consumed faster and getting renewed. So we are really stacking these things on top of each other. And that leads to, you would call it a higher standard deviation across the individual customers. So the momentum over a multiple quarter is clearly pointing up into the right. You don't – you not only see this in revenue, you also see this in RPO and CRPO, but moving – how we move from quarter-to-quarter becomes a little bit more difficult to forecast. That's why we continue to be prudent in terms of how we set the guidance, but the trajectory is clear – is clearly up into the right.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Thomas Seifert · 2026-08-07-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L289
发言人背景:Cloudflare CFO(现任)
说明 NET 不靠出租 GPU、不跟随资本开支军备竞赛,按'完成的工作'收费,计量对象是自有网络,资本开支跟随需求投放。
Sure, Patrick. So I think not all revenue is created equal. And if you're selling what is just commodity compute, if you're basically letting a AI company use your balance sheet and your credit rating in order to buy servers that are the same as everybody else's servers, then like that's just not attractive business for us. And so I think that we're very disciplined. It's not that we don't get asked. But I don't think that's particularly interesting for us. I will say that we have a lot of interaction with the largest AI providers that are out there. And they're – again, they're all customers of ours. And so I think that it's – that you could imagine in ways where – that we would find something that where we could actually be a bigger and bigger player in providing the services to power more and more of the serious AI players that are out there in more meaningful and deep ways. But ultimately, like, we're not going to do that just selling commodity hardware because that, again, is bad business for us. I think the other thing that's different about us is that we've just always focused on how we can squeeze as much out of every CapEx dollar as possible. And so how is it that we can, not just throw money at a problem, but actually say how do we get more utilization out of that? And so our team is constantly trying to figure out how can you get more inference, how can you get more CPU, how can you get more out of the memory or storage that we have in every box that we have. And I think that that's just a very different attitude than you see elsewhere. And so, again, we know what the typical kind of inference loads are at the hyperscalers and their GPU utilization. And it's super low. And that's not the hyperscalers fault. It's that what they're selling is just a box and it's up to the customers in order to actually maximize the utilization. And customers often don't have the diversity of traffic or the ability to really schedule things in order to get the highest possible utilization. And so if we can, and in some cases, get 10 times as much utilization out of every CapEx dollar, then we can play these games and continue to grow revenue, but it's really high-quality revenue and it's revenue that doesn't require us to just throw money at it. Again, I think it's worth repeating things that somebody has said before, which is we're just in a very different business than the hyperscalers. The hyperscalers, the traditional first-generation cloud, are in the business of buying a server and then trying to sell it back, lease it back and get 5 turns of revenue off of it. We are in a very different business, where we're selling actually work getting done. And then instead of it being up to the customer to get as much out of the server as possible, we need to do the work to get as much out of the underlying equipment as possible and build the scheduling and efficiency and everything else that's out there. And I think that that is fundamentally the difference in our business and why like I don't think we want to get into the business of renting servers because, over time, it's a commodity business and it's not very attractive.
2026-08-06 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Matthew Prince · 2026-08-07-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-6-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L466
发言人背景:Cloudflare 联合创始人兼 CEO(现任)
解释为什么 NET 能把 agentic 流量变成收入而传统 CDN 不能:NET 位于 API/应用流量前面,而非视频带宽;每月数千亿次 agentic 请求。
To your first question about traffic, I think the key here is something that we've always understood, but I'm not sure the market has understood as well, which is not all traffic is created equal. A lot of the times, if you were sort of a traditional CDN customer or company, what you're trying to chase was things that drove lots of bandwidth, so video streaming of live events and things like – and things like that. And again, that was an okay business. I think it had a lot of pressure. It was largely a commodity. But that was kind of the game of being a CDN. We never saw ourselves that way. We thought what we wanted to get in front of was the most essential traffic that was out there, not bandwidth and video streaming, but APIs and applications and seeing that. And I think that in this new world of agentic commerce and agentic transactions, our approach is showing kind of the wisdom and durability of that. So today, literally, we're seeing hundreds of billions of agentic requests per month, and that number is growing exponentially. They are interacting with us, and we are setting what the rails and the guardrails are for that, and that's driving our Act 1 business. And then on the other side, in our Workers platform, we have built a platform that allows you to build agents that are just significantly more efficient than anyone had before. And so across all of the parts of our business, because even in the Zero Trust and SASE space, it turns out that having more fine-grained controls about data is exactly what you need if you have kind of these somewhat new agents running around doing things. You want to make sure that they only have access to the things they should. It's – I wish I could say that we saw all this years ago and built Cloudflare for it. But I think that the reality is that we happen to have built exactly the right set of tools for this moment. And I think that's what's separating us from some of the people that we sometimes get compared to.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Matthew Prince · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L193
发言人背景:Cloudflare 联合创始人兼 CEO(现任)
把 AI 对 Act 1/2/3 三条业务线的拉动分别讲清(人类看 5 个网站,Agent 看 5,000 个),Workers 增长四分之三来自新客户。
Yeah. I mean, I think for the Act 3 products, the developer platform products, I think it's the most obvious which is that we're just seeing more code being created. It needs an efficient place to run. It needs to have a set of primitives that can act as fast and as ephemerally as agents need to act. So if you imagine that you're a company that's building something that's going to plan a vacation for someone, what you really need is the ability to essentially spin up an extremely lightweight sandbox that writes code, that assembles kind of all of the different parts of what that vacation may entail, puts it together, pulls it back and then blows the sandbox up very, very quickly. To do that with any other platform is extremely expensive and slow. And we've made it with some of the things that we've announced during Agents Week and otherwise, we've made that just drop-dead simple. And so, that's driving a ton of use. And again, I think that the way to see that is the fact that we added 1 million developers to our platform just the last quarter, almost as many as we did in all of last year is extraordinary. And if you look at growth across the Workers platform, more than three-quarters of that is from new customers. And the growth rates are pretty extraordinary across that. That's also, again, to some extent, putting pressure on gross margin because those are less optimized for gross margin products. But we are confident that as we can continue to drive GPU utilization and all those things, that we'll be able to get more out of that. I think to the other part of your question, just as more – every time an agent does something, like if you think about it, if you just – if you type something into ChatGPT or any of the things, like, to search, the number of sites that get searched, the amount of traffic that gets generated, if I'm looking for a digital camera as a human, I might visit five websites, if I really care about it. My agent's going to visit 5,000. And so, that's going to just drive significantly more usage which is the biggest driver of kind of our Act 1 revenue. And again, I think unlike some of the pure-play CDNs that are out there, the agents aren't going to go watch reruns at the Super Bowl. They're going to drive things that actually drive real traffic to real e-commerce sites. And that's where Cloudflare and the huge swath of the Internet that sits in behind us is really valuable. And then for Act 2, again, as we talked about already, I think being able to very narrowly define what data an agent has access to and what data they don't, we're just seeing more and more of that usage, especially in the self-service category, which there really isn't another sort of SASE, Zero Trust, self-serve competitor out there with any sort of scale. And so that's with things like OpenClaw driving a lot of usage there. And what we've found time and time again is, as hobbyists or individuals adopt a technology, they inevitably start to bring that technology more and more to work. And that's what we're seeing as we win more of the enterprise accounts across Act 2.
2026-05-07 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Matthew Prince · 2026-05-07-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-q1-2026-earnings-call-7-may-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L375
发言人背景:Cloudflare 联合创始人兼 CEO(现任)
CFO 明说加速来自 variable(用量)收入,并称 agentic 世界会把 SaaS 从 seat 计价推向用量计价——这正是 NET 与 seat 型 SaaS 的分水岭。
Well, we – one of our Founders, Michelle, we make fun of her, because every year, when we have kickoff for the year and talk about the targets for what is to come and how we approach the year, we are only getting started. And now, this is our eighth year as a public company. So the beginning of the year, she said that the eighth is time. And I truly think that what you just said is true. When we think about our life in Act, Act I, Act II, Act III and Workers AI, we'll talk about it, Act IV, content protection, how we monetize it, we still – we think that that opportunity is going to thwart (02:04) what is already behind us. Last year, we were sitting here and agentic AI was still far away. The step-up of the LLMs only came in November and we were primarily concerned about convincing you all that our sales execution was on track, but productivity was coming that we felt comfortable investing in sales capacity, and that was driving the early steps of acceleration and growth in a quite significant way. Now, I think we are what you described in this paradigm shift of what an agentic AI world is going to do to us. And we find ourselves at a point where the network, the architecture, the biggest competitive mode of Cloudflare, the network itself seemed to be designed for what is going to come and support what agentic AI workflows are looking for, super low latency, secure Sandboxes to execute code and so on. So, what you look for are the signs that signal this early – the early innings. And because of the architecture of the network and the benefits, developers are flocking to Cloudflare. So, that is an early sign that I think is signaling this dramatic shift. Developer count was up 2 million developers quarter-over-quarter alone. You'll see that the acceleration of revenue is now happening in what we call variable revenue, right, so, consumption-based revenue. Another big shift, I think, in the agentic world is that we move and disrupt SaaS from a seat-based metric into highly variable consumption-driven revenue. That is where we see acceleration. We're at a point now where pretty much all the large names of AI native companies, whether it's Lovable, Sigma, Anthropic, OpenAI are building on Workers on top of the network. And one of the stats we gave at Investor Day was that we think about 80% of the significant AI enterprise infrastructure is a customer of Cloudflare. So, all the signs you want to see. And there's one trend that I think is signaling what is going to come when it – when we talk about Act IV. There was this vertical that we always were highly underrepresented. It was content creators. Media was always a vertical that was revenue weak at Cloudflare because there was not a lot of value for us just moving bytes from one place to another. And they are now shifting towards Cloudflare to start to protect and make their content that they create scares (05:04) in order to generate leverage. So, I think there are so many structural signs that signal what is coming. And that is, to be very honest, what gave us the confidence at Investor Day to raise our North Star, right? We said for many years now, 40% was our North Star. We shifted that to 50%. We'll exit this year with significant momentum in that direction. And I think there's clearly a world, and that is what we also said beyond 2027, where we will live in a world beyond the Rule of 50, and that will be the result of acceleration of Act III and Act IV.
2026-09-09 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Thomas Seifert · 2026-09-09-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-goldman-sachs-communacopia-technology-conference-9-september-2026-1-08-pm-et.md L24
发言人背景:Cloudflare CFO(现任)
把 Q2 超预期直接归因于更多 agentic AI 流量和请求、pool of funds 消耗变快并在季度中续约。
Well, if you think about – so if the upside comes from variable consumption, it is more agentic AI traffic, it's more requests, it's faster adoption of products across pool of funds. If it's a pool of funds contract, people burn through their commitments way faster. We renew mid-quarter. That is the dynamic around that. But you asked for structural signs of us participating. I think this is one of these structural signs where we see that this flywheel is starting to spin and it's probably going to spin faster and not slower moving forward.
2026-09-09 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Thomas Seifert · 2026-09-09-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-goldman-sachs-communacopia-technology-conference-9-september-2026-1-08-pm-et.md L167
发言人背景:Cloudflare CFO(现任)
唯一一次系统披露计费单位:多数合同是按请求量的 cap(T-shirt)模型,纯用量收入不到 10%,并解释用量增长会滞后于收入确认。(CFO 长段发言中截取的关键部分)
So, today, as you can see, we have four primary models of how we generate revenue. The easy ones, the flat rate, this is where we came from, where the world was easy on the IPO-ed and almost 100% of our revenue was subscription based. There is a larger share of pure usage-based revenue today, still under 10% where customers pay us in the rear. The complexity comes from the two other components of how we interact with our customers. Cap models and pool of funds. And you'll find out has a lot to do with T-shirt sizes and Nike Swooshes. And why is that? So, the majority of our contracts are based today on what we call a cap model. And requests in these contracts are the most significant measure for revenue. So, what does this mean? Think of a T-shirt you buy. A customer buys a T-shirt, commit to a ceiling of utilization of a product (01:51:38), for example, type buys, medium-size T-shirt, 10 million requests per month. And it gives us predictable and smooth revenue as long as the customer is using under this umbrella of what he has committed to. But what happens if a customer outgrows that medium-size T-shirt and has to go out and buy a larger one, let's say, small – from medium to large to $20 million requests per month? The traffic is increasing (01:52:09) more than the customer has planned. He needs to buy up. But however, remember, the customer is not going to buy what he consumes in the moment. He's trying to estimate what his future consumption is going to be. And this transition is letting our revenue grow, but it will lag to the inflection point of usage and makes, a little bit of sympathy from all of you, our job of guiding and forecasting a little bit more tricky.
2026-06-09 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Thomas Seifert · 2026-06-10-corrected-transcript-cloudflare-inc-net-us-investor-day-9-june-2026-1-00-pm-et.md L895
发言人背景:Cloudflare CFO(现任)
Q3 业绩(11 月)前少有的负面渠道数据:Q3 bookings 与 Q2 持平,与公司 36% 增速形成反差,属于空头关注点。
AS: Still, if you were to compare between Q3, which is ending September, versus the Q2, I would say it's pretty much flat from a growth perspective. So we have not lost any business, but we haven't gained any significant business either. But starting into Q4, I think the momentum has picked up a little bit. The pipeline is looking pretty healthy as well for Cloudflare from a perspective. So that's where we are overall. The Cloudflare business is healthy for us from a year-over-year perspective. It's not concerning at all and a very healthy business.
2026-10-12 · GuidePoint 专家访谈 · Alpesh Shah · 2026-10-12-cdn-and-edge-ai-october-2026-channel-partner-on-cloudflare-akamai-and-fastly.md L186
发言人背景:Myriad360(美国 IT 方案商/渠道伙伴)安全战略联盟副总裁,现任;Cloudflare 与 Palo Alto 的经销商视角,只看到自己渠道的 bookings,样本小,不代表 Cloudflare 整体
上季度渠道里还没有客户用 pay-per-crawl;本季度媒体客户开始询问 bot 可见性/爬虫控制,但已成交金额中的占比说不清——Act 4 仍处于早期。
AS: Okay. That area is definitely picking up the conversations because I think Cloudflare or maybe some other industry vendor released some of the report where the bot traffic is gaining more and more on the internet. So as the bot traffic gains the traffic momentum and tokenomics come into play, if you couple that together, I think the solutions from Cloudflare, which is probably unique by itself because no other vendor that I know of provide the kind of bot visibility and bot traffic scraping solutions out there. So media clients are definitely asking us looking into it. The pipeline that we have strong today is probably some of the mixture of that as well. So how much we have closed, it's difficult to say that the majority of the business that we have closed is coming from the bot scraping solutions from Cloudflare, but clients are asking about that and the momentum is picking up around the bot traffic visibility.
2026-10-12 · GuidePoint 专家访谈 · Alpesh Shah · 2026-10-12-cdn-and-edge-ai-october-2026-channel-partner-on-cloudflare-akamai-and-fastly.md L418
发言人背景:Myriad360 安全战略联盟副总裁,现任;渠道视角,样本有限

数据问题

  • Q1'26 财报后股价跌幅口径冲突:TMTB 5/8 晨报标题 'NET -15%'(盘前),CNBC/Rolling Out 报道收盘 -24%(公司史上最大单日跌幅)。以收盘 -24% 为准。
  • Rolling Out 写 Q1'26 毛利率 '71% vs 76%',可能是 GAAP 口径;公司非 GAAP 毛利率为 72.8%。另:Q1'26 transcript 称毛利率'同比 -130bp',按此推算 Q1'25 为 74.1%,但 Q1'25 call 摘要(bullfincher)写 77.1%,相差 300bp,可能是 transcript 笔误或口径重述,未核实。
  • Q2'26 财报后只查到盘后/盘前涨幅(+15%~+16.9%,盘前 $329.46),常规交易时段收盘涨幅未查到;Investor Day 当天股价反应未查到。
  • 52 周低点 $158.83 的具体日期未查到;TIKR 把最大回撤标注在 2026-02-23,与其正文所说 4 月为主要下跌时段不一致。
  • Q3'24-Q2'25 季度数据来自 bullfincher.io 的 earnings call 摘要(第三方整理),没有逐一与公司新闻稿核对;Q3'25 及以后来自公司 transcript/新闻稿。
  • Workers/开发者平台收入、AI 收入、AI-native 客户收入占比公司均未披露;'Workers 已成为 meaningful contributor' 只是定性说法。
  • 可变收入'高个位数→两位数'来自 TMTB 转述的 CFO callback,并非公司公开文件;Investor Day 口径为纯用量收入 'still under 10%',两者口径(variable 是否含 pool of funds 超额/cap 升级)不同。
  • Q1'26 RPO 增速放缓部分来自 2025Q1 $130M 大单的高基数(卖方解释)以及 pool of funds 续约的收入确认滞后(公司 Investor Day 解释)。
  • EV/NTM Sales 为自行推算(未扣除可转债与现金的精确数,2026-08 新发 $2.175B 可转债后的资产负债表未核实);TMTB 的 '33x CY27 revenue' 与一致预期推算不一致。
  • Q3'26 财报尚未公布(预计 2026 年 11 月初);GuidePoint 单一渠道伙伴称 Q3 bookings 持平,样本极小。
  • MeritForum 离职专家(2026-10-14)称 AI Agent 请求量一年增长约 1,400%、AI Gateway 单季增长 30-40%,属专家估计,未经公司证实:Knowledge Base/MeritForum/2026-10/2026-10-14-cloudflarechi-zhi-zhuan-jia-ai-agentqing-qiu-liang-ti-sheng-15bei-aiying-yong-bei-ru-qin-bi-li-cong-10ti-sheng-dao-20-tu.md
  • FCF TTM 包含 Q2'26 约 $99M 重组现金支出;公司称剔除重组影响后 2026 全年 FCF 预期不变,但全年 FCF 指引具体数字未在已读材料中查到。
赢家 SNOW · 现价 vs 前高 +15% 5 条原文

做什么:Snowflake 卖云上的数据平台 (数据仓库/数据湖、数据工程、数据共享),现在又加上 AI 层:Cortex AI 函数、编码 agent Cortex Code (CoCo)、面向业务用户的 CoWork (原 Snowflake Intelligence)。客户是大中型企业的数据团队、工程师,越来越多也包括业务部门;截至 FY27Q2 有 14,554 个客户,覆盖 41%+ 的 Global 2000。

怎么收费:用量 (consumption):客户预购 credits,按实际消耗的计算、存储、数据传输和 AI token/credits 确认收入;不按 seat 收费。公司披露:Product revenue (用量收入) 占总收入约 96% (FY27Q2 product $1,491.9M / 总收入 $1,546.8M),其余约 4% 是专业服务 ($54.9M)。指引只基于 '已观察到的消费行为' (Brian Robins: 'our forecast is based on observed consumption patterns')。卖方/专家说法:公司推出了单独的 AI credit,把 AI 计费和仓库计算拆开 (GuidePoint 专家 Bilal Jaffery 提到, 其看法是这更多是 Snowflake 控制自身成本, 客户更想要固定价)。FundaAI 称 CoCo 定价比 Claude Code 高约 40% (卖方说法, 未经公司证实)。

为什么跌:高点 2025-11-03 收盘 $277.14 → 2025-12-04 Q3 FY26 业绩后单日 -11.4% → 2026-02-03~05 三天累计约 -18% (软件板块抛售) → 2026-04-09/10 两天 -11.8%/-8.4%,2026-04-10 收盘 $121.11 (盘中低点 $118.30) 见底。高点到低点约 -56%,年初 ($219.36) 到低点约 -45%。 (1) 公司层面 (卖方说法):FY26Q3 前后增速停在 ~29%,FundaAI 认为 Gen2 仓库带来的性能优化 (客户少花钱)、Snowpark Connect 迁移,以及前沿 AI 实验室在 Snowflake 上压缩开支同时拖累消费;FY26Q4 指引 27% 增长,看上去在减速 (公司披露: Q4 FY26 指引 product revenue $1,195-1,200M, +27%; FY27 初始指引 $5.66B, +27%)。(2) 板块层面 (媒体):2026 年 'AI agent 取代 SaaS' 的抛售,以及 4 月市场的关注点从 AI 能力转到 AI 成本效率,压到了高估值软件股。(3) 其他 (媒体):2026 年 4 月下旬的证券集体诉讼 (指控 2023-06~2024-02 期间误导消费增长)、4 月 CRO 换人 (Mike Gannon → Jonathan Beaulier)、FY26 GAAP 净亏损 $1.33B、估值偏高。推断:SNOW 不靠 seat 收费,市场主要担心的不是 seat 被替代,而是 '优化 + AI 实验室外流 + AI 成本让增长停在 high-20s',同时被板块的去估值一起拖下去。

AI 怎么变成收入:公司说 AI 通过三条路变成收入:(1) AI 需要治理好的统一数据和上下文,企业于是把数据迁到 Snowflake (迁移由 CoCo 加速,Teradata 迁移从 2-3 年缩短到不到 3 个季度),带来核心仓库的计算和存储消费;(2) 第一方 AI 产品 CoCo/CoWork/AI Functions/AI Gateway 直接按 token/credits 计费;(3) 用 AI 的客户在核心平台上消费也更多 ('structural multiplier'),新客户更快用完预购容量。推断:这三条路最后都落到 '在 Snowflake 上跑的计算量' 上。AI agent 生成的查询、管道和应用越多,被计量的单位越多。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:计费单位变多 (公司披露 + 推断)。SNOW 按 compute/storage/token credits 收费,AI agent 不会减少 '席位',而是生成更多查询、管道、迁移和 agent 调用。公司称用 CoCo 的账户核心消费也更高,新客户更快用完预购容量;用例数同比 +89%。反向风险:CoCo 本身也是优化工具 (成本管理是 top 10 skill),Gen2 一类性能优化以前就压过消费;模型降价加上 AI Gateway 路由也可能让每个任务的收入下降。 计量的东西是不是自己的:大部分是自有的:被计量的是客户存在 Snowflake 上的数据和 Snowflake 的计算引擎 (平台自有)。但 AI token 部分有转售成分:CoCo/CoWork 很多请求调用 Anthropic/OpenAI 前沿模型,成本付给模型方,所以毛利较低 (产品毛利指引从 75% 降到 74%);开源和 Arctic 模型由 Snowflake 自己做推理,毛利更好。底层计算也跑在 AWS/Azure/GCP 上。 产出能不能数:可以计数:credits 消耗、查询数、账户数 (CoCo 9,100+、CoWork 5,800)、用例数,都按用量直接确认收入;公司内部还跟踪新客户在 3 个月内用掉 80% 预购容量的比例。

时间线

  • 2026-02-25 (Q4 FY26) Q4 FY26 业绩;Cortex Code 于 2026-02-05 GA:Q4 product revenue $1,226.6M,+30% (Q3 为 +29%);RPO $9.77B,+42%;NRR 125%;Q4 FCF $765M。但 FY27 指引只给 +27%,Q1 指引 +27%。这一季增速企稳,但还没有形成反转。 股价:2026-02-25 收盘 $169.21 (+5.1%),2026-02-26 $173.06 (+2.3%);之后 3-4 月继续创新低
  • 2026-05-27 (Q1 FY27,盘后) Q1 FY27 业绩 + $6B/5 年 AWS 合同 + 收购 Natoma —— 这是 2026 年股价的拐点:Product revenue $1,334M,+34% (上季 30%,去年同期 26%),公司称是史上最大的环比美元增量;比卖方一致预期高约 5.3% (FundaAI);FY27 product revenue 指引从 $5.66B/+27% 上调到 $5.84B/+31%;NRR 升到 126%;RPO +38%;Non-GAAP OPM 12% (+300bp);CoCo 7,100+ 账户;Brian Robins 称 'CoCo had the largest driver to the increase in our forecast' 股价:2026-05-28 收盘 $239.20,+36.5% (前收 $175.26);2026-06-01 (Investor Day/Summit) 再涨 +9.6% 到 $280.16
  • 2026-09-02 (Q2 FY27,盘后) Q2 FY27 业绩:连续第三个季度加速:Product revenue $1,491.9M,+37% (卖方一致预期 $1.42B/+31%,买方 bogey 36%);Q3 指引 $1.588-1.593B,+37~38% (卖方一致预期 +29%);FY27 指引从 31% 上调到 36% ($6.07B,其中 Observe 贡献约 1pt);FY27 non-GAAP OPM 指引从 13.5% 上调到 14.5%;产品毛利率指引从 75% 下调到 74% (AI 占比提高);公司称 AI 产品贡献了约一半的加速 股价:2026-09-03 收盘 $356.47,+16.6% (前收 $305.84;开盘 $377.25 约 +23%,盘中高 $384.56);TMTB 盘后报 +20%

空方论点

  • AI 消费是否只是把消费提前,或者是实验性支出:管理层和 TD Cowen (10/02) 都在专门反驳这点,说明这是买方的主要疑问 (Knowledge Base/Substack/2026-10/2026-10-02-tmtb-morning-wrap.md L256-262)
  • 客户对 AI/token 成本难以预测,决策会拖慢;客户想要固定价,不喜欢单独的 AI credit (GuidePoint 专家 Bilal Jaffery, Knowledge Base/GuidePoint/2026-08/2026-08-20-snowflake-august-2026-ai-and-data-partner-channel-check.md L348-372)
  • AI 产品毛利低于核心,产品毛利指引从 75% 降到 74%;CoCo 很多请求调用第三方前沿模型,有转售属性
  • RPO 同比从 42% (Q4) 降到 38% (Q1) 再到 30% (Q2),绝对额从 $9.77B 降到 $9.00B (公司解释: 续约集中在 Q4)
  • Databricks 竞争:Thoughtworks 专家称新增数据平台预算 Databricks:Snowflake 约 60:40,偏工程/agent/streaming 的新工作更多流向 Databricks (Knowledge Base/GuidePoint/2026-08/2026-08-20-snowflake-august-2026-ai-and-data-partner-channel-check.md L254-262)
  • SBC 约占收入 30%,GAAP 仍亏损 (公司目标 FY28Q4 GAAP 盈利);回购授权快用完
  • 最拥挤的软件多头 (TMTB 称 'the most crowded name in sw');10 月随消费型/AI infra 交易回撤 (10/14 -6.3%、10/16 -8.4%)
  • 安全事件风险:2026-10 ASOS 被曝 Snowflake 实例遭入侵 (ASOS 未确认) (Knowledge Base/Substack/2026-10/2026-10-06-tmtb-eod-wrap.md L199)
  • CoCo 的长期天花板:专家认为 CoCo 最终约占消费 10% 已经算激进,多数企业同时用 2-3 个编码 agent (Knowledge Base/Substack/2026-09/2026-09-01-preview-snow-2q26-cortex-code-continues-to-drive-strong-growth.md L366-370)

原文

公司第一次量化 AI 对加速的贡献:约一半来自 AI 产品,另一半来自核心平台和迁移 (AI 让迁移变快)。说明反转不是只靠单一产品。
I would roughly call it even, our AI products which is a pretty broad swath at this point. Absolutely, it's CoCo and CoWork, but it's also things like AI functions that make data operations proceed at an impressive scale, or even newer products like the AI Gateway. They contributed approximately half of the acceleration that we are seeing. But there are a lot of other products that are also demonstrating robust growth. And Brian touched on some of them. Whether it's Notebooks or applications written in Streamlit or React that are deployed into Snowflake and, of course, migrations themselves going faster. I have talked pretty much in every single earnings call over the past six quarters about migrations, and that is an area where we continue to get faster and faster. And some of the recent advances, both in models and harnesses, are letting us run long-duration tasks of a scale and complexity that we haven't been able to do before. And the rate at which workloads are coming onto Snowflake is also an important factor. And one anecdotal example that a big network equipment manufacturer is doing a Teradata migration in less than three quarters this year, and this is something that would have taken probably two to three years in any previous time. So, these are some of the things that are contributing to our acceleration and beat.
2026-09-02 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Sridhar Ramaswamy · 2026-09-02-corrected-transcript-snowflake-inc-snow-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-2-september-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L219
发言人背景:Snowflake CEO (现任)
解释了拐点那次全年指引从 27% 上调到 31% 的来源:主要是 CoCo 首次被放进模型。指引只基于已观察到的消费,所以后面有继续上调的空间。
Yeah. Thanks, Sridhar. I'll unpack that a little on terms of impact. And so, CoCo had the largest driver to the increase in our forecast. As a reminder, when we forecast we only forecast observed behavior. And as Sridhar mentioned, that just happened in the quarter. And so this quarter we had a very unique opportunity to layer CoCo in the model, and that's reflected throughout the remainder of the year. We also saw acceleration in our core business, and that informs our outlook as well. And so there's no change to our guidance philosophy where 3% we view as a really strong beat.
2026-05-27 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Brian Robins · 2026-05-28-corrected-transcript-snowflake-inc-snow-us-q1-2027-earnings-call-27-may-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L191
发言人背景:Snowflake CFO (现任)
公司承认 AI 产品毛利更低。一个季度后 (Q2) 产品毛利指引仍降到了 74%,说明 AI 收入有一部分是转售模型 token。
Yeah. Karl, thanks for the question. You're absolutely right. Our AI products have a lower gross margin than our core platform. The one thing that we want to do with our AI products when we launch a new product like CoCo is make sure that we develop a great product, that we get massive adoption, and we've seen really good adoption with CoCo. We're up to roughly about – a little over 7,000 accounts have adopted CoCo. With that said, we're offsetting that and keeping the same product gross margin at 75% for the full year, and lower bandwidth costs, i.e., I talked about the AWS contract, and so we're offsetting it there. So that's how we're able to do that. We're committed to find efficiency to be able to maintain that 75% gross margin.
2026-05-27 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Brian Robins · 2026-05-28-corrected-transcript-snowflake-inc-snow-us-q1-2027-earnings-call-27-may-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L257
发言人背景:Snowflake CFO (现任)
NRR 稳定在 126%,但 RPO 增速降到 30%,公司用续约集中在 Q4 来解释。这个说法要等 Q4 验证。
Within our existing base, customer expansion is healthy, as evidenced by our net revenue retention rate of 126%. This expansion is underpinned by growth in both migrations and AI use cases. In Q2, 48 net new customers surpassed $1 million in trailing 12-month spend. We now have 828 customers spending above the $1 million threshold. Remaining performance obligations grew 30% year-over-year, totaling $9 billion. As a reminder, we continue to see customers favor Q4 renewals. As a result, we expect bookings to be increasingly weighted towards the fourth quarter.
2026-09-02 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Brian Robins · 2026-09-02-corrected-transcript-snowflake-inc-snow-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-2-september-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L144
发言人背景:Snowflake CFO (现任)
第三方渠道认为 CoCo 落地快于 CoWork,同时也说出了空头的核心论点:AI token 成本不可预测,企业财务会更谨慎,可能拖慢业务端 AI 的放量。
I think, great question. I think we've seen early stage traction on CoCo. I think it converts faster than CoWork. And I think that's a scope difference rather than product quality difference. CoCo is just a coding agent. A lot of people are already used to coding agents for local files, and it's leveraging Snowflake data, which was there. The reason for that is because when the model answers wrong, you immediately go back to the data, right, and the architecture that powers it. And that is when that developer notices immediately, hence CoCo just becomes a comfortable, familiar interface. CoWork, I think, is where I'm personally interested because it's aimed at business users making decisions about output, but that ICP comes in afterwards, right? It directs the whole question. I think business users are really worried about the insight that is to be trusted or not. I think what we're also seeing is early stage defensive posture on costing, right? It's more conservative, and the problem is that ad hoc queries don't behave like scheduled dashboard refresh, right? It is hard to forecast; a finance function that can forecast, it's a warehouse spend, which was easy, right? We could have predicted a few % every quarter, every time period. Now, what we don't know is if someone asks a question, what is the predictable token users associated with it? I think that does stall some decision-making within the organizations. So that's where some of the decisions get stalled because there's more analysis and paralysis that comes with it. At the same time, I think a lot of that is necessary to really model the governance structure so that we can at least from finance to functional technical aspects, be more reliable in the ability to build business cases and the contracts that are associated with those cases accordingly. And then the movement happens. I think right now, fundamentally, every client of mine is worried about compute costs.
2026-08-19 · GuidePoint 专家访谈 · Bilal Jaffery · 2026-08-20-snowflake-august-2026-ai-and-data-partner-channel-check.md L348
发言人背景:Thoughtworks 美洲区 Data & AI 负责人、SVP (现任);曾在 Deloitte、Accenture、Blend 任职。视角局限:他是同时与 Snowflake 和 Databricks 合作的咨询/实施伙伴,本人承认 Thoughtworks 接的偏工程类项目更多,带来更多 Databricks 业务,看不到 Snowflake 整体消费数据。

数据问题

  • FactSet Q1 FY27 转录 L147 写 'We now have 79 customers spending more than $1 million',新闻稿是 779,属于转录错误,本文用 779。
  • 财年口径:Snowflake 财年截至 1 月 31 日,FY27Q2 = 2026 年 5-7 月。FundaAI/部分卖方用 '1Q26/2Q26' 指 FY27Q1/Q2,'3Q25' 指 FY26Q3,容易混淆。
  • '9,100 accounts' 有歧义:FY26Q4 新闻稿说 9,100+ 账户使用 AI 功能;FY27Q2 电话会说 CoCo 超过 9,100 账户;TD Cowen 10/02 纪要写 '~9.1K accounts using AI exiting 2Q'。口径可能不同,引用时以原文为准。
  • Snowflake Intelligence 在 2026 年夏季改名为 CoWork,Q1 和 Q2 的账户数口径可能不连续 (Q1 只说 '翻倍以上',没有绝对数)。
  • AI 收入绝对额 / run-rate 在 FY26Q3~FY27Q2 的新闻稿和电话会里都没有找到披露;对 CoCo 收入占比的估计 (2-3%、12-15% 增量消费) 都来自卖方专家,不是公司数据。
  • RPO 绝对额环比下降 ($9.77B → $9.21B → $9.00B),同比增速 42% → 30%。公司称续约集中在 Q4,但这与 '加速' 的叙事有张力,需要 FY27Q4 验证。
  • 股价日涨跌用 IBKR 日线计算:2026-09-03 收盘 +16.6%,与 TMTB 盘后 '+20%'、finviz 早盘 '~20%'、TIKR '23%' (接近开盘涨幅 +23%) 口径不同。
  • NTM 一致预期收入和 EV/NTM sales 未查到,表中估值是用公司数据加 IBKR 股价推算的。
  • 2026-10-16 单日 -8.4% 的原因未查到:KB 中 10/15 之后的 Substack 文件在设备上是云端未下载状态,grep 报 'Resource deadlock avoided',无法读取。
  • 2026-02-03~05 的大跌 (三天约 -18%) 具体触发事件未在 KB 中找到 (KB 的 SNOW 资料从 2026-04 末开始),只能归到板块性抛售。
  • TTM SBC 用现金流量表口径 ($1,641.9M);Non-GAAP 'SBC-related charges' 包含雇主税,口径更大。Q2 FY27 FCF 只有 $84M,Q4 是 FCF 旺季,TTM 口径受季节性影响。
  • 选择性看空数据:FundaAI 为 SNOW 多头 (自称多次看对),TMTB 对 Q2 的评价也偏多,卖方材料整体偏乐观。
赢家 CRWD · 现价 vs 前高 +68% 8 条原文

做什么:CrowdStrike 卖云端交付的网络安全软件:在每台电脑/服务器/云工作负载上装一个轻量传感器(Falcon agent),在此之上叠加端点防护(EDR)、云安全、身份安全、下一代 SIEM、暴露面管理、AI 安全(AIDR)等模块,并卖事件响应服务。买家是企业 CISO/IT 部门和政府机构,近 10 万家企业客户,大客户为主(公司披露,Q1 FY27 业绩会)。

怎么收费:混合:传统按受保护端点/工作负载×模块订阅;Falcon Flex 是多年期承诺金额(Flex dollars)在全平台模块间自由兑换;NG-SIEM 按第三方数据摄入量收费;AIDR/SafeMind 按 token 包收费。(1) 基础:按端点/主机/云工作负载数量×订阅模块数年费(推断+专家说法;Bernstein 称 CRWD 等属于 endpoint/employee-based pricing,见 TMTB 2026-09-17)。(2) Falcon Flex:客户先承诺 3-5 年安全预算,换成 Flex dollars 后在 Falcon 平台任意模块间兑换(Acecamp 2026-01-04 L28-32),CFO Burt Podbere 称‘negotiate once…just adding another PO’,且‘The biggest discounts are our Flex contracts’(Citi 会议 2026-09-10 L182-199)。从标准订阅转 Flex 平均 ending ARR 提升 >40%(去年同期 34%),re-Flex 平均再 +25%,两次以上 re-Flex 累计 +53%(Q2 FY27 业绩会 L77-82, L185-190)。(3) NG-SIEM:第一方 Falcon 数据随平台附带,‘we're really charging for third-party ingest’(Q1 FY27 L306-307)。(4) AIDR:‘we actually have token-based pricing as part of AIDR’,按客户规模给定 token 额度,超出买 token packs,经 Flex 消费(Q2 FY27 L374-381);SafeMind 前沿安全模型将以 token packs + expansion packs 变现,本财年不计入财务(Fal.Con 2026-09-02 L212-215;Citi L100)。

为什么跌:拆股调整后收盘价从 2025-11-10 的 $139.38(约合拆股前 $557)跌至 2026-02-24 的 $87.56(约合拆股前 $350),跌幅约 -37%;2026-03-27 二次探底 $92.39。2026-07-02 起按 4:1 拆股后交易(IBKR 公司行为记录 Splits 20260702, value 4.0;公司 Q1 FY27 业绩会宣布)。 (1) 2025 年承接 2024-07 宕机后遗症:为留住客户推出 customer commitment packages (CCP,免费模块/折扣/延长期限),压制 FY26 收入与指引——2025-03-05 公司发布低于预期的 FY26 指引,股价盘中 -9%(Cybersecurity Dive);CCP 具体金额影响未查到。(2) 2026 年初软件股整体‘AI 取代软件’恐慌外溢到网安:2026-02-05 单日 -9.2%(IBKR;具体诱因在已查来源中未核实)。(3) 2026-02-20 Anthropic 发布 Claude Code Security,市场担心前沿模型直接做漏洞发现/安全,网安股集体下跌:CRWD 2/20 -7.9%、2/23 -9.8%(IBKR 收盘;Nasdaq/Motley Fool 报道盘中 -10.6%,两天近 -20%)。(4) 估值偏高放大跌幅:跌前 >21x sales,‘priced for perfection’(Nasdaq 文章)。注意:同期基本面并未恶化——Q3 FY26 净新增 ARR 已 +73% YoY、Q4 FY26 +47%,跌是叙事/估值驱动(推断)。

AI 怎么变成收入:AI 扩大攻击面→安全需求增加,具体落到 CRWD 计费单位上有四条路径:(1) 端点:Claude Code/Codex 等 agent 运行在员工电脑上,端点重新成为投资重点,且 agent 工作负载运行在独立 VM 中,‘each requiring its own sensor’——直接增加计费端点数;端点业务连续 4 季加速。(2) AIDR:同一个传感器上单独计价的新模块(‘separate and incremental…priced separately’),并按 token 计量。(3) 身份:每个 agent 都需要身份和权限治理(Falcon Shield、SGNL、特权访问)。(4) 云运行时 + NG-SIEM:AI 工作负载在云上容器运行需要运行时防护,AI 产生更多日志进入 SIEM(第三方摄入收费)。另外前沿实验室/AI 芯片/数据中心本身成为新客户(八位数 Flex 订单)。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:大体变多,但有天花板争议。变多:agent 需要宿主机/VM(新增传感器)、云上 AI 工作负载增加(运行时防护)、AIDR/SafeMind 按 token 计量会随 AI 使用量增长、非人身份数量远超员工。变少风险:核心端点数与员工/设备数挂钩,若 AI 压缩白领人数则端点数承压;Bernstein 明确认为 CRWD 等存在‘natural growth limits from endpoint/employee-based pricing versus true consumption software’(TMTB 2026-09-17)。Kurtz 引用行业数据‘90 agents per employee’论证 AIDR TAM 大于 EDR,属管理层说法。 计量的东西是不是自己的:是自己的:计量对象是自有 Falcon 传感器所保护的端点/工作负载、自有平台上的第一方遥测数据、以及自有 AIDR 检测的 AI 流量。SafeMind 模型基于 NVIDIA Nemotron 开源模型+CRWD 自有数据训练,token 不是转售第三方模型 token(公司说法)。潜在风险:若客户把安全决策交给前沿模型自己的安全产品(Claude Code Security、OpenAI 收购 Trail of Bits 传闻),计量点可能被绕开。 产出能不能数:可计数:端点/主机数、云工作负载数、SIEM 第三方摄入量、AIDR token、模块数(6/7/8+ 模块采用率)、Flex 账户数与 re-Flex 次数。产出(阻止的入侵)本身难计数,因此收费仍按覆盖面而非结果。

时间线

  • 2026-03-03 Q4 FY26 业绩(截至 2026-01-31):净新增 ARR $330.7M 创纪录,YoY +47%;ending ARR $5.25B,增速加速到 +24%;FY26 净新增 ARR 首次破 $1.01B;首次给出净新增 ARR 指引:FY27 $1.213-1.264B(+20%~25%);Falcon Flex 账户 ARR $1.69B(+120%+)。 股价:3/4 +4.2%,3/5 +4.5%(IBKR 收盘);当周 +15%(周线 92.995→107.25)。但随后 3/27 回落至 $92.39 二次探底。
  • 2026-03 下旬 RSA ~ 2026-04(Mythos/Project Glasswing) 公司所称‘Mythos moment’:Anthropic Mythos 模型+Project Glasswing(CRWD 为参与方),OpenAI Daybreak/Trusted Access for Cyber(CRWD 为创始成员);CRWD 发起 Project QuiltWorks 合作伙伴联盟:叙事从‘AI 颠覆网安’转为‘AI 需要网安’;管理层称 RSA(3 月底)起客户会议全是保护 AI/影子 AI。尚无同期财务数字(推断)。 股价:4/7 +6.2%,4/9 -7.5%,波动大;真正持续上涨从 5 月开始:5/7 +8.0%(FTNT 业绩带动网安),5/29 +8.9%、6/1 +7.0%,从 4/30 约 $113 涨到 6/1 $195.5(IBKR)。Glasswing 公布具体日期与 4/7 涨幅的对应关系未核实。
  • 2026-06-03 Q1 FY27 业绩 + 宣布 4:1 拆股:净新增 ARR $255.8M(+32% YoY),低于买方预期 >$275M;ending ARR $5.51B(+24%+);收入 $1.39B(+26%);FCF $468.5M(34% 利润率);FY27 净新增 ARR 增速指引上调 520bp 至 27.7%($1.291B);AIDR ARR 环比 +250%+,Q2 pipeline >$50M。买方担心:账单 miss、RPO 环比下降(TMTB)。 股价:6/4 -3.8%,6/5 -6.7%(IBKR 收盘;TMTB 6/3 盘后称 -9%)
  • 2026-07-14 IBM 业绩预警称客户被‘industry-wide cybersecurity concerns’分心:无公司数字;第三方印证网安预算抢占 IT 预算(卖方说法) 股价:+12.1%(IBKR;TMTB: OKTA +11%、CRWD +12%、PANW +7%)
  • 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 业绩(截至 2026-07-31):净新增 ARR $332.8M 创历史纪录,YoY +51%,比指引上限高 $45M+(指引 $284-286M);ending ARR $5.84B,连续第 4 个季度加速到 +25%;收入 $1.47B(+26%,连续第 5 季加速);Flex 账户 ARR $2.29B(+101%),单季新增 935+ Flex 账户;Flex 新客户贡献 34% 净新增 ARR;净/毛留存率环比改善;FY27 净新增 ARR 增速指引再上调 630bp 至 ~34%($1.355B 中值,较年初 22.5% 累计 +1,150bp/+$116M)。 股价:8/27 +20.5%(IBKR;TMTB: +20%,买方预期低 $300M 区间)
  • 2026-09-02 Fal.Con 用户大会 + 投资者简报:FY28 初步框架净新增 ARR +20%+(Jefferies 推算对应 ARR +24.6%,比共识高 ~2pt);$10B ARR 目标从 FY31 提前到 FY30,$20B 从 FY36 提前到 FY35;FY28 FCF 利润率 32.5%;发布 SafeMind(基于 NVIDIA Nemotron 的安全模型,token 包计费,不计入 FY27)和 Falcon Guardian。 股价:9/1 -6.9%、9/2 -5.4%(会前网安普跌),9/3 +5.7%(IBKR;TMTB)
  • 2026-09-14 Anthropic/OpenAI 呼吁放慢前沿进度(‘pace the frontier’),市场解读为安全优先:无公司数字(卖方/市场解读) 股价:+13.9%(IBKR;TMTB: 网安多数 +10%+)

空方论点

  • 估值:约 35-40x 前瞻 EV/Sales,逼近 2020/21 峰值,而 10 年期利率接近 5.5%(TMTB 2026-10-07 引 H-Cap);Bernstein 2026-09-17 在板块 ~100%+ 反弹后下调至 Market Perform。
  • 前沿实验室进入安全:Claude Code Security(2026-02)、OpenAI 洽购 Trail of Bits 且 CFO 称网安将是收入驱动(TMTB 2026-10-14,当日 CRWD -4.6%);‘前沿模型能自己找 0-day,安全厂商的专有检测变成别人 LLM 上的薄包装’(TMTB 2026-07-08)。有买方认为预防(PANW 网络安全)比检测(CRWD)更耐久。
  • Mythos 需求可能是一次性‘Y2K 时刻’:管理层自己用‘cybersecurity's Y2K moment’描述,FY28 净新增 ARR 基数抬高、同比基数变难;FY28 框架仅 +20%+ 净新增 ARR 增长。
  • 计费天花板:核心仍按端点/员工计费,非真正用量型(Bernstein);AIDR 绝对规模未披露,$50M pipeline 相对 $5.8B ARR 仍小。
  • SBC 高且上升:TTM 约 $1.31B(24% 收入),Q2 FY27 单季 27%;FCF 减 SBC 很薄;回购远不足以抵消稀释。
  • Flex 口径与折扣:‘采用 Flex 账户的 ARR’包含这些客户的全部 ARR,增速 +101% 部分来自老客户转换;CFO 承认‘The biggest discounts are our Flex contracts’;前员工称宕机后的折扣逐步到期,但竞争(Microsoft 低价捆绑、PANW)下仍需更多折扣(ThirdBridge)。
  • Q1 FY27 的账单 miss、RPO 环比下降曾被空头视为订单指标不干净(TMTB 2026-06-04);CTO 离职创办 AI 安全基金(TMTB 2026-08-20)。

原文

确认计费单位正在从端点扩展到 token(随 AI 使用量增长),但被包在 Flex 承诺额度内——兼顾用量上行与预算可预期。
Yeah. So, we actually have token-based pricing as part of AIDR. So we already have that today. And what's important from a customer perspective is they do want some certainty on what they're paying. So, we provide a certain number of tokens across an environment, and obviously we scale that to how big the customer is. And then, if they exceed that token usage, they can buy extra token packs. And again, the beauty is it's all consumable via the Falcon Flex licensing. So, it's a model I think that has served us well, where it's not runaway cost for customers; they can define it, they can budget for it. But certainly, as they scale up their AI, if they exceed their budget allowance, they certainly can uplevel the tokens, and it's friction-free to do that with Falcon Flex.
2026-08-26 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · George Kurtz · 2026-08-26-corrected-transcript-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-26-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L374
发言人背景:CrowdStrike 创始人兼 CEO(现任)
AIDR 是增量而非替代 EDR 的定价——AI 直接新增一条计费线,且复用已装传感器、边际成本低。
So, on the first point, it is separate and incremental. It's another module and it's priced separately, which is, again, where we're seeing a lot of the growth. So, that is certainly a good fact to make sure that we clear up if there was any confusion about it. When we think about the beauty of the architecture and the platform, it's still using the same agent. And if you want to enable AIDR, again, that's a license entitlement. It's part of our friction-free deployment. Again, why is Falcon Flex so successful? Why have we been successful immediate time-to-value? You don't have to roll out yet another agent. So that's very important. And when we talk about sort of like the ramp of this, it's been incredible over the last couple of quarters, and we've seen almost the results, sort of, parallel some of the frontier labs' growth. As they continue to add more agents and capabilities, you have customers that are deploying more AI. They actually want to deploy AI faster, and they need to scale incredibly fast. So, when you combine what we're building with – again, it's on the same platform, that's the beauty, but we're able to monetize it separately. We think that's a home run, and we're showing the value to customers, and they're willing to pay for it because it's very unique in the environment. And they don't want to deploy yet another agent, right? They're getting it all with CrowdStrike, and that's what they're looking for.
2026-08-26 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · George Kurtz · 2026-08-26-corrected-transcript-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-26-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L357
发言人背景:CrowdStrike 创始人兼 CEO(现任)
管理层把网安支出挂钩到 AI token 预算这一新预算池,而非存量 IT 预算再分配——反转逻辑的核心论点。
Yeah, I think you have to look at just a crazy inflection point in the adoption of frontier type models, right, and we've all seen the revenue curves with the big players that are out there. So, we're tending to follow the slope of that adoption curve, and the token spend has been just jaw dropping. And when you have that level of adoption, you're going to have incremental funding around security. I think if we look at this realistically, two years ago, there wasn't these big token budgets, right? All of a sudden, there is. And people are finding money and it's incremental and they need to adopt more of it. We have plenty of companies that are tracking token usage not only from the spend standpoint of what are they spending, but they want to know who is spending and are they spending enough or are they going fast enough. So, we've seen it being incremental. And at the end of the day, getting back to something I've said time and time again, if you want to create AI, you need GPUs. If you want to use AI, you need security. And that's what we're finding.
2026-06-03 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · George Kurtz · 2026-06-03-corrected-transcript-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-us-q1-2027-earnings-call-3-june-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L284
发言人背景:CrowdStrike 创始人兼 CEO(现任)
可验证数字:FY27 净新增 ARR 增速指引 22.5%→27.7%→34%,两季累计 +$116M。
Yeah. I think, Brian, the numbers back it up. Look, you start with the record Q3 pipeline. So, that prompted us to raise our full-year guidance by an additional 630 basis points. That means we moved our FY 2027 net new ARR growth rate from 27.7% at the end of last quarter to 34% this quarter. When compared to our initial guide for the year, we raised the growth rate 1,150 basis points or $116 million in just two quarters. That talks to the durability of the things that George talked.
2026-08-26 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Burt Podbere · 2026-08-26-corrected-transcript-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-26-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L268
发言人背景:CrowdStrike CFO(现任)
Flex 机制说明:一次谈判、多年锁定、随时追加 PO;同时承认 Flex 是折扣最大的合同——ARR 提升 40% 的背后是更低单价换更多模块。
So for those that aren't familiar with Flex, it's the most elegant go to market, I think, that's ever been invented, and I wish I could take credit for it. It was the customers coming to us and saying, hey, you don't have 25 modules, you have 26. How do we get access to all of it? So we kind of work through with our customers what would make the most sense for them and we wanted to make it really easy. I mean, as I said earlier, George is from New Jersey. He's just how do we make this so easy for customers to purchase. So we come with this license where basically, you know, you negotiate once and then you've got a deal for a period of time and then you're able to add more but not renegotiate terms. It's already done. It's just adding another PO to an existing contract where the blocker is me, the CFO. But if the business unit owner goes to the CFO and says, Hey, I need more for CrowdStrike, but I'm going to give you back X for something else and the X is going to be more than what we're asking for CrowdStrike, well, you don't need to be a CFO to do the math to say, okay, let's go do that. In the entire life of software and security for sure no one really was able to connect, grab on to a license where you have three winners at the same time. You have the economic buyer, you have the vendor, you know, us and procurement. I've never seen all three of those win at the same time. So the economic buyer wins because they're able to consolidate, get the best outcomes at a cheaper cost. We win because we're locking in our customers for longer, bigger contracts and being bigger supporters and bigger kind of advocates and trusted advisors and procurement wins because they're after the biggest discount. The biggest discounts are our Flex contracts. They get paid based on additional discounts they're able to achieve. And guess what? Flex allows for exactly that. So you have three winners and then you saw some of the stats like we are now have over 2,900 customers on Flex. You mentioned the 40% uplift when we move somebody from a non-Flex to a Flex, that's up from 34% the year before.
2026-09-10 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Burt Podbere · 2026-09-10-raw-transcript-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-us-citi-global-tmt-conference-10-september-2026-11-30-am-et.md L182
发言人背景:CrowdStrike CFO(现任)
解释宕机后 CCP/折扣如何压低 FY26 增长,以及 2026 年折扣到期带来的定价回归(反转的机械性顺风)。
CrowdStrike had a unique trajectory in terms of like discounting practices because for a long time, they were much tighter on not discounting much. Certainly, they do discount, but not discounting too much compared to the competition. Then the big outage in 2024, they were able to retain 97% of customers is the public figure that they released. That was successful. A big way that they did that was by offering significant discounts to customers to say, "Hey, stay with us." Now in 2026 is when a lot of those customers that received a heavy discount for one year or two, some of them have already come off that, but some of them may have received discounts that lasted a little bit longer. Now, we're at a period where CrowdStrike has returned to its normal pricing methods. I see them needing to do a little bit more discounting than in the past, in part, because just the competition is very high. Palo has kept pace. While I speak negatively about Microsoft in terms of efficacy, which is, I think, very true, Microsoft does compete heavily with CrowdStrike and does win a lot of deals still because they're priced much cheaper.
2026-07-17(Third Bridge 访谈,2026-07-22 入库) · ThirdBridge · Jeffrey A. Taylor · 2026-07-22-crowdstrike-soaring-high-on-platform-power-premium-protection.md L142
发言人背景:前 CrowdStrike 品牌战略与市场总监(2022-25,负责竞争情报与品牌广告),已离职;视角偏市场/竞品信息,非销售或财务一线,不掌握具体合同数据
一线渠道印证 AI 安全是新增预算而非重贴标签,与管理层说法一致(但非独立数据)。
That's a great question. So identity, cloud, and endpoint, they're not going anywhere. You can't just shift the spending and neglect those items. So in my opinion this has to be new budget that companies have to find, create, etc. Because this is a new vector of attack, this isn't something we've dealt with in the past.
2026-09-01 · GuidePoint 专家访谈 · Konstantin Shostakovich · 2026-09-01-crowdstrike-latest-quarter-and-the-ai-security-demand-surge-from-a-frontline-strategic-accounts-view.md L251
发言人背景:前 CrowdStrike 西区战略大客户云安全销售专家,已离职(GuidePoint 标注视角为 Reseller);一线销售视角,样本局限于其覆盖的大客户
反方观点:客户对按 token/摄入量计费抵触,token 计费作为增长引擎的持续性存疑。
I think this is an interesting question, and I think we need more time to really understand it because the frontier models price by tokens. It is somewhat accepted that that's how AI is priced, but I don't think that's going to last. I think that's going to shift as no one really knows what their AI token usage is going to be this month, this quarter, this year. I think everyone's trying to just figure it out and the easiest way to get started on that is the token-based pricing that we see today, but I think that's going to change over time. Again, kind of how we spoke about the SIEM piece. Customers aren't happy about pure ingestion pricing. They're not going to be happy with tokenized pricing here where it limits their use and their spikes and unpredictability. So I think that's going to change over the next year quite dramatically.
2026-09-01 · GuidePoint 专家访谈 · Konstantin Shostakovich · 2026-09-01-crowdstrike-latest-quarter-and-the-ai-security-demand-surge-from-a-frontline-strategic-accounts-view.md L388
发言人背景:前 CrowdStrike 西区战略大客户云安全销售专家,已离职;一线销售视角

数据问题

  • 拆股:已核实 CRWD 于 2026-06-03 宣布 4:1 拆股,2026-07-02 开盘起按拆股后价格交易(Q1 FY27 业绩会 L182-183, L214-218;IBKR 公司行为 Splits 20260702 value 4.0)。IBKR 历史价格均已拆股调整,拆股前价格 = IBKR 价格 × 4。Q2 FY27 起公司 EPS/股数均按拆股调整。
  • Q1 FY27 收入用业绩会约数 $1.39B,TTM 收入因此为约数;Q1 FY27 SBC $317.6M 由六个月 $716.6M 减 Q2 $399.0M 推算。
  • SBC 口径:上述 SBC 均含相关雇主税(公司新闻稿口径);不含税的现金流量表口径 FY27 上半年 $674.6M。
  • NRR/GRR 公司只说‘改善’,未披露具体数字;RPO 未查到具体数值(TMTB 称 Q1 FY27 RPO 环比下降)。
  • Falcon Flex ARR 是‘已采用 Flex 订阅模式账户的 ending ARR’,包括这些客户转 Flex 之前已有的 ARR,因此 +101% 增速不等于 Flex 新增收入增速。
  • CCP(宕机后客户承诺套餐)对 FY26 收入/ARR 的具体金额影响未查到。
  • Q3 FY25 净新增 ARR(≈$153M)与 ARR(≈$4.0B)是由后一年增速反推,非直接引用;Q1 FY26 净新增 ARR 的同比增速未查到。
  • 估值:NTM 一致预期收入未查到,EV/NTM Sales 约 35x 为推算;债务约 $0.75B 来自记忆未核实(对结果影响 <0.5%)。
  • 股价日涨跌均为 IBKR 收盘价计算,个别与媒体报道(盘中/盘后)有差异:2/23 Nasdaq 报 -10.6%(盘中)vs 收盘 -9.8%;6/3 TMTB 报盘后 -9% vs 6/4 收盘 -3.8%、6/5 -6.7%。
  • 2026-02-05 单日 -9.2% 的具体诱因未在已查来源中核实;Mythos/Glasswing 精确公布日期未核实。
  • Citi 会议为 FactSet 原始(未更正)转录,可能有转写错误。ThirdBridge 文件 L116(专家谈 Mythos 对股价影响)在 KB 中被截断。
  • 知识库 Substack 仅覆盖 2026-04 以后,2026 年 1-3 月卖方情绪未能从 KB 交叉验证。
反例 MDB · 现价 vs 前高 -20% 10 条原文

做什么:MongoDB 卖文档型(JSON)数据库:云上托管版 Atlas(按用量计费,约占收入 73-75%)和客户自管的 Enterprise Advanced(EA,订阅许可)。买家是写应用的开发者和大企业 IT(金融、科技、媒体、政府),越来越多是 AI-native 公司和前沿实验室,用它存业务数据、做向量检索、当 agent 的记忆层。

怎么收费:混合,以用量为主:Atlas 按用量(算力/存储/集群规格、Search 节点)计费;EA 按年/多年订阅许可;另有 Voyage 嵌入模型 API 按调用计费。Atlas 是消费型收入,按集群实际用量确认,季内用量变化只对当季收入有小幅影响(CFO Q1 FY27 电话会)。EA 按许可确认,多年合同前置确认导致季度波动,公司另报 duration 调整后的 EA ARR(Q2 FY27 约 +11%)。EA 上新推出的 Search/Vector Search 需要额外收费(CJ Desai Q2 FY27 电话会,Q2 文件第 353 行)。

为什么跌:两段:(1) 2025-03-06 Q4 FY25 发布后单日 -27%,2025 年 4 月周线低点 $140.78;(2) 2026 年初从 2026 年 1 月初的周线高点 $444.72 一路跌到 2026-04-13 那周的 $215.68(2026-03-03 Q4 FY26 发布后单日 -22%,收 $253)。 2025 年那段:FY26 指引只有约 12% 增长($2.24-2.28B,市场预期 $2.32B),多年 EA 许可约 $50M 收入减少,Atlas 只增长 24%,市场担心消费放缓、AI 没有带动数据库(公司披露加媒体报道)。2026 年初那段:(a) FY27 指引 $2.86-2.90B,只增长 16-18%,Atlas 指引 21-23%(Q4 是 29%),看上去要明显减速;(b) 软件整体被'AI/coding agent 取代 seat'的逻辑压估值;MDB 不按 seat 收费,但空头的版本是'AI 应用默认用 Postgres'(Lovable→Supabase、Databricks/Snowflake 收购 Postgres 公司),担心 MongoDB 拿不到 AI 工作负载;(c) 新 CEO CJ Desai(2025 年 11 月上任)重组销售、更换管理层,渠道里有扰动和对利润率的审视(TMTB 转述 Cleveland Research 渠道调研)。

AI 怎么变成收入:AI 应用和 agent 需要实时操作型数据、向量检索、长期记忆(对话和状态)。这些读写都在 Atlas 集群上发生,按用量计费,所以 AI 应用用户越多、agent 读写越多,Atlas 消费越多。此外还有几条路径:(1) Voyage 嵌入/重排模型 API 收费,新客户主要由 Claude Code/Codex 等 coding agent 推荐过来;(2) 托管 MCP server 让 coding agent 直接建 Atlas 集群;(3) EA 新增 Search/Vector Search 许可收费;(4) Agent Engine、Atlas Infinite(弹性应对突发的 agent 负载)是新产品,公司说 FY28-29 才会有收入。管理层多次承认目前增长主要还是靠核心企业负载,AI 是'小但加速'。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:变多,但有滞后。计费单位是数据库算力和存储用量。AI 让软件数量和数据量变多(vibe coding、agent 带来大量读写、记忆存储、向量索引),同时 coding agent 降低了迁移成本(老应用现代化)。抵消因素:(1) 8.0/9.0 性能提升会降低单位负载的用量,但管理层说实际效果是客户放进更多负载(ID 第 1490-1503 行,管理层说法);(2) AI 新应用默认选 Postgres,单位虽然变多,却可能流向别家数据库;(3) 企业 AI 负载上线慢,目前大多是内部 copilot,规模不足以拉动 MDB。CJ 说 MongoDB 主要受益于大规模、面向客户的 agent。 计量的东西是不是自己的:是自己的。被计量的是 MongoDB 自有的数据库引擎和托管服务(Atlas 跑在 AWS/Azure/GCP 上,底层云成本是 COGS,但定价权和数据平面在 MDB),不是转卖别人的。EA 是客户自管的自有软件许可。 产出能不能数:可以计数:集群用量、存储量、Search 节点、Voyage API 调用、MCP 连接集群数都能直接计量,收入和用量挂钩。公司没有单独披露 AI 带来的 Atlas 收入,只给了'AI-native 占 3-5%'的时点值,而且说定义会变、不会每季更新。

时间线

  • 2025-08-26 Q2 FY26 业绩(第一次反转,早于 2026 年软件底):Atlas 增速从 26%(Q1 FY26)回升到 29%;收入 $591.4M,+24%;FY26 收入指引从 $2.25-2.29B 上调到 $2.34-2.36B;FCF 从去年同期为负转为 $69.9M 股价:盘前涨超 30%(TIKR);周线收盘从 $219.06 涨到 $315.61(IBKR,周涨约 +44%)
  • 2026-05-28 Q1 FY27 业绩(2026 年这轮反弹的起点):收入 $687.6M,+25%(市场预期约 +21%);Atlas +29.4%(第 4 个季度 ≥29%),比卖方预期的 26% 高约 3pt;NRR 从 119% 升到 121%;FY27 收入指引从 $2.86-2.90B 上调到 $2.92-2.96B,Atlas 全年指引从 21-23% 上调到 23-25%;RPO $1.46B,+88% 股价:盘后先跌约 20%,再急拉 45%(TMTB);5/29 +3%,6/1 +18%('追赶其他消费型股票');当天盘中已经跟随 SNOW 涨 +11%
  • 2026-08(季内) 渠道调研加卖方上调(Citi 90 天催化剂观察、BofA、Guggenheim、Hedgeye):没有新的公司数字;卖方称 Atlas 下载/顶部漏斗加速,AI-native 和实验室持续赢单,Guggenheim 认为 2H Atlas 会重新加速到 30% 左右 股价:8 月单月 +45%,8/13 创 52 周新高(TMTB);8/24 那周周线高点 $473.10(IBKR)
  • 2026-09-01 Q2 FY27 业绩(数字好但股价跌):总收入 $771.8M,+30%(FY24 以来最快);Atlas $565.9M,+28.9%(第 5 个季度在 29% 左右),低于买方 30%+ 的门槛;EA & other +35.9%;NRR 122%;非 GAAP 经营利润率 24%;FY27 收入指引上调到 $2.99-3.03B,Atlas 全年指引到约 27%(上调 300bp),但隐含 Q4 Atlas 约 24% 股价:盘后 -13%,9/2 -14%(TMTB)
  • 2026-09-28 CEO CJ Desai 辞职,转任 Meta 首席企业平台官;前 CEO Dev Ittycheria 回任临时 CEO,公司重申指引:CJ 任职不到 11 个月,立即生效;按 CFO 的说法 CJ 是'上周五'(9/25)辞职,消息 9/28(周一)公开 股价:-18%(TMTB);那周周线低点 $300(IBKR)
  • 2026-09-29 Investor Day,发布新 3 年框架:长期目标:总收入增速从高十位数上调到 20%+;Atlas 从 20%+ 上调到 mid-20s;EA ARR 10%+;每年经营利润率扩张 100-200bp;FCF 转化率 80-100%;FY27 起 GAAP 盈利;新增 $1B 回购。首次披露 AI-native 和前沿实验室占 Atlas 收入 3-5%,同比 +165% 股价:当天 +0.75%(-4% 到 +4% 之间波动),9/30 +3.4%(盘中最高 +9.9%)
  • 2026-10-13 更多管理层离职:CJ 招来的 CCO Erica Volini、AI 产品 CPO Pablo Stern-Plaza 离开,同时有裁员(Wolfe 确认) 股价:-2.2%

空方论点

  • Atlas 没有重新加速:连续 5 个季度停在约 29%,Q2 FY27 低于买方 30%+ 的门槛;FY27 指引隐含 Q4 Atlas 约 24%;新的长期目标 mid-20s 本身就低于 FY27 的约 27%(TMTB 2026-09-02、2026-09-29)
  • AI 太小:AI-native 只占 Atlas 3-5%,另一家基础设施同行约是 3 倍(Scotiabank 在 Investor Day 的提问),DDOG/SNOW 的 AI 叙事更强,估值却相近
  • Postgres 成为 AI/vibe coding 的默认选择(Lovable→Supabase,Databricks/Snowflake 收购 Postgres 公司),空头认为 CJ 离职说明 MDB 不是真正的 AI 受益者(TMTB 2026-09-28;前 SVP Meghan Gill,ThirdBridge 2026-04)
  • 管理层动荡:CEO 任职不到 11 个月就去了 Meta,CJ 招来的 CCO 和 AI CPO 在 10 月离开并有裁员;永久 CEO 未定,Evercore 认为重估要等新 CEO 到位
  • EA 增长靠多年合同前置确认,波动大;2H FY27 指引 EA 大致持平
  • SBC 仍约占收入 20%,FCF 减 SBC 很薄
  • Q2 FY27 增长里有一部分来自 EA,而不是市场更看重的 Atlas 和 AI(FundaAI:'bulls may be disappointed by the mix')

原文

讲清了 AI-native 的进入路径:在其他数据库上撞到扩展瓶颈后迁到 Atlas(ElevenLabs)。同时管理层承认增长主要还是靠核心企业负载。
So, Ryan, first is that AI natives what we are finding and I shared the example of somebody like ElevenLabs at .local in London a few weeks ago. They were using first party database for operational data. They were using another software for search, and basically most of those product lines were really choking as ElevenLabs was growing significantly, right. They are now at a $500 million ARR. So when asked the team, technically the engineer who made that decision saw that the growth of the company as in that AI native company ElevenLabs was being held up by the data layer and us having search, vector search, and operational data in a single platform. They made the decision to move to MongoDB not too long ago. And two things they said that really resonated with me, Ryan. Number one, they are like, gee, we should have done this a lot sooner, otherwise we would have not to deal with all these outages and other things they dealt with the previous platform. And number two, now choosing MongoDB, even though they have scaled significantly on their ARR as an AI native company gives them peace of mind. I'm hearing them from other AI native companies who also chose maybe a Postgres or something, and Postgres completely choked on the performance. So that just gives me a lot of confidence that if AI native company where AI is the business or agentic layer is the business, and they feel that they can scale with MongoDB, when that moves over to the enterprises, whether banks, healthcare and other firms, they will also realize the same thing a little bit later. And as Mike shared and I shared earlier, the contribution is there. We are seeing very encouraging signs right now, but a lot of growth was still driven by core enterprise workloads, which I would argue are also getting ready for AI work (00:41:06).
2026-05-28 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · CJ Desai · 2026-05-29-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-q1-2027-earnings-call-28-may-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L277
发言人背景:时任 MongoDB 总裁兼 CEO(2025-11 至 2026-09-25,之后去 Meta)
公司口径的 Atlas 驱动是大企业和美国区,AI 的贡献'仍小'。这说明 2026 年这轮反弹靠的是核心业务稳定在 29%,而不是 AI 带来的加速。
So, as we talked about, we feel very good about the Atlas business. And what we look at is this was the fifth straight quarter of approximately 29% year-over-year growth, very consistent. We've increased the full-year guidance by 300 basis points from the previous guide, and that is also buttressed by a record net new $127 million net new Atlas dollars, as well as the increase in the net ARR expansion rate, and now Atlas is almost a $2.3 billion run rate. So as we look forward, we continue to expect really good growth from our larger enterprise customers, especially in the US. We started to see some benefit from AI even though it's small, but we are excited about the momentum, and we do expect consumption to continue to be consistent with what we've seen during the first half of the year.
2026-09-01 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Michael Berry · 2026-09-01-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-1-september-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L228
发言人背景:MongoDB CFO
指引框架是当季保守 200-300bp、远期季度更保守。市场按这个框架来解读'隐含 Q4 24%'。
Yeah. Thank you. Great answer, CJ. I just want to underline what he said, is our guidance philosophy, Alex, has not changed in terms of how we guided the rest of the year. We'll always be prudent more than a quarter out, and that's what's reflected in the guidance. I also want to address your comment about Q4 and just be super clear on the call. Hey, there were no large bundled deals in the quarter. There was none of that Q4 dynamic this quarter.
2026-09-01 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Michael Berry · 2026-09-01-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-1-september-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L266
发言人背景:MongoDB CFO
说清了哪类 AI 负载会拉动 MDB:大规模、面向客户的 agent。内部 copilot 用不上 MDB。这也解释了为什么企业 AI 对 MDB 的拉动比对数据仓库更晚。
Absolutely. So, what I have seen, and this is across many conversations, Karl, is – I'm just going to first look at the bucket of enterprise, okay. Enterprise is as in whether you want to say Global 2000 or Fortune 500 or Fortune 100. When I look at those, MongoDB was always – almost always a database platform that was used for customer-facing workload. Whether it's insurance claims, healthcare policies, whether it's credit card transactions and getting the fast data for the end users, MongoDB always shines when it is a massive workload that is customer-facing. What I'm seeing is initially, say you are a wealth manager at a bank and there are lots and lots of knowledge base articles that you want to vectorize, use our embeddings and then use as a chatbot for folks that are doing wealth management and talking to clients real time, that is one very specific example where a particular large bank is using MongoDB. There are also other examples where because there are lots and lots of documents, employee-facing use cases where knowledge base articles so that employees can leverage, do a search because now search is fully integrated into the operational data and documents get loaded, and then embeddings make the vectorization better, that will be another large enterprise example where we are seeing use cases. But the clarity that I got was that it was almost always, hey, we want to use MongoDB where the scale matters on the agents that we are trying to create for our customer-facing activities, whatever the customer-facing activities are. We are not seeing early traction with, hey, I created a Copilot kind of a thing that appeals to a couple of hundred employees. We are not seeing MongoDB being used because they are like, hey, this is too big, MongoDB, of course, gives us scale and all this other functionality. So that's number one. And, Karl, the other thing I would say is when you look at AI natives, including I'm going to put Frontier Labs in there, but you look at the example that I shared which was on EU or whether it was Fireflies, which are agents in production, but when you look at these agents in production, we have used ElevenLabs in the past and others, these are millions of agents in production that are doing something that is customer-facing, and they would say, we want to use MongoDB for scale, performance and, of course, run anywhere, and that's where you're using it. So these are the two vectors that I'm seeing. In enterprises, our agents going into production, where it makes sense on Atlas, okay, let's do that. And on EA that I touched on in my prepared remarks, make no mistake, as they – these regulated industries are trying to get their operational data AI-ready, was also the reason EA growth was driven across the industry including tech where customers says, hey, I'm building an AI agent for my tech, whatever technology platform uses MongoDB or technology company, and we saw the growth there. So that would be my overall summary on where we are seeing, and I'm going to have Mike comment anything additional if you need it.
2026-09-01 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · CJ Desai · 2026-09-01-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-1-september-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L298
发言人背景:时任 MongoDB CEO
第一次量化 AI-native 敞口:占 Atlas 3-5%,同比 +165%。
All right, I'm going to give you a second to stare at this chart. On the left – your left is the number of customer count in the AI native cohort that I just defined for you. On the right is the revenue for Atlas and the percent growth. As we sit here today, AI natives make up less than 5% of the Atlas revenue. I'm just going to cut the question off. When you think of that, think of 3% to 5% as we sit here today. Okay? But look at that incredible growth, 65% (sic) [67%] (03:21:05), 129%, 165%. We talk a lot about this which is it's still small, but it's growing very, very quickly and this is why we're comfortable with this continuing to drive growth in the future and it's off of a small base, but it's super powerful.
2026-09-29 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Michael Berry · 2026-09-30-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-investor-day-29-september-2026-11-00-am-et.md L1145
发言人背景:MongoDB CFO
CFO 直接承认核心(非 AI)部分的占比在下降,mid-20s 目标里没有计入企业 AI 的上行空间。
Sure. So, as we look at Atlas, and we've said it multiple times in the last several quarters, we continue to feel very good about the Atlas business. Technically, going from 3% to 5%, the 3% was a big thing, Alex. It allowed us to say, hey, what do we really see call it in the near term? And we've seen all the growth that has been driven by the move-up market, which has been significant, that as we look at the geo expansion, the new products, as well as the platform and that is going to over time hopefully start to monetize. Again, good usage, but it needs to monetize more as we look at that. And then of course, you have the AI natives. So underneath the covers, I mean, look at the AI natives are 3% to 5%. It means the core by definition as a percentage continues to call it slow down but the dollars continue to grow. And we look at that over the next three years and we feel very good about growth in both of those and we really haven't baked in a lot of upside for enterprise AI. It's the thing we talk to you, folks, the most about in the question earlier on when is that going to pick up. And at some point, keep in mind AMP is great. Dev did a great job of through that. We also want sales to be able to sell it. That's going to help both self-manage in Atlas, but we do expect growth there. So, the confidence is in the go-to-market engine, the growth we see in our larger customers, the new product and continued growth in AI natives.
2026-09-29 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Michael Berry · 2026-09-30-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-investor-day-29-september-2026-11-00-am-et.md L1478
发言人背景:MongoDB CFO
回应'性能提升会减少用量'的担忧:管理层说 8.0 之后客户反而放进更多负载(类似杰文斯悖论),这是用量模型能受益于 AI 的关键假设(管理层说法)。
If I can just add one other thing that I think is working is also gives me confidence that I have the benefit of stepping back and now stepping back in is that when we launched 8.0, there was some concern both in the investor community is that going to cannibalize some of your business, right, because, if you're providing 30%, 40%, 50% faster machine, this is going to need to use less gas. Well, it turned out that they wanted to drive that car more because they put more workloads on it because they saw so much benefit. And the fact that 80% of our fleet is already at 8.0 faster, two times faster than any other prior release gives us confidence that that same phenomenon will happen with 9.0 because 9.0 is that much more performant and that's a pretty material data point. (04:03:38) whether Atlas Infinite where you feel like is there cannibalization risk concern is completely net (04:03:57) to growth? No. And let me address that. Ever since I've been at MongoDB, MongoDB has been viewed as a great technology. No one has ever questioned the caliber the technology built. Some people have questioned are you – some people used the term Ferrari or turbo sports car. It's great for certain workloads for the mainstream meat and potatoes. Sometimes there's internal workloads that don't need all the sizzle. Maybe MongoDB is not the right profile for. By increasing the price performance, we make it just that much easier for people to put more and more workloads on MongoDB. So, it helps our expansion to larger accounts because there's more workloads we can track, it helps our upsells and cross-sells in our existing customers and obviously, we can go after these new AI workloads as well.
2026-09-29 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Dev Ittycheria · 2026-09-30-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-investor-day-29-september-2026-11-00-am-et.md L1490
发言人背景:MongoDB 临时总裁兼 CEO(2014-2025 年任 CEO,2026-09-25 回任)
评价 CJ 的贡献在 C-level 销售,但强调不是一个人的功劳,意在淡化 CEO 离职的影响。
Yeah. So thanks for the question. First, I would say I think what CJ did well was he really elevated the company to be able to sell at the C-level. He has a pretty big rolodex coming from ServiceNow where he knew a lot of senior decision makers. And historically, with infrastructure software, you have to sell both at the end user level because you have to get people buy in because no one's going to try and shove infrastructure software down and user's throats unlike application software. And then you have to still sell high to kind of get the economic buyers bought into whatever the compelling reason is. And I think he, especially in some key accounts where he had deep relationships, he helped us I would say accelerate deals. But what I'll also tell you is that and I've seen this myself, I show up at a C-level, we shake hands and a deal happens, it wasn't because of that meeting. It's all the ground work that had happened before that meeting to set the stage for us to kind of consummate the deal. And so, I don't want to suggest that that was a one man show. It was really the go-to-market team who really helped galvanize the momentum in those accounts. But clearly, CJ added some value on key accounts where he helped push the deals over the line.
2026-09-29 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Dev Ittycheria · 2026-09-30-corrected-transcript-mongodb-inc-mdb-us-investor-day-29-september-2026-11-00-am-et.md L82
发言人背景:MongoDB 临时总裁兼 CEO
空头核心论点的内部人版本:AI/vibe coding 平台默认用 Postgres(Supabase),MongoDB 在新开发者里的心智份额受威胁。
I think the main thing is that is the growing… It's funny. I don't think it's specific to AI. I think it's just more around Postgres gaining so much popularity. I'll give you an example, if you are vibe coding on Lovable, which is a very popular vibe coding platform and you need a database, Lovable will default you to using Supabase, which is hosted Postgres. Any vibe coder is automatically putting their data in Postgres if they're using Lovable. I think unless MongoDB starts getting into those kinds of partnerships, that will be a challenge for them to grow.
2026-04-17 · ThirdBridge · Meghan Gill · 2026-04-22-mongodb-go-to-market-evolution-consumption-dynamics-for-ai-workloads.md L38
发言人背景:MongoDB 前 SVP 销售运营与销售发展(2009 年底加入,第一个 GTM 员工,在职 15 年,访谈时已离职一年多);视角局限:离职超过一年,不掌握 2026 年内部数据,偏 GTM 视角
2026 年 Q1 渠道端看到的是 AI 拉动不及预期、向量数据库差异化不足,新增主要来自忠实老客户。这和公司'AI 小但加速'的说法一致,是反弹前夕的谨慎证据。
It was, but our leadership had pushed us to that 15% mark. It's what we're hoping for, but we did not see as much AI work from a MongoDB perspective as what we were hoping for, as well as the other core differentiator that we didn't see as much of a competitive advantage for MongoDB when it came to selecting your vector database layer. And so I think one of the things that we're hoping for is more of that differentiation from MongoDB to say why do we need to use you as our vector DB of choice? And what are you offering in addition from an AI tool perspective that would separate you from the pack? And so unfortunately, although we had a lot of buzz and evaluations of MongoDB, we just didn't have as much pull-through that said, hey, we're definitely going the MongoDB route. That is the thing that we're seeing with MongoDB. There's a very loyal user base to MongoDB because it's been around for, you know, over 15 years, and that loyal MongoDB base is the one that will say yes, we're doing it. But if you don't have that, then it's a very crowded field and then it's a pick of choice of hey, pick a flavor and we're moving forward with that. That's what I'm seeing in the field from a MongoDB perspective.
2026-05-20(访谈) · GuidePoint 专家访谈 · Felix Chen · 2026-05-20-snowflake-and-mongodb-may-2026-channel-check-with-a-vp-of-data-and-ai.md L238
发言人背景:Launch Consulting Group VP of Data and AI(现任,咨询/实施渠道方);视角局限:只代表一家渠道商的项目样本,数字是其自身 MDB 业务增速而非 MDB 整体

数据问题

  • CEO 变更核实:CJ Desai 是 2025-11 从 Dev Ittycheria 手里接任 CEO(Q3 FY26 新闻稿);按 CFO 在 Investor Day 的说法,他是'上周五'辞职(推断为 2026-09-25),消息 2026-09-28(周一)公开,去 Meta 任首席企业平台官。项目记忆写的'2026-09-28 离职'对应的是公告日,辞职日应为 9/25。
  • Q2 FY27 电话会里 EA & other 增速前后不一致:开场 CEO 和 CFO 说 36%,后面 CFO 又说'approximately 30%';按新闻稿算是 +35.9%,以新闻稿为准。
  • FY26 季度的 NRR 和 RPO 未查到(KB 没有 FY26 电话会转录);Q1/Q2 FY26 的 119% 来自 FY27 电话会给出的去年同期值。Hedgeye(TMTB 2026-08-27)称 NRR'recovered to 121%',暗示中间有过下降,但具体数值未查到。
  • Q3 FY25(2024-10)及更早季度未查,所以 quarterly 只有 7 个季度。
  • '2026 年的拐点事件':股价底在 2026-04-13 那周($215.68,IBKR 周线),基本面拐点是 2026-05-28 的 Q1 FY27 业绩(Atlas 比卖方高 3pt、全年指引上调 200bp)。需要注意,Atlas 增速其实早在 2025-08(Q2 FY26)就从 26% 回到 29%,此后连续 5-6 个季度保持在约 29%,没有出现'加速到 30%+'。所以 2026 年这轮反弹更像是 FY27 指引过度保守之后的预期修复,加上 AI 期权估值,而不是增速再拐点。
  • ElevenLabs 的 '$500M ARR' 是 ElevenLabs 公司自身的 ARR(Q1 电话会原话),TMTB 9/10 写成'above $500m ARR on Atlas',表述有歧义,不能理解为 MDB 从它那里收 $500M。
  • 估值:NTM 一致预期收入和增速未查到;EV/Sales 是用 FY27 指引自行推算的,Evercore 的 8x 是 CY27 口径、价格日期在 9/30 左右。市值 $28.09B 取自 Motley Fool 页面的报价快照(10/19/26),没有独立核对股本。
  • Atlas 美元额:Q3 FY26($471.2M)是用 75% 占比推算的,媒体给出 $471.2M;Q1 FY26 是用六个月数减 Q2 推算的;Q4 FY25 只有增速。
  • KB 里没有 Q4 FY26(2026-03)业绩会转录,该季 FY27 Atlas 指引 21-23% 来自 TMTB(2026-05-29 morning wrap 第 56 行:'raised to 23–25% from 21–23%'),不是公司原文。
  • TMTB 中的股价涨跌和卖方观点是 newsletter 转述,属于卖方/市场说法。
seat 落后者 CRM · 现价 vs 前高 -33% 3 条原文

做什么:Salesforce 卖 CRM 应用 (Sales Cloud、Service Cloud、Marketing/Commerce)、Slack、Tableau、MuleSoft、Data 360 (含 2025 年 11 月并入的 Informatica) 以及 AI agent 产品 Agentforce。客户是各行业企业的销售、客服、市场、IT 团队,传统上按每个用户每月订阅收费。

怎么收费:混合,以 seat 为主。公司披露:员工/知识工作者场景走按 seat 的高级版 (Agentforce One Edition/A1E、Agentforce for Apps/A4X、Max 版),客户面向的自主 agent 走 Flex Credits、承诺用量 (Salesforce Commit)、超额计费、ILA 无限协议或按结果计费。Benioff 原话:'We're still trapped in some ways in old, per user pricing models.' 卖方 (DB 转述 Investor Day):Max 版 $550/user/month,升级通常带来 60-80% 价格提升,高级 SKU 渗透率约 5%。

为什么跌:2025 年全年至 2026 年 6 月 (52 周低点 $146.32 出现在 2026 年 6 月,晚于 IGV 3-4 月见底) 市场担心 AI agent/coding agent 压缩按 seat 收费的基数,Benioff 在 Q2 会上把这叫做 'SaaS-pocalypse';同时有机增长只有中个位数 (Q2 FY27 约 6.4-7%),收入增速主要靠 Informatica 等并购撑在 11%;Marketing/Commerce/Tableau 持续疲弱;担心 Claude/ChatGPT 这类界面拿走交互层 (headless 风险)。

AI 怎么变成收入:三条路径:(1) 高级版 seat 升级 (A1E/A4X/Max,溢价 60-80%),靠的是现有 seat 数和更高单价;(2) 客户面向的 agent 按 Flex Credits/AWU 计量,用量越多收得越多;(3) Headless/Claudeforce:外部模型界面调用 Salesforce 的数据、元数据和权限,Salesforce 靠必需的 user license、高级 SKU 和增量用量变现 (与 Anthropic 不分成)。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:大体中性,有好有坏。seat 部分:公司称 Sales/Service/Slack seat 同比增长,但核心 Service 增速只有约 5%,Marketing 在下滑 (TMTB),AI 主要推高单价 (升级) 而不是 seat 数量。用量部分 (AWU/Flex Credits) 跟着 agent 活动增长,但只占收入约 3%。推断:只要收入大头还按 seat 收,AI 带来的效率提升在长期仍可能压低 seat 数。 计量的东西是不是自己的:部分是自己的。被计量的是 Salesforce 平台上的 agent 动作 (AWU) 和 CRM 数据/工作流,这些是它自己的;但底层 token 来自第三方模型,Claudeforce 模式下客户跟 Anthropic 直接签 token 合同,交互层可能落到别人手里。 产出能不能数:部分可数:AWU、对话数、自主解决率 (自家 Help Agent 64%) 都能计数;按业务结果收费仍在早期,例如某 $40M 客户还在谈结果计价方案。

时间线

  • 2026-05-27 Q1 FY27 业绩:收入 $11.13B,cc +12%;cRPO $33.6B,cc +13% (与指引持平);Agentforce ARR 突破 $1B;FY27 收入指引中值上调至 $45.9-46.2B,S&S 增速仍约 11% cc 股价:-1% (TMTB:'yawn-er of a print')
  • 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 业绩 + Claudeforce 发布:收入 $11.35B,+11% (约 $456M 来自 Informatica,有机约 6.4-7%);cRPO cc +14%,比指引高 1pt;Agentforce ARR $1.5B (Q1 时 >$1B,口径扩大到含 Slackbot 和 Headless);FY27 收入指引上调 $300M (cc),其中有机贡献 $100M,Contentful+Fin 并购贡献 $200M;net new AOV 增速为四年最强 股价:+10% (TMTB)

空方论点

  • 有机增长只有约 6-7%,靠 Informatica、Contentful、Fin 等并购把表观增速撑在 11-12%;FY27 指引上调的大头来自并购 (TMTB)
  • Agentforce ARR 口径不断扩大 (纳入 Slackbot、Headless),环比不好比,而且只占收入约 3%
  • Headless 和 Claudeforce 可能让 Salesforce 只剩记录系统 (system of record),高价值的交互层流向 Claude、ChatGPT
  • 高级版涨价可能只是在抵消 seat 压力,而不是带来新的工作负载周期;毛利率下降约 80bps,OM 和 FCF 指引没有上调
  • MuleSoft 面临定价压力,Integration & Analytics 下滑 6%

原文

说明 CRM 正从纯 seat 转向'所有计价方式都做':seat、按 agent、consumption、按结果,并称这有助于签大单。这是对'seat 模式过时'的直接回应。
Can I take that? Yeah, I'm going to have to turn it over to Miguel, but the first thing I'll tell you is, we offer our customers a wide variety of capabilities, products, and functionality. And you mentioned Agentforce is one. Coworker, if you haven't seen Coworker, it's our fastest growing AI product. We have another superfast growing product, Slackbot. We expect Claudeforce to be growing superfast. Agentforce also is growing superfast. We have a lot of them. And what we're trying to do is let customers have very flexible capability so that they can choose all of them and grow with them as they want. And we have these new bundles that you've already heard about. And these new bundles let customers do that. See, customers want to buy and want to price in different ways. This is something I've learned really aggressively recently. Some are still buying by user and by agent, and that's important for them. Some of them want it by consumption, and that's important to them. Some of them are just basic usage customers and they want to pay that way. Some of them even want to pay by outcome, and that outcome could be by a transaction outcome or a business outcome. Because customers want that kind of diversity in pricing, we've created a high level of flexibility. And that, I think, has really expanded our ability to sign very large transactions with our customers.
2026-08-26 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Marc Benioff · 2026-08-27-corrected-transcript-salesforce-inc-crm-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-26-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L484
发言人背景:Salesforce 联合创始人、董事长兼 CEO (现任);管理层视角,倾向乐观
CEO 亲口承认'仍困在按用户计价模式里'。agent 活动暴增,但目前没有转化成对应的收入弹性,这是它和反弹赢家的关键区别。
Yeah. And I think that that's what's really key. I think your question is so good, Gabriela. I'll tell you why it's so good, because I think that if you would ask us a year ago, we'd be like, well, we don't really know. But I think now what we see is, wow, all this new action on the network, call it agentic action, new user interfaces, new applications. It's just a lot more activity on our service. I mean, the amount of action at Salesforce on our service, the value that we're adding, the actual value that we can give to our customers is immense. So have we fully optimized that yet? No way. We're still trapped in some ways in old, per user pricing models. But the opportunity to build much more aggressive pricing to really represent the value that we're offering our customers, I think is enormous. And Miguel is really at the very beginning of what I think will be one of the most exciting journeys he's ever been on.
2026-08-26 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Marc Benioff · 2026-08-27-corrected-transcript-salesforce-inc-crm-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-26-august-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L562
发言人背景:Salesforce 联合创始人、董事长兼 CEO (现任)
量化了有机增速 (约 6.4-7%) 和各云的分项增速,说明 AI 指标亮眼的同时核心业务仍在中个位数增长。
**The bear case** is that this was a narrative-improving quarter rather than a fundamental step-change. Reported revenue grew 10.8%, but approximately $456M came from Informatica, leaving organic growth around 6.4–7%. F3Q organic growth is still estimated at only 6–8%, while most of the FY27 guide increase came from Contentful and Fin. Even mgmt’s stated $100M organic raise falls to roughly $65M after accounting for the quarterly revenue upside. Sales growth slowed to 9%, Service remained at 5%, Marketing still declined and Integration and Analytics fell 6%. Total RPO growth of 10.7% was below Street, and Data 360, Platform and Other decelerated from 23% to 20%. The central bear argument is therefore that CRM is buying enough growth to preserve an 11–12% headline while the mature core remains in the mid-single digits.
2026-08-27 · Substack · TMTB Morning Wrap (作者匿名) · 2026-08-27-tmtb-morning-wrap.md L183
发言人背景:TMTB (Tech/Media/Telecom Breakfast) Substack 卖方/买方摘要通讯,作者匿名,汇总当日 sell-side 研报与 buy-side 讨论;视角:交易导向、偏短期股价反应,非公司内部信息

数据问题

  • 52 周低点出现在 2026 年 6 月 ($146.32 盘中),不是 3-4 月;6 月到 10 月股价反弹约 +64%,Q2 业绩后单日 +10%,所以 CRM 从底部反弹的幅度并不弱。'没强劲反弹'只在 YTD (-8%) 和 1 年 (基本持平) 口径下成立
  • FY26 前三季度营收 yoy 由第三方 vcpscanner 季度营收计算,未用公司 cc 口径
  • Agentforce ARR 口径变化:Q4 FY26 $800M → Q1 >$1B → Q2 $1.5B (含 Slackbot、Headless 360)
  • EV/NTM Sales 和 NTM 一致预期增速未查到可靠来源
seat 落后者 NOW · 现价 vs 前高 -35% 3 条原文

做什么:ServiceNow 卖企业工作流平台:IT 服务管理 (ITSM)、IT 资产管理、安全与风险、HR/员工服务、客服/CRM、低代码开发,2026 年并购 Moveworks、Veza、Armis 后扩展到身份和设备安全。客户主要是大型企业和政府的 IT 部门与 CIO。

怎么收费:混合,以 seat/订阅为主,叠加 assist (用量) 包。公司披露:hybrid pricing = license + usage,'50%, 5-0, of our net new business is already non-seat based';Pro Plus SKU 涨价 >30%,新 AI-native SKU 涨价 20-30%;公司明确不做独立的 outcome-based 计价。Funda 渠道调研:7 月 1 日新价目表生效,北美实际涨价 14-32%,欧洲 10-12%。

为什么跌:2025 年下半年至 2026 年 4 月 (52 周低点 $81.25,出现在 2026 年 4 月 Q1 业绩后;股价已按 2025 年底 5:1 拆股调整) 市场担心 AI agent 压缩 IT/HR 坐席;Q1 2026 因伊朗战争导致中东大型 on-prem 合同延迟,下调指引,加上利润率担忧,业绩后单日大跌 (媒体报道为 -17% 到 -18%,'worst day ever');另外担心并购 (Armis 等) 在掩盖有机放缓。

AI 怎么变成收入:AI 主要通过 SKU 升级打包变现 (Pro Plus、AI-native SKU 涨价 20-30%+),同时 assist 包按用量计费;L1 自主 agent 处理复杂任务会消耗更多 assist;AI Control Tower 管理企业里的所有 agent,把治理需求带进安全业务 (Armis/Veza)。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:计费单位以 seat 和 SKU 层级为主。管理层称活跃 seat 在增长,但 AI 的增量主要来自涨价和升级,不是用量。Funda 渠道调研发现 Now Assist 实际使用量环比持平甚至略降。推断:AI 自动化 L1 工单会减少人工坐席需求,长期对 seat 是减项,只能靠 assist 用量补回来。 计量的东西是不是自己的:是自己的:工作流、CMDB 数据、平台上的 assist 动作都是 ServiceNow 自己的平台资产 (称平台跑 7 万亿次 workflow);模型 token 部分走超大规模云厂商,并导致订阅毛利率指引降到 81%。 产出能不能数:可数:工单自主解决率 (L1 agent 80-85% 请求无需人工)、assist 次数、解决时间 (2 天→20 分钟) 都能计量;公司拒绝单独定义结果计价指标。

时间线

  • 2026-07-22 Q2 2026 业绩:订阅收入 cc +23%,比指引上限高 1.5pt;cRPO cc +21.5% (有机约 19.3%),比指引高 2pt;AI ACV 突破 $1B;但全年订阅收入指引只上调 $15M (Q2 超预期 $31M),有机增速指引 18.6-18.7%;约一半超预期来自提前确认的 on-prem 收入 股价:7/23 收盘 $91.94,比 7/22 的 $95.46 跌 3.7% (IBKR 日线);随后 8 月下旬随软件板块大涨,8/27 单日约 +10%

空方论点

  • 有机增速在约 18-19%,表观增速被 Armis、Moveworks 抬高 (Q3 cRPO 指引里 2.5pt 来自并购)
  • Q2 超预期一半来自 on-prem 提前确认和 7/1 涨价前的提前续约,全年指引上调幅度很小
  • 合同期限变长 (欧洲客户签 3 年合同换 40-50% 折扣) 美化了 cRPO/RPO
  • AI ACV 增长更多靠打包和 SKU 重组,真实用量增长有限 (Funda 渠道调研)
  • Q4 续约季 (约 40% 客户年底续约) 才是 Prime 升级和真实用量的检验点

原文

直接回应 seat 压缩担忧:50% 的 net new 已经不按 seat 计价,但保留 seat 是因为客户要可预测性,说明它没有像赢家那样转向纯用量计价。
Here's a rapid fire round for you. Are we worried about seat compression? Not at all. Our addressable user base is growing, and 50%, 5-0, of our net new business is already non-seat based. We keep seat-based pricing because customers prefer it for predictability, particularly now, where a lot of pricing out there has been less than predictable. Are customers going to build their own? I've yet to meet a customer who would even consider it. The best tech leaders know. It will cost 5x to 10x to build an agent, versus run one on ServiceNow.
2026-07-22 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Bill McDermott (William R. McDermott) · 2026-07-22-corrected-transcript-servicenow-inc-now-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-22-july-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L141
发言人背景:ServiceNow 董事长兼 CEO (现任);管理层视角
解释 hybrid (license + usage) 计价的逻辑,并明确拒绝独立的结果计价,'用得多就说明有结果'。
Yeah. Hey, Tal. So we've been very clear in terms of keeping our pricing very customer-friendly and thinking about how they want to adopt our products and where they see value. So we're never trying to kind of do strange things, which is very hard to manage or hard to understand. So, hybrid pricing structure, which we introduced, where it's a combination of license and usage, directly applies to giving the customer predictability and flexibility. And when you use more, that means you are getting good outcomes, otherwise you will not use more. So, outcome is already tied in the underlying assumption of usage, right? So, trying to kind of define another metric, which is very hard to understand or measure, and then have to go back and forth in terms of contracts and everything else, in enterprise software doesn't work and we've seen that for years, and it's played out so well for us now because the way we have addressed our pricing requests from customers seems to resonate with everyone. Right? So, that's really how we're thinking about it. And the question you asked about tokens and things like that, it's really based on the outcome in terms of what you get, the result, the full solution, versus just counting each of the individual pieces of LLMs or things like that. So, customers are seeing the outcome from the usage, but they're also now being very predictable in terms of what they will pay us. And that has worked quite well.
2026-07-22 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Amit Zavery (按发言顺序推断) · 2026-07-22-corrected-transcript-servicenow-inc-now-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-22-july-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L284
发言人背景:ServiceNow 总裁、首席产品官兼 COO (现任);转录稿未标注每段发言人,由问答顺序推断
渠道调研显示 AI 用量占新 ACV 只有 6-12%,AI ACV 主要靠打包,所以 AI 还没有变成用量收入引擎。
The gap between management’s AI numbers and real usage in our channel feedback persists: checks show 2Q Now Assist real usage flat to slightly worse vs. 1Q, and customers’ AI-driven consumption at only 6-12% of new ACV (management’s broad definition puts it at 40-50%); the AI ACV expansion is driven more by pricing bundling and SKU restructuring, and metrics like the 9x growth in agentic AI customers come off very low bases.
2026-07-23 · Substack · Funda AI 研究团队 · 2026-07-23-review-now-2q26-pull-forward-expected-restrained-full-year-guide.md L118
发言人背景:Funda AI (fundaai@substack.com) Substack 研究,基于渠道调研 (MSP/经销商) 与业绩会;独立研究机构,非公司人员;渠道样本有限,可能偏北美/欧洲经销商视角

数据问题

  • NOW 从 4 月低点反弹 +80%,幅度并不小;YTD 仍为 -5%,1 年 -19%。放进'反弹不强'组要说明是按 YTD 口径
  • vcpscanner 的营收为总收入,公司主口径是订阅收入 cc 增速,两者不完全可比
  • Q1 2026 单日跌幅只引用了媒体标题 (-17%/-18%),未逐条核对
  • Q1 订阅收入 cc 增速和 Now Assist 具体金额未摘录
  • pricing 回答的发言人系推断
seat 落后者 WDAY · 现价 vs 前高 -29% 3 条原文

做什么:Workday 卖云端 HR (HCM:人事、薪酬、招聘) 和财务 (Financials:总账、采购、规划) 软件,客户是大中型企业的 HR 和 CFO 部门;传统上按员工人数 (FSE,全职员工当量) 签多年订阅。

怎么收费:按员工人数订阅 (headcount-based) 为主,新增 Flex Credits 用量。公司披露:大量 AI 新产品按 Flex Credits 消费计费,客户需先签 UMSA (Universal Main Service Agreement);已有超过一半客户迁移到 UMSA,但 Q2 只有约 200 家签了 Flex Credits (对比 5,500 家在用自研 agent)。CEO 称正在 'aggressively moving towards a hybrid model between subscription and this consumption model'。按员工人数计费的细节摘自公司惯例,本次 KB 未逐字核实。

为什么跌:2025 年下半年至 2026 年 4-6 月 (52 周低点 $110.36,2026 年 4 月;6 月再测 $111.5) 市场担心 AI 减少白领岗位,而 Workday 按员工人数收费,直接受伤;另外核心 HCM/FINS 新客户需求偏软,收入增速从 FY26 约 14% 降到 FY27 约 11-13%;AI 是替代旧预算还是带来增量也有争议。

AI 怎么变成收入:AI agent (招聘、自助服务、合同、规划) 通过 AI SKU 和 Flex Credits 收费;Sana 成为默认首页;Data Cloud 和 MCP 让外部 agent 读写 Workday 数据,也按 Flex Credits 收费。核心逻辑是靠'记录系统 + 权限'收过路费。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:偏负面。计费单位是员工人数,AI 提升白领效率、减少招聘时,企业员工数增长放缓甚至下降,计费基数随之受压。AI 自身走 Flex Credits,但签约客户只有约 200 家,管理层称收入有'months or a year'的滞后。 计量的东西是不是自己的:是自己的:HR/财务记录、权限和流程是 Workday 自有的记录系统;外部 agent 通过 Data Cloud/MCP 访问时也要付费。 产出能不能数:可数:面试安排数 (一个季度 800 万次)、合同处理量、HR 工单解决都能计数,但目前计费没有和这些产出挂钩。

时间线

  • 2026-05-21 Q1 FY27 业绩:订阅收入 $2.354B,+14%;cRPO $8.81B,+15.5%;未上调全年收入指引,Q2 cRPO 指引偏软 (13.5-14.5%) 股价:+6% (TMTB:'clean relief print')
  • 2026-08-27 Q2 FY27 业绩:订阅收入 $2.471B,+14%;cRPO +14.2%;AI SKU ARR 近 $600M (+200% y/y);全年订阅收入指引 $9.94-9.95B (+13%),上调幅度小于 Q2 超预期;FY28 订阅增速目标约 11% 股价:盘后从 -6% 拉回到 +1% (TMTB first take)
  • 2026-10-13 Financial Analyst Day:重申 FY28 约 11% 收入增长、OM 扩张约 200bps,没给 FY29+ 展望;AI 预计贡献 FY28 增量 ARR 的约 70% 股价:当日 -1.2% (TMTB EOD,会前)

空方论点

  • 收入增速从 FY26 约 14% 降到 FY27 约 13%、FY28 约 11%,AI 还没让增长加速 (UBS)
  • 按员工人数计费,正好是 AI 取代白领论点的直接受害者
  • Flex Credits 渗透很低 (200 家 vs 5,500 家在用 agent),收入确认有滞后
  • AI 更像替代旧预算而非增量 (Kirk Materne 提问);FINS 业务评论有限
  • 总积压增速只有 8%,低于 cRPO,反映新客户签约偏少

原文

承认 Flex Credits 消费模式对 Workday 是新事物,收入要滞后数月到一年,解释了 AI 热度高但增速不加速。
Yeah, I'll start. Thank you for the question, Kirk. So first of all, you're right in that it's early days. The difference on these agents versus traditional applications, they iterate and become better so much faster. So, I'm very optimistic that we're going to see ramping up usage of these agents faster than we ever saw of our apps. And, we're also new to the flex credit consumption model. And, that's a delayed gratitude, delayed gratification model that is frankly newer to Workday. Again, very optimistic. We're seeing great early signs. But I think that's one of the reasons for cautious optimism going into next year, because we are aggressively moving towards a hybrid model between subscription and this consumption model. I don't actually see it as crowding out. I actually see it as customers, new customers choosing Workday because of our agentic strategy, existing customers, they have an AI budget, and now we have products that actually fit in that AI budget, which is a big win for us. But again, a lot of these new AI products are consumption based, so we won't see the impact from the revenue until months or a year down the road.
2026-08-27 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Aneel Bhusri · 2026-08-27-corrected-transcript-workday-inc-wday-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-27-august-2026-4-30-pm-et.md L309
发言人背景:Workday 联合创始人、CEO (2026 年回任,现任);管理层视角
FY28 增速目标约 11%,等于 FY27 下半年增速,是一个明确的'不加速'信号。
With that in mind and ahead of our upcoming Financial Analyst Day, I'd like to provide some early context for how we're thinking about next year. Our current target for FY 2028 subscription revenue growth is consistent with our expected second half FY 2027 growth rate of approximately 11%. We also see potential upside across new products, including Sana Enterprise, Workday Extend with Data Cloud, and our AI agents, all of which are seeing great early demand. In addition, we expect our non-GAAP operating margin to expand by at least 2 percentage points next year.
2026-08-27 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Zane Rowe · 2026-08-27-corrected-transcript-workday-inc-wday-us-q2-2027-earnings-call-27-august-2026-4-30-pm-et.md L240
发言人背景:Workday CFO (现任)
卖方结论:AI 占比上升,但没让收入增速加速,这是 WDAY 和赢家组的核心差别。
UBS says WDAY reaffirmed FY28 targets of ~11% revenue growth and ~200bps OM expansion but offered no FY29+ outlook, prudent given AI transition and execution history. AI solutions are expected to drive ~70% of incremental ARR in FY28 (>50% FY27), yet revenue still decelerates from ~14% FY26 to ~11% FY27 as core HCM/FINS and app spending remain soft; UBS also flags limited FINS commentary. Neutral, PT $210 from $220.
2026-10-14 · Substack · UBS 软件分析师 (TMTB 转述,未具名) · 2026-10-14-tmtb-morning-wrap.md L361
发言人背景:UBS 卖方研究,评级 Neutral;经 TMTB 摘要转述,非原文研报

数据问题

  • WDAY 从低点反弹约 77%,幅度不弱;YTD -9%、1 年 -17%
  • 按员工人数计费 (FSE) 来自公司惯例,本次没在 KB 中找到原文;10-K 未核
  • Financial Analyst Day 原始转录未找到,只用 TMTB 和 UBS 转述
  • FY26 季度数据为第三方营收计算 (总收入,非订阅收入)
seat 落后者 HUBS · 现价 vs 前高 -71% 3 条原文

做什么:HubSpot 卖面向中小企业和中端市场的 CRM 平台 (营销、销售、客服、内容、运营等 Hub) 和 AI agent (Customer Agent、Prospecting Agent、Data Agent)。客户约 30.6 万家,主要是中小企业的市场和销售团队。

怎么收费:混合:按版本层级 + 核心 seat,叠加 HubSpot Credits 用量。公司披露:AI 变现靠 'core seats and credits';2026 年 4 月调整定价,降低多个 agent 的价格和入门价,推出按结果计费 (Customer Agent 按解决结果消耗 credits),允许客户设消费上限,并为 agent 提供试用。BTIG 称 hybrid usage pricing 在北欧试点。

为什么跌:2025 年 11 月至今,没有像样的反弹 (52 周高点 $496.99 → 低点 $169.65 出现在 2026 年 6 月;2025-12 月收盘 $401.3 → 现在约 $235) 中小企业 CRM 最容易被 AI 原生工具和 agent 替代;Q1 2026 业绩后 billings 放缓、NNARR 低于 cc 收入增速、AI 打包和定价变动有执行风险,单日 -24%;Q2 再降全年指引,单日 -17%。

AI 怎么变成收入:AI agent 按 credits 消耗收费 (按解决结果或动作计),Breeze Assistant 打包进核心 seat 以推动升级。但 4 月为了降低采用门槛主动降价、推试用、设消费上限,短期反而压低了收入。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:变少的风险大。中小企业预算收紧,'downgrade pressure' 和净升级受压,NRR 从 103% 降到 102%,全年指引持平;credits 用量在增长,但公司为了让客户用起来主动降价,单价下降。 计量的东西是不是自己的:部分是自己的:CRM 数据和上下文是自己的,但 agent 背后的模型 token 成本是外购的 (公司提到 'AI costs' 拖累利润率);中小企业客户也更容易切到 AI 原生工具。 产出能不能数:可数:工单解决率 72%、会议预约数、agentic actions (增长 3 倍) 都能计数,并已开始按结果计费。

时间线

  • 2026-05-07 Q1 2026 业绩:收入 +23% (cc +18%);NRR 103%;仍维持全年 NRR 扩张 1-2pt 的指引;但 billings 放缓,NNARR 低于 cc 收入增速 股价:-24% (TMTB)
  • 2026-08-05 Q2 2026 业绩 (反面案例:没有反转):收入 $911M,cc +17% (Q1 为 18%);NRR 102% (同比降 1pt);净增客户 7,000 (预期 9,000-10,000);billings $930M,低于 Street 的 $947M;Q3 指引 cc +15%;全年 cc 增速从 17% 下调到 16%;全年 NRR 指引从扩张 1-2pt 改为基本持平 股价:-17% (TMTB)
  • 2026-09-17 Analyst Day / INBOUND:给出 2030 non-GAAP OM 30% 目标 (FY27 约 23-24%);Pro+ 客户 agent 使用率 19% (年初 9%) 股价:未查到

空方论点

  • 增速连续下滑 (cc 18% → 17% → Q3 指引 15%),NNARR 低于收入增速,预示继续放缓
  • 中小企业预算压力,客户 'budget optimization',升级和净增客户都不及预期
  • 主动降价和试用让 AI 变现推迟,按结果计费也把单价压下来
  • 中小企业 CRM 最容易被 AI 原生工具和 agent 平台替代
  • 4 月服务条款修改后又撤回 (分析师提问中提到),执行层面反复

原文

CEO 承认 4 月定价改革 (降价、按结果计费、试用) 拉长了销售周期,同时中小企业因为'不可预测的 AI 成本'挤压预算,出现降级压力。这是 AI 让计费单位变少的直接证据。
Let me be direct about what happened. April got off to a slow start, and the quarter we expected did not fully materialize. Two factors drove the headwinds. The first was deliberate. As we discussed last quarter, customers adopting AI want proof of value before they commit, and predictability in what it costs. So in April, we leaned into those trends and made changes across product, pricing and go-to-market. On the product side, we introduced trials so customers can turn on agents and AIO in their own environment with their data for their workflows. The goal was simple, let customers experience real outcomes before they buy. We knew this would create some near-term headwinds by extending the buying process, but we believe it's the right long-term trade-off. Lowering the barrier to adoption and building customer confidence and outcomes will ultimately accelerate AI adoption. So far, this approach has worked best with upmarket customers, where our teams and partners provide the support needed to make the trials successful. Our focus is to scale that experience so every customer can adopt AI with the same confidence. On pricing, predictability has become a defining theme in AI adoption. Businesses have been hit with unpredictable token costs, and they want pricing that is transparent and tied to value. In response, we introduced outcome based pricing for several of our HubSpot agents, lowered entry price points and are providing customers clear visibility and control over usage and spend, including the ability to set thresholds that fit their budget. The second factor was a shift in the demand environment in Q2 with increased budget sensitivity. Businesses want greater confidence that their investments will position them for the AI platform shift. As a result, purchase decisions are facing greater scrutiny, buying committees are larger and more deals require C-suite and board approval, leading to longer sales cycles. For existing customers, unpredictable AI costs across the broader landscape are impacting budgets, leading to budget optimization and downgrade pressure.
2026-08-05 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Yamini Rangan · 2026-08-05-raw-transcript-hubspot-inc-hubs-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-5-august-2026-4-30-pm-et.md L39
发言人背景:HubSpot CEO (现任);管理层视角
把 NRR 指引从扩张 1-2pt 改为持平,净增客户下调到 5,000-6,000,NNARR 低于收入增速,三项领先指标同时恶化。
Our Q3 and full year guidance reflects our expectation that the headwinds we saw in Q2 will persist throughout the remainder of the year. We now expect quarterly net additions to be approximately 5,000 to 6000, and ASRPC growth to be in the low to mid single-digits in constant currency. For the full year of 2026, we expect net revenue retention to be roughly flat year-over-year. We expect customer dollar retention will remain strong and stable in the high-80s, and we continue to expect net upgrade rates to be pressured in the second half as a result of customer budget optimization. We now expect net new ARR growth to be below constant currency revenue growth for the fiscal year of 2026.
2026-08-05 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Kate Bueker (Kathryn Bueker) · 2026-08-05-raw-transcript-hubspot-inc-hubs-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-5-august-2026-4-30-pm-et.md L151
发言人背景:HubSpot CFO (现任)
记录市场反应 (-17%) 和 billings、指引相对 Street 的差距。
A disappointing print against elevated buy-side expectations. Revenue technically beat the Street, but growth came in slightly below the whisper bar, billings missed, 3Q guidance was cut below expectations, and the full-year constant-currency outlook was reduced. Positioning was mixed into earnings, but the combination of softer demand signals and lower estimates is likely enough to push more investors off the name and could weigh on app sw tomorrow after recent rally.
2026-08-05 · Substack · TMTB First Takes (作者匿名) · 2026-08-05-tmtb-sandisk-sndk-hubspot-hubs-wdc-dash-expedia-expe-first-takes.md L90
发言人背景:TMTB (Tech/Media/Telecom Breakfast) Substack 卖方/买方摘要通讯,作者匿名,汇总当日 sell-side 研报与 buy-side 讨论;视角:交易导向、偏短期股价反应,非公司内部信息

数据问题

  • 2025 年各季增速为报告口径计算,受美元走弱影响 (2026 年报告口径比 cc 高约 3pt)
  • raw transcript (非校正稿),个别字词可能有误
  • Analyst Day 转录 (KB 中有 2026-09-17 文件) 未细读
  • EV/NTM Sales 未查到
seat 落后者 ADBE · 现价 vs 前高 -55% 3 条原文

做什么:Adobe 卖创意软件 (Creative Cloud:Photoshop、Premiere、Illustrator)、生成式 AI Firefly、文档软件 (Acrobat/PDF) 和企业营销/客户体验平台 (AEM、AEP、GenStudio,2026 年 4 月并购 Semrush)。客户包括个人创作者、设计师、知识工作者和大企业市场部。

怎么收费:seat 订阅为主,叠加生成式 credits。公司披露:Creative Cloud/Acrobat 按 seat 订阅;Firefly 走 app 订阅 + Firefly credit packs;企业版有 bundled credits、高级层级、按 seat 和按用量合同。2026 年 6 月决定推迟下半年 Creative Cloud 价格线调整 (line optimizations),优先用免费增值 (freemium) 获取用户。

为什么跌:持续下跌,2026 年 6 月 Q2 业绩后创新低 (52 周低点 $190.12;52 周高点 $363.70) 'AI disintermediation':生成式 AI 让创意产出更容易,专业 seat 的溢价被压缩,Canva/Affinity 免费、AI 原生工具竞争;Q2 主动推迟提价、转向 freemium,等于把 FY26 有机 ARR 砍掉约 $480-500M,CFO 离职,加上 CEO 交接,单日 -8%。

AI 怎么变成收入:Firefly app 订阅和 credit packs、企业 Firefly (定制模型) 按 credits 和合同收费;AI 打包进 Creative Cloud 和 Acrobat 高级版。现阶段策略是先用免费增值扩大 MAU,再'在合适时机'转化为 ARR。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:偏负面。AI 让单个创意工作者产出更多,企业创意团队可能用更少的 seat 完成同样工作;Adobe 自己推迟提价、转向 freemium,NNARR 同比下滑约 37-39%。credits 用量在增长,但只占 ARR 约 2.4%。 计量的东西是不是自己的:部分是自己的:Firefly 有自研模型,但也接入合作伙伴模型 (如 Kling),被计量的生成量部分是转卖第三方模型能力;推理成本导致毛利率同比降约 100bps。 产出能不能数:可数:生成次数和 credits 消耗可计数,但创意'产出'的价值难以按结果定价。

时间线

  • 2026-06-11 Q2 FY26 业绩 (反面案例):收入和 EPS 超预期并上调,但宣布 freemium 战略、推迟 Creative Cloud 价格调整,下调个人订阅下半年 ARR 预期 (约 -$480-500M);AI-first ARR >$500M (3x);CFO Dan Durn 离职 股价:-8% (TMTB)
  • 2026-09-10 Q3 FY26 业绩 + CEO 交接 (Anil Chakravarthy 12 月 1 日接任):收入 $6.76B,+13% (cc +12%);ending ARR $27.5B,+11.2% (上季 12.5%,含 Semrush);NNARR 约 $400M,同比约 -37% 到 -39%;cRPO +9% (上季约 13%);全年 ARR 增长目标 10.2% 维持不变 股价:盘后 -2.5%,次日 TMTB 标为 -5%

空方论点

  • AI 降低专业创意工具的溢价,内容量增长不等于软件支出增长 (TMTB)
  • 有机 ARR 放缓、NNARR 同比约 -39%、cRPO 降到 9%、合同期限缩短
  • freemium 转化没有时间表,也没有转化率目标
  • 推理成本先行,毛利率和 OM 下降 (OM 44%,同比降约 230bps)
  • 管理层大换血:新 CEO 12 月上任,CFO 仍是临时,创意业务负责人离任

原文

公司主动用 ARR 增速换用户数 (freemium),和'AI 驱动用量收入加速'的赢家路径相反。
Adobe's AI innovation has driven an impressive 3x year-over-year increase in AI-first ARR to greater than $500 million. We believe now is the time to aggressively acquire the next generation of Adobe loyalists. The strategic shift to acquire more freemium customers through Acrobat and Firefly lowers our second half ARR growth expectations from individual subscribers. We believe these changes do make Adobe even stronger.
2026-06-11 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Shantanu Narayen (按语境推断) · 2026-06-11-corrected-transcript-adobe-inc-adbe-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-11-june-2026-5-00-pm-et.md L92
发言人背景:Adobe 董事长兼 CEO (2026-12-01 起转任执行董事长);转录稿未逐段标注发言人,从感谢 CFO 的语境推断为 CEO
把 AI-first ARR 放回分母 (约占 ARR 2.4%),并指出口径包含 Semrush、Firefly 指标不可与旧口径相乘。
* **AI.** AI-first ARR exceeded $650M, more than +150% y/y and approximately +30% sequentially against the prior disclosed threshold. That is real monetization, but still only approximately 2.4% of total ARR, and the definition includes Semrush AI products. Firefly app and credit-pack ARR grew 40% q/q, with video usage and broader credit consumption supporting expansion. Importantly, that metric excludes Firefly Enterprise and cannot be multiplied against the prior, broader $300M Firefly ARR disclosure. Acrobat AI Assistant MAU doubled q/q, but usage growth is not equivalent to growth in paid subscriptions.
2026-09-11 · Substack · TMTB Morning Wrap (作者匿名,含 callback 内容) · 2026-09-11-tmtb-morning-wrap.md L132
发言人背景:TMTB (Tech/Media/Telecom Breakfast) Substack 卖方/买方摘要通讯,作者匿名,汇总当日 sell-side 研报与 buy-side 讨论;视角:交易导向、偏短期股价反应,非公司内部信息
空头核心论点:AI 让创意产出变得廉价,压低 seat 溢价,'内容变多' 不等于 '软件收入变多'。
**The broader bear thesis** is not that creative activity disappears. It is that AI makes useful creative output easier to produce while reducing the premium users will pay for specialized tools, established workflows and professional seats. Growing content volume therefore need not translate into growing software spend at historical pricing. Competition is also moving beyond isolated generation tools into more complete workflows. Affinity, for example, offers professional design, photo editing and page layout free for individuals, supports common creative file formats and integrates with Canva, with optional AI features tied to premium plans. That does not establish equivalent capability or prove customer losses, but it raises the burden on ADBE to demonstrate why users should convert to paid products rather than remain free or use alternatives.
2026-09-11 · Substack · TMTB Morning Wrap (作者匿名) · 2026-09-11-tmtb-morning-wrap.md L153
发言人背景:TMTB (Tech/Media/Telecom Breakfast) Substack 卖方/买方摘要通讯,作者匿名,汇总当日 sell-side 研报与 buy-side 讨论;视角:交易导向、偏短期股价反应,非公司内部信息

数据问题

  • ARR 和 AI-first ARR 均含 Semrush (2026 年 4 月并购),有机增速有争议 (TMTB 称上季有机约 10.5%)
  • Q3 业绩后跌幅:盘后 -2.5% (EOD first take) 与次日 -5% 两个口径
  • Q2 FY26 季度营收 $6.62B 来自第三方 vcpscanner
  • Q2 引文发言人为推断
  • FCF/SBC 未摘录完整
seat 落后者 MNDY · 现价 vs 前高 -71% 3 条原文

做什么:monday.com 卖协作和工作管理平台 (Work Management),以及 monday CRM、monday service、monday dev。主要客户是中小企业团队,正在向大企业扩张。传统上按 seat 分档订阅,主要靠线上效果广告获客。

怎么收费:seat + credits (2026 年 5 月推出强制 AI 计价)。公司披露:2026 年 5 月上线新的 'seat and credit pricing model'。以前客户扩张只能靠加人加 seat,现在可以买更多 AI 用量 (top up)。分析师称其为 'new mandatory AI pricing model'。

为什么跌:2025 年 11 月起大跌,2026 年 4 月见底 ($57.50;52 周高点 $210.49) 中小企业 seat 模式受 AI 替代威胁;线上效果营销和 top-of-funnel 获客变弱 (公司指引不假设恢复);增速从 30% 降到 20% 出头;2024-2025 年提价效应消退,NDR 承压。

AI 怎么变成收入:强制 seat + credits 计价:AI agent 在工作区里执行任务、消耗 credits,客户用完后续购 (top up),第一次出现按 seat 之外的扩张通道。

单位测试:单位变多还是变少:seat 部分偏负面:中小企业团队规模受 AI 压缩,获客变弱,NDR 从 110% 降到约 108%。credits 是新的增长通道,但 AI ARR 基数小 (占 NNARR 17%,而 NNARR 本身在下滑,Cantor)。 计量的东西是不是自己的:部分是自己的:工作区数据和流程是自己的,但 AI 动作依赖第三方模型,毛利率从 90% 降到 89%。 产出能不能数:可数:agent 执行的任务、credits 消耗都能计数。

时间线

  • 2026-05-11 Q1 2026 业绩:收入 $351M (+24%),营收、EBIT、FCF 全面超预期;NDR 110%,但管理层预计年底 NDR 小幅下降 股价:盘中一度 +20% 以上,收盘 +6.5% (TMTB)
  • 2026-08-10 Q2 2026 业绩 + 7 月 22 日裁员约 20%:收入 $365M (+22%);NDR 109%,预计降到约 108%;AI ARR 环比翻倍,占 NNARR 的 17%;Q3 指引 +16-17%,比 Street 低约 $4M;全年 $1,466-1,474M 不变 (没有把 Q2 超预期传导到全年);RPO +34% 至 $937M 股价:-9% (TMTB);次日 Cantor 下调至 Neutral,目标价 $112 → $90

空方论点

  • 增速从约 30% 持续降到 Q3 指引 16-17%,NNARR 下滑 (Cantor)
  • 中小企业获客 (效果营销) 没有恢复,公司指引也不假设恢复
  • NDR 因为提价效应消退而承压
  • 裁员 20% 带来执行风险,管理层没有把 Q2 超预期传导到全年
  • 新产品 (CRM、service、dev) KPI 偏弱 (Cantor)

原文

披露 AI ARR 占 NNARR 17%,以及 5 月推出的 seat + credit 新计价模型,是 seat 公司转向混合计费的样本。
Thank you, Roy. The clearest evidence that our strategy is working is what we're seeing in AI adoption. AI ARR doubled from Q1 to Q2 and now represents 17% of net new ARR added in the quarter. This is a meaningful signal, not because the absolute number is large yet, but because the rate of change tells us customers are actively choosing our AI capabilities, not simply inheriting them. Equally encouraging is the early reception to our new seat and credit pricing model launched in May. The adoption has been strong out of the gate and customers are engaging deeply enough with our AI product to invest beyond the default package. Pricing models only work when customers see value worth paying for. We are beginning to see that.
2026-08-10 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Eran Zinman · 2026-08-10-corrected-transcript-monday-com-ltd-mndy-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-10-august-2026-8-30-am-et.md L47
发言人背景:monday.com 联合创始人、联合 CEO (现任);管理层视角
明确说明:以前扩张只能靠加 seat,现在可以靠 AI 用量扩张,正好对应 unit test 的核心问题。
Yeah. Maybe just to add what Roy said. Before the changes in the product and the pricing, the only way customers could expand was to add more people and more seats. This is the first time that we added the new agent that we see customers expand not only on the seats for humans, but on AI consumption. And for us, this represent a new vector of growth that didn't exist before, which is part of why we believe so much in our strategy and why we believe so much this is a fundamental change in how the company will be able to grow going forward.
2026-08-10 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Eran Zinman · 2026-08-10-corrected-transcript-monday-com-ltd-mndy-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-10-august-2026-8-30-am-et.md L162
发言人背景:monday.com 联合创始人、联合 CEO (现任)
解释为什么不把 Q2 超预期传导到全年:裁员 20% 的短期冲击和获客端的不确定性。
Yeah. Hi, Howard. So, as I mentioned earlier with regards to the philosophy, it hasn't changed. Few things we took into account I said earlier that we're observing the near-term cost of the 20% workforce and this is something that we had to take into account because there is going to be a short-term impact. And we did not want to layer an aggressive top line rate on top of the execution risk that hasn't fully played out yet. We said that at the beginning of the year also with regards to the top of funnel, that we took it into account. And we prefer to under promise and over deliver through a transition. This is a big transition for us than raise revenue guidance now and with some uncertainties we still have throughout the year.
2026-08-10 · FactSet 业绩会/会议转录 · Eliran Glazer · 2026-08-10-corrected-transcript-monday-com-ltd-mndy-us-q2-2026-earnings-call-10-august-2026-8-30-am-et.md L194
发言人背景:monday.com CFO (现任)

数据问题

  • NNARR 下滑只来自 Cantor 转述,公司未披露具体数
  • 2025 年各季增速为第三方营收计算
  • MNDY 从 4 月低点反弹 +63%,但 YTD -37%、1 年 -49%,是本组中最弱的之一
  • EV/NTM Sales 未查到

附:数据与限制

  • 价格:IBKR 周线 (2024-10 到 2026-10-19),15 只股票加 IGV;CRWD 4 拆 1 (2026-07-02 生效)、NOW 已按拆股调整
  • 公司数据:各公司业绩新闻稿、10-Q 和 FactSet 业绩会转录;2025 年部分季度增速是 subagent 用新闻稿数字计算,或来自数据聚合网站 (档案里标注 "计算")
  • 原文:11 家公司共 64 条,FactSet 转录、Third Bridge、GuidePoint、Substack (TMTB、Funda) 来自 Knowledge Base;除 1 条 URL 来源外,全部用脚本逐字比对原文。每条都是发言人的完整回答,没有删节
  • 推断:"现价 vs 前高" 是事实;"pattern" 是从四家归纳的,不是统计结论;第 6 节的套用表里 ESTC、TWLO、ADYEN、ZS、GTLB 只按商业模式判断,没有做研究
  • 已知冲突:SNOW 前高按周收盘是 $274.88 (2025-10-27 当周),subagent 用日线收盘 $277.14;SNOW 的 52 周高点 $384.56 是 9 月盘中价,周收盘口径看现价仍高于 2025 年高点。NET 的 TMTB "33x CY27" 和一致预期算出的约 29x 口径不一致